Author Topic: Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME Model Used by White House; Actual Numbers are a Fraction of  (Read 417 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline txradioguy

  • Propaganda NCOIC
  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 23,534
  • Gender: Male
  • Rule #39
Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).

Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.

The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia.

https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/04/02/analyst-discovers-a-major-flaw-in-imhe-coronavirus-model-used-by-white-house-heres-why/
The libs/dems of today are the Quislings of former years. The cowards who would vote a fraud into office in exchange for handouts from the devil.

Here lies in honored glory an American soldier, known but to God

THE ESTABLISHMENT IS THE PROBLEM...NOT THE SOLUTION

Republicans Don't Need A Back Bench...They Need a BACKBONE!

Offline Smokin Joe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 60,555
  • I was a "conspiracy theorist". Now I'm just right.
I am just shocked that the rest of the world doesn't exist on the NYC/NJ paradigm. How ever would we live?
(Sorry, Valley Gurl is the other side of the map, my bad.)

How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline jmyrlefuller

  • J. Myrle Fuller
  • Cat Mod
  • *****
  • Posts: 22,737
  • Gender: Male
  • Nonpartisan hack
    • Fullervision
Most of the country began social distancing to various degrees at the same time, the second week of March, which is when all the sporting events started to get canceled. Now, they've taken that to various lengths, but New York and New Jersey already had so many infections floating around that they were already primed to explode no matter what anyone did. Remember, the testing is about two weeks behind, and New York City has so many people that their R0 was going to be higher. Those still well behind that are going to see the results of that distancing and have slower rates of infection.
New profile picture in honor of Public Domain Day 2024

Offline Smokin Joe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 60,555
  • I was a "conspiracy theorist". Now I'm just right.
Most of the country began social distancing to various degrees at the same time, the second week of March, which is when all the sporting events started to get canceled. Now, they've taken that to various lengths, but New York and New Jersey already had so many infections floating around that they were already primed to explode no matter what anyone did. Remember, the testing is about two weeks behind, and New York City has so many people that their R0 was going to be higher. Those still well behind that are going to see the results of that distancing and have slower rates of infection.
We didn't have a big Lunar New Year celebration we were all told to enjoy because the virus was way overstated, either.  Lower population density, the relative lack of communally shared enclosed spaces (elevators, taxicabs, subways, etc.) in flyover country generally reduces pathogen exchange.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Online roamer_1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,593
Most of the country began social distancing to various degrees at the same time, the second week of March, which is when all the sporting events started to get canceled. Now, they've taken that to various lengths, but New York and New Jersey already had so many infections floating around that they were already primed to explode no matter what anyone did. Remember, the testing is about two weeks behind, and New York City has so many people that their R0 was going to be higher. Those still well behind that are going to see the results of that distancing and have slower rates of infection.

That could be right - but there also could be a time delay sequenced into it, along with a preference that favors old-style inner city neighborhoods...

If that is the case as an instance, we should see Detroit and Chicago blowing up later in much the same fashion...

West coast cities generally (perhaps omitting Frisco, Portland, and Seattle as 'old school') are more sprawling, and less susceptible in their modes of mass transit, may show a different sort of infection curve, as will generally more rural areas.

Offline truth_seeker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28,386
  • Gender: Male
  • Common Sense Results Oriented Conservative Veteran
The word "quarantine" means 40 days, for time ships waited outside the harbor of Venice in the 15th century 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine

Wiki states the practice dates to Biblical times
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln