We've been had, and Trump knows it

[Smokin Joe]

@Right_in_Virginia

Early times. Too soon to tell yet.

The one thing we know for certain is that by grabbing a disease and making it political,the Dims went from "Not a chance in hell!" of winning the WH and controlling both houses,to "Maybe they will pull it off".

Depends on how much "territory" the Dims can get from claiming the RNC and the President are "against helping the American People in their time of need and disease. If this thing gets out of control and/or somehow the RNC manages to override Trump and cut off all the aid packages,the Dims have a solid shot.

On the other hand,if the Republicans cut their losses by playing along with the aid packages,the Dims are disarmed and they have nothing to run on and everything to run FROM.

All true, until there is an effective medical treatment for the disease. While we may have that, and while those drugs are approved for other uses, clearing the jungle of red tape from the path we need to follow getting that treatment in use where it will do some good is the greatest challenge.
While approving the widespread use of a new use for existing pharmacology is not to be taken lightly, few who perceive they are on their death beds will reject the idea.

When that happens (and I believe it may have already), the rug is pulled out from under this event, and America can do what it needs to: get back to work and restore commerce; recover economically.
IF the GOP wants to have the White House, the House, and the Senate, it needs to LOUDLY make this the priority, enough so that even the biased MSM cannot cloud or obscure that.

What is killing the economy is the 1-2 punch of fear of a potentially lethal disease, coupled with all those people who "Are from the government and here to help us". 
People who have skin in the game, from small business owners to those who depend on economically brachiating on those paychecks they earn there, are only going to go under a little more slowly in relief efforts.
Typically, government fiscal relief is as timely as a fire department that arrives at the scene of the burning house a week after the call for help. Address the problem at its root, swiftly, definitively, and go on from there.

Or differently put, if you knew that there was medication which, for under $100 could cure you of this bug, would you forego working for weeks to avoid the disease?

[sneakypete]

While I can see flattening the curve a little, to avoid overwhelming medical facilities and to buy more time for remedies to be discerned and produced, protracted lockdown of the economy is dangerous.
I definitely do not approve of 6 trillion in debt to bail out an economy.  I am sure those measures will end up laced with pork which benefits a few people greatly while the rest of America is fed the watery gruel of a check that won't rent a 2 bedroom apartment here for a month.
Avoid the "need" for that "bailout". Even if the isolation is needed for a couple weeks to slow things down.
If anything, let me take the nearly $20,000 in tax deductions for last year I could have taken three years ago in employee business expenses (mostly vehicle expenses necessary to employment and for the (expensive) flame resistant clothing the government requires me to wear, but will not let me deduct the cost of).

The 600 lb gorilla in that room is the current crash in oil prices, little mentioned in the flurry of virus stories. Cheaper gasoline, while nice, will not give the economy the boost the oil boom of 06-14 did, by any means, and current oil prices are not even enough to sustain current production, much less cause the sort of employment that pulled this economy out of impending depression then. So while people could work their way out of the economic troubles associated with the last bailout by running away from home and going to work in the oilfields, this time that isn't an option. Layoffs and CAPEX cuts in the energy sector are happening and some are fairly severe. At the same time court rulings are attacking the very pipelines, the arteries along which that economic lifeblood flows.

Another younger brother to that gorilla is that while people aren't putting in their 32 or more hours a week to maintain their Obamacare insurance, they lose eligibility for it. So, in the midst of this crisis over a disease, one which may involve significant medical costs, people are and will be losing their health insurance willy-nilly. A day in the ICU will cost about $10K for day one, so the bailout won't touch the expense involved if someone gets sick.

If the Hydroxychloroquine/Z-Pack (Azithromycin) therapy works and is cheap, maybe we can get back to work.
Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to vaccinate against, otherwise, we'd have vaccines against the common cold and we cannot expect to have an economy left after months or a year of this current paradigm, especially under Democrat control.

Yes, the Pubbies have been painted into the usual corner of being damned if they do and damned if they don't when it comes to this relief bill. Don't let it happen again. Fast track effective medication, which the tests so far seem to indicate works, and let's get this stuff taken care of.

@Smokin Joe

EXCELLENT post!

[Free Vulcan]

I've been middle of the road on the whole virus epidemic. Take it seriously, but don't panic.

There have been too many at both extremes, not enough in the middle. Govts have a very precarious tightrope to walk - containing the disease while not crashing their economy.

Alot of govts have done neither, or erred too far to one side or the other. And too many like the the Democrats have used it for their own purposes.

I'm worried about the economic fallout. The coronavirus is a little snowball, random or manmade, that is now rolling downhill and getting bigger as it destabilizes the world economy.

Oil prices being the first casualty. What I'm most worried about is that we are going into trillions more debt, while the people who buy a sizeable chunk of it - China and other Asian countries - are economically crippled themselves and may not be able to continue that if the world economy goes into the tank.

Which could spike rates and ultimately render DC impotent, or worse, as the economy gets dragged down.

[txradioguy]

Uhhh..... if Trump knows we've "been had"....

then why did he just yesterday sign that 2 TRILLION dollar "relief" bill?

Hmm?

I don't think you'd like the answer.

[Smokin Joe]

I've been middle of the road on the whole virus epidemic. Take it seriously, but don't panic.

There have been too many at both extremes, not enough in the middle. Govts have a very precarious tightrope to walk - containing the disease while not crashing their economy.

Alot of govts have done neither, or erred too far to one side or the other. And too many like the the Democrats have used it for their own purposes.

I'm worried about the economic fallout. The coronavirus is a little snowball, random or manmade, that is now rolling downhill and getting bigger as it destabilizes the world economy.

Oil prices being the first casualty. What I'm most worried about is that we are going into trillions more debt, while the people who buy a sizeable chunk of it - China and other Asian countries - are economically crippled themselves and may not be able to continue that if the world economy goes into the tank.

Which could spike rates and ultimately render DC impotent, or worse, as the economy gets dragged down.

Actually, the main driver in the oil price crash happened a couple days before the Coronavirus panic started being pimped in the MSM. It was quiet, coming days after CAPEX announcements (which have already been revised) the Saudis and Russians got in a spat while discussing production limits, the Russians walked out, the Saudis basically said "Screw you, we're taking the lid off and are going to produce as much as we can". With very low lift costs and great reserves, they can do that, and the market tumbled, hidden behind Coronavirus headlines.  For that to abate, for some support in the international crude oil market,  the Saudis and Russians will have to sort out their differences and set production caps. That might take a while, and typically in the oil patch, the longer things sit idle, the more expensive it is to get them going again, so basically, that throws a monkey wrench into the closing years of my career--the worst years to have things hit the skids. 

I'm taking a other week to look over options, but will end up doing construction work, stocking shelves somewhere, or some such to keep the lights on. Twelve  hundred bucks might help, but it won't help much.

[sneakypete]

I'm taking a other week to look over options, but will end up doing construction work, stocking shelves somewhere, or some such to keep the lights on. Twelve  hundred bucks might help, but it won't help much.

@Smokin Joe

I was saying just yesterday I was going to donate mine to charity,but I have decided to play it safe by converting it to cash in domination's down to 5 bucks,and saving it in case my SS or VA check doesn't come in.

Going to try to convert some possessions I never or rarely use into cash,too.

Better to be safe than sorry,and I can always donate the 1200 bucks to charity later.

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

I was saying just yesterday I was going to donate mine to charity,but I have decided to play it safe by converting it to cash in domination's down to 5 bucks,and saving it in case my SS or VA check doesn't come in.

Going to try to convert some possessions I never or rarely use into cash,too.

Better to be safe than sorry,and I can always donate the 1200 bucks to charity later.

Somewhere in the midst of all this, I will likely end up 'donating' food, meals, supplies, labor, or just misc help to people I know and some I don't equal to or over that check. I'd do that anyway. 

[libertybele]

I've been middle of the road on the whole virus epidemic. Take it seriously, but don't panic.

There have been too many at both extremes, not enough in the middle. Govts have a very precarious tightrope to walk - containing the disease while not crashing their economy.

Alot of govts have done neither, or erred too far to one side or the other. And too many like the the Democrats have used it for their own purposes.

I'm worried about the economic fallout. The coronavirus is a little snowball, random or manmade, that is now rolling downhill and getting bigger as it destabilizes the world economy.

Oil prices being the first casualty. What I'm most worried about is that we are going into trillions more debt, while the people who buy a sizeable chunk of it - China and other Asian countries - are economically crippled themselves and may not be able to continue that if the world economy goes into the tank.

Which could spike rates and ultimately render DC impotent, or worse, as the economy gets dragged down.

Take into consideration we are just beginning to experience this pandemic in our country.  There is a possibility that all states will eventually have a large number of cases and fatalities like New York and consequently, the economic downfall will continue.  It is estimated that appx. 100,000 - 200,000 people will die and appx. 2,000,000 people will become infected.

Other than to let things go back to business as usual, there's no way to turn the economy back to the way it was -- tremendous debt has been created.  IF people were to go back to work, there is the possibility that many of those people returning to work could be out of work again because they contract the virus -- the economy still suffers.

What is concerning is -- yes, there are small business loans, extended unemployment and the stimulus -- but that's a small shot in the arm if people and business are going to be laid off for another 5-6 weeks.  $1,200/person is a tremendous economic burden on our economy, but that $1,200 hasn't gotten into people's hands and they've been without  $$ for weeks. Unemployment cases have skyrocketed and are backlogged.   

[Free Vulcan]

Actually, the main driver in the oil price crash happened a couple days before the Coronavirus panic started being pimped in the MSM. It was quiet, coming days after CAPEX announcements (which have already been revised) the Saudis and Russians got in a spat while discussing production limits, the Russians walked out, the Saudis basically said "Screw you, we're taking the lid off and are going to produce as much as we can". With very low lift costs and great reserves, they can do that, and the market tumbled, hidden behind Coronavirus headlines.  For that to abate, for some support in the international crude oil market,  the Saudis and Russians will have to sort out their differences and set production caps. That might take a while, and typically in the oil patch, the longer things sit idle, the more expensive it is to get them going again, so basically, that throws a monkey wrench into the closing years of my career--the worst years to have things hit the skids. 

I'm taking a other week to look over options, but will end up doing construction work, stocking shelves somewhere, or some such to keep the lights on. Twelve  hundred bucks might help, but it won't help much.

True, but in the end the coronavirus is going to result in one whopping lack of demand, regardless if the very ill-timed posturing by the Saudis and Ruskies to exacerbate it with a ridiculous jump in supply.

Assuming it was ill-timed and not really just to take advantage of the situation to stick it to American producers.

[Smokin Joe]

True, but in the end the coronavirus is going to result in one whopping lack of demand, regardless if the very ill-timed posturing by the Saudis and Ruskies to exacerbate it with a ridiculous jump in supply.

Assuming it was ill-timed and not really just to take advantage of the situation to stick it to American producers.

Yep. For the industry, it is a double whammy. And that is assuming this is coincidental and not just economic warfare steps taken in anticipation of the reaction to a growing pandemic.