Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2

[jmyrlefuller]

That's the difference between "non-reporting" and "under-reporting."  I find it curious the number of total cases - deaths != recoveries.  That's a red flag for the data-taker in me.  It's binary:  People either recover, or they die.  Can the discrepancy be covered by still-active cases?  The totals @Hoodat posted suggest there are some recoveries not being reported.  I think there is uncertainty about how long it is between a positive test and a patient is declared "recovered."

IOW, I would not chalk that up to nefarious actions, at least not yet.  By the end of the month that judgement may change.

You look at New York. You see that they are indeed plateauing. ICU usage is down. Hospitalization is flat. That's the key sign that recoveries are catching up to new cases.

In the rural counties around here, where there's a lot more robust testing and contract tracing per capita, the situation is about one recovery for every new case.

Now the question is going to be how quickly can active cases go down?

[Bigun]

The data is nonsense and has been since the get-go.

Yep!  100%

[Cyber Liberty]

Again, much of my information is coming from my own state, but I know the Governor, Lt.Gov, and legislature are working this weekend on the specifics of how we come out of this.  They have had a game plan all the way, and the destruction of Ohio's economy was never part of it.

Next week, they'll begin telling us where we're headed, and I have confidence that they will be turning things around as quickly as it can be done.

I like your Republican Governor better than my Republican Governor.   Mine does what the politicians of the two large cities want, us rurals be damned.

[Cyber Liberty]

So you're allowing yourself to agree with me?

I'll be darned.....

Believe whatever you feel you need to believe.  I have been saying for many days now that recoveries are going unreported.  It didn't begin as an agreement to something you posted.

This is why I say y'all are talking past each other.  As a disinterested third party, I think you agree on the big things.

[PeteS in CA]

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/04/09/seattles-army-built-field-hospital-is-coming-down-without-treating-a-single-patient/

Seattle’s Army-built field hospital is coming down without treating a single patient
Author: Joseph O'Sullivan, The Seattle Times

SEATTLE -- Even as some questions remain about the extent of the outbreak in Washington state, Gov. Jay Inslee Wednesday announced he would return to the federal government the field hospital recently assembled in Seattle’s CenturyLink Field Event Center to help the health care system cope with the new coronavirus.

With the USNS Comfort still stationed in New York, and the USNS Mercy in Los Angeles, Inslee's decision could mark the first return of hospital beds to the federal government during the pandemic from anywhere in the nation.

Inslee in recent days has cited more favorable projections for what's to come next in the outbreak of COVID-19 in Washington, the state that at one time led the nation in cases and deaths. As of Wednesday afternoon, there were 9,097 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Washington, with 421 deaths.

[musiclady]

This is why I say y'all are talking past each other.  As a disinterested third party, I think you agree on the big things.

Of course we do.

Which is why I've been confused by the nitpicking. 

[musiclady]

I like your Republican Governor better than my Republican Governor.   Mine does what the politicians of the two large cities want, us rurals be damned.

I really like how he's protecting First Amendment rights.

At yesterday's press conference there were protesters outside the State House yelling, and he stated very clearly that they had protected rights and they wouldn't be stopped from protesting.  He also said they wouldn't shut down worship services, but that he was asking pastors to "love their neighbors."  IOW, protect your congregations from disease by having online worship like the vast majority of pastors are doing.

He's very business oriented too, so I'm sure he'll get things up and running as soon as possible.  (I just found out from my M-i-L that he was on Cavuto today.  I'm very proud of my state right now.  Buckeye STRONG.   

[Smokin Joe]

04-10-2020 | 19:52 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	3.371 ↑	4.094 ↓
United States	1.462 ↓	18.410 ↓
China	23.218 ↑	1.057 ↓

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 48,773
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 28.5 %  ↓

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Recoveries in the US continue to go unreported.

In North Dakota, recoveries are at 105. deaths at 6, for a ratio of 17.5:1, but it appears our recovery numbers are kept up.
Total Cases to recoveries 278:105 so far (2.65)

97.7% of the 9608 tested so far were negative.

[LadyLiberty]

@musiclady @Hoodat

John's Hopkins admits in their disclaimer (below the map) that the numbers they report on recoveries are on the low side.  They hobgood ways of tracking confirmed positives and deaths, but no good way to track recoveries.  Their disclaimer: ".

Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number."

[LadyLiberty]

@musiclady @Hoodat

John's Hopkins admits in their disclaimer (below the map) that the numbers they report on recoveries are on the low side.  They have good ways of tracking confirmed positives and deaths, but no good way to track recoveries.  Their disclaimer: ".

Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number."

[bigheadfred]

In North Dakota, recoveries are at 105. deaths at 6, for a ratio of 17.5:1, but it appears our recovery numbers are kept up.
Total Cases to recoveries 278:105 so far (2.65)

97.7% of the 9608 tested so far were negative.

The President AND Congress have done as much, or more, to address this.

How many mandates have been ordered by the president? Has he ordered martial law?

Or, has have so many people have bitched about the lack thereof, are states asserting their rights as states to order their states?

[musiclady]

@musiclady @Hoodat

John's Hopkins admits in their disclaimer (below the map) that the numbers they report on recoveries are on the low side.  They hobgood ways of tracking confirmed positives and deaths, but no good way to track recoveries.  Their disclaimer: ".

Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number."

Since there is no real way at this point with limited testing to even get the cases correct, it makes sense that tracking the recoveries at this point is impossible.

The numbers won't be settled until everyone can get a serology test to see if they've had it.

THEN we will know how many have recovered.

[roamer_1]

In North Dakota, recoveries are at 105. deaths at 6, for a ratio of 17.5:1, but it appears our recovery numbers are kept up.
Total Cases to recoveries 278:105 so far (2.65)

97.7% of the 9608 tested so far were negative.

We got our first two in-the-wild cases here in the valley. Till now they've all been proven shipped-in cases. 

[Smokin Joe]

We got our first two in-the-wild cases here in the valley. Till now they've all been proven shipped-in cases. 

The vast majority of our cases are believed to be either close contact (104) or community spread (108), the rest travel related or still under investigation.

[roamer_1]

The vast majority of our cases are believed to be either close contact (104) or community spread (108), the rest travel related or still under investigation.

I think the most of ours have been medical (the first one was a doc that had traveled), or rich folks coming here to hide out... and the resulting contacts.

[truth_seeker]

USNS Mercy in Los Angeles/Long Beach is taking some group elder care patients, wher they tend to have the virus spread to several patientss, that are age-condition compromised.

That situation seems to be one danger situation, in "hotspots."

 

[jmyrlefuller]

We got our first two in-the-wild cases here in the valley. Till now they've all been proven shipped-in cases. 

The travel cases are going to go down as people travel less.

Where I'm at, the county has done a generally very good job of identifying how each case (15 right now, 3 recovered) got it. The first few were travel in the cities. More recent ones have generally been health care workers and people in close contact (some of whom have no symptoms) with other cases. Of those 15, only 3 have no explanation as to how they got it.

Numbers of people in quarantine have largely been level the past few weeks, hovering between the 40s and about 100. They'll put 50 into quarantine and take 20 out each of the next few days.

The county to our west has already leveled out; they're getting a recovery for every new case at this point. To our north, hospitalizations have also leveled out, on cue.

[TomSea]

Useful info but I don't think it closes the book for this matter, the information she provides makes the case that it probably is "zoonotic", from an animal but a good article still. I don't think she's trying to deceive anyone.

Bat virus? Bioweapon? What the science says about Covid-19 origins
Simone McCarthy

    Speculation about the emergence of the new coronavirus is spreading almost as quickly as the pandemic

    Scientists believe some pathways are more probable than others

...

“If someone had that virus in the lab, and say it escaped, it would not have been able to infect humans – the human Sars-CoV-2 has additional changes that allows it to infect humans,” he said, adding that the bat virus would have had to circulate, and evolve, for a number of years before mutating enough to be able to infect people.

Read more at: https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/bat-virus-bioweapon-what-the-science-says-about-covid-19-origins/ar-BB12sMhR

A good case but not a total sale. Science always has exceptions.

[bigheadfred]

@Smokin Joe

One of the things about cabinet work. You kinda/sorta well, no, actually, you have to install them. We (it is a two-man show) have work. Work piled on top of work. We just got two more kitchens and a couple of bathroom remakes coming on line. So I have work.

Customers want their product. But they don't want us in their house(s).

My boss doesn't know this. I made a few phone calls to businesses that do restoration work. People I haven't worked for/with since the last econ meltdown ten years ago. I know people that know people that he doesn't know. Fire, water, etc., damage. And, oddly enough, we have had three small jobs from those people. Rentals. Two bathrooms (water) and a kitchen that had fire damage.

I am going to ask this again. There are no federal mandates in Idaho. There is a stay at home request from our governor. And now I see signs posted on business doors that are restricting the number of customers allowed. They are the national chain stores and/or regional chain stores (gas, pee stop) There is a smile some where in that phrasing.

Back to the ? People here are auto self-distancing. They invented a word for it. Rural. Tell them they have to and is a moth to a flame. 

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

One of the things about cabinet work. You kinda/sorta well, no, actually, you have to install them. We (it is a two-man show) have work. Work piled on top of work. We just got two more kitchens and a couple of bathroom remakes coming on line. So I have work.

Customers want their product. But they don't want us in their house(s).

My boss doesn't know this. I made a few phone calls to businesses that do restoration work. People I haven't worked for/with since the last econ meltdown ten years ago. I know people that know people that he doesn't know. Fire, water, etc., damage. And, oddly enough, we have had three small jobs from those people. Rentals. Two bathrooms (water) and a kitchen that had fire damage.

I am going to ask this again. There are no federal mandates in Idaho. There is a stay at home request from our governor. And now I see signs posted on business doors that are restricting the number of customers allowed. They are the national chain stores and/or regional chain stores (gas, pee stop) There is a smile some where in that phrasing.

Back to the ? People here are auto self-distancing. They invented a word for it. Rural. Tell them they have to and is a moth to a flame. 

Well, Fred, rural folks are always self distancing, except when some one is in a bind and needs help. Then neighbors, ideally spaced just outside of rifle range, will flock to help in a pinch. If they don't, well, that's cause for no small amount of shame, and the reason should be compelling, but it isn't a requirement.
When you don't need to be forced to do the right thing, but feel morally or otherwise compelled to, you're the sort of folks I'd like for neighbors.
While no one in rural settings wants to catch the disease, they'd be positively mortified at the thought they might have had it and given it to someone else, so the distancing comes naturally.
Not so much in the packed urban hives where ignoring those next to you is almost a survival mechanism.

I'm glad y'all have work, even if you might have to figure something out on the installing end of it.

I wish I had your skills, right now, the Mrs has more of a hankering for changing her kitchen than I have budget.
I'll be out looking for used cabinets that can be cleaned up, given new doors and hardware and hung likely.

[txradioguy]

Bill Mitchell
@mitchellvii
 Â· 6h
Studies have shown less than 1% of USA COVID-19 deaths were healthy people. The rest involved at least 1 or more comorbidities. Add to this the "liberal" policy of coding everyone who dies that even "appears" to have COVID-19 or tests positive postmortem and you see the problem.

[Hoodat]

@musiclady @Hoodat

John's Hopkins admits in their disclaimer (below the map) that the numbers they report on recoveries are on the low side.  They hobgood ways of tracking confirmed positives and deaths, but no good way to track recoveries.  Their disclaimer: ".

Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number."

This has been my point all along.  They place all their efforts on counting bad news, and put very little effort on counting good news.  And this is only a US problem since the rest of the world shows much higher recovery numbers.

There's a saying in business - you get what you count.  If you count costs, you get costs.  If you count profits, you get profits.  And with this virus, if you put all your efforts into counting deaths, you get deaths.  If we put our efforts into counting recoveries, we would get a better picture of what we are facing.

[txradioguy]

This has been my point all along.  They place all their efforts on counting bad news, and put very little effort on counting good news.  And this is only a US problem since the rest of the world shows much higher recovery numbers.

There's a saying in business - you get what you count.  If you count costs, you get costs.  If you count profits, you get profits.  And with this virus, if you put all your efforts into counting deaths, you get deaths.  If we put our efforts into counting recoveries, we would get a better picture of what we are facing.

Good news and the fact more people have recovered than died worldwide doesn't fit with the narrative being pushed and would totally counter the effort to force people to stay in their houses scared and isolated and wouldn't help in the trashing of our economy.

It would cause people to question more than they already are right now why we're having to to what's being forced on us right now.

[Smokin Joe]

Bill Mitchell
@mitchellvii
 Â· 6h
Studies have shown less than 1% of USA COVID-19 deaths were healthy people. The rest involved at least 1 or more comorbidities. Add to this the "liberal" policy of coding everyone who dies that even "appears" to have COVID-19 or tests positive postmortem and you see the problem.

As I said in a previous post...

There are projections to meet! The crisis must take center stage!
Dead people vote Democrat, anyway, so the Dems have nothing to lose!

These is (or will be) money involved, and lots of it, and then there is every milliliter of political gasoline to wring out of this and throw on the fire in an election year.

All else has failed, they haven't been able to completely stop, to remove, nor to totally thwart the POTUS and what boils down to an American Agenda, despite all the chicanery, having one of the most extensive propaganda networks in history in their camp, performing acts of perfidy and breaking laws verging on treason to use our government agencies against the President in a fashion not seen before.
They still can't field a candidate worth a 30 second spot, even though they will try to make Cuomo into some sort of 'hero' over the COVID-19 event, when the very policies of the Democrats in New York (State and City) have only exacerbated the outbreak, and likely have cost a multitude of lives.

They know they are unfit to serve, are desperate for a standard bearer (ironic as that phrase may seem), and the only thing they have left is to tear down everything else to make themselves look more exalted.

I only pray the American People see through them and thoroughly reject their nonsense in November.

In the meantime, it is up to each and every American to do what they can to set this Nation on the road to recovery, and make it happen. It's time to show the world (and the Democrat Party) what we're made of.

[txradioguy]

I only pray the American People see through them and thoroughly reject their nonsense in November.

@Smokin Joe I hope you're right on this.  But what worried me is I see too many normally rational and sane people buying into the hype and panic.

Liberals have hit not he one thing that will cause people to do and act in ways they normally wouldn't.  And they are taking notes on what they've seen happen so far for the future.