I guess I'm having a senior moment...but why is the focus on testing so important?
@berdie Let me take a swing at that....
The one number the public sees and understand is the
"Death rate" (for want of a better term). That is represented by a simple ratio, deaths to infected people. The numerator of that ratio (the top), "deaths" is fairly easy to quantify. Did the patient die from COVID-19? Yes or no. Those are then totaled up. We have to do that indirectly in a case like China, a still-closed society. That's where we get clues from things like missing cell phone customers (>20 Million) and cremation urns delivered.
The denominator (bottom) is a different task. How many were infected? Without widespread testing, that is a number not so easily toted. And that's where all the uncertainty is in fixing the death rate: the denominator. To get an accurate fix, you have to have lots of testing to see who was infected but developed no symptoms and that's where we are playing catch-up.
That's an analysis from an armchair statistician.