Chuck Ross
Investigative Reporter
April 06, 2020 8:01 AM ET
The researchers whose model the White House has used to help guide its coronavirus response lowered their estimate Sunday for the number of Americans projected to die during the first wave of the pandemic.
The model, from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, now projects 81,766 deaths in the United States through Aug. 1, with most of the fatalities occurring by the middle of May. The IHME team projected a range of between 49,431 and 136,401 for the same period.
Before Sunday, the researchers estimated a range of between 39,966 and 177,866 deaths in the United States from coronavirus, with a best-guess estimate of 93,531 deaths.
The 11,765 fewer deaths would mark a 14% decrease for the model’s target projection, and a 30% decrease for the worst-case scenario.
The White House’s coronavirus task force has relied on several models to develop policies to respond to the pandemic, but the IHME projection has tracked closest to the administration’s expected number of fatalities.
Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Tony Fauci, the top scientists on the task force, said last week that they expect between 100,000 and 200,000 fatalities in the first wave of the pandemic. Birx has mentioned the IHME model multiple times during the task force’s press briefings.
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https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/06/white-house-coronavirus-projections-model-fatalities-deaths/
