Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2

[DB]

How about we look at the average number of deaths over the same time period (let's say December thru May) month by month for the previous five years and compare that to this year's numbers and see where we really are?

I think that's the only semi accurate approach. It would still take some data adjustments to make it valid. For example murder and accidents should be subtracted from all the data sets before making the comparison. Far fewer people are driving currently so the car accident death rate is likely far below normal for this period. Who knows what the murder rate is going to do with people stuck in their homes.

[Hoodat]

"One size fits all" is never a sound strategy.  The "current crisis" is not an exception.  People will simply refuse to comply if they think it's stupid.

What's good for The Peoples Republic of Maricopa and Pima is not good for Mohave, no matter how one chooses to slice it.  The Governor did this because the mayors of Phoenix and Tucson demanded it for everybody else, when nothing was stopping them from doing it to their own jurisdictions.  Classic leftist thinking:  Punish everybody.

You are correct.  And the only thing this strategy yields is a delay of the inevitable at a massive economic cost.  We can't quarantine ourselves forever.  At some point, we have to rejoin society and confront the risks and dangers associated with the end of isolation, whether that happens today or a year from now.

We should learn from history.  When a polio outbreak occurred in some town in North Carolina, they didn't shut commerce down in Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina.  Our leftist one-size-fits-all response has been completely asinine.

[Bigun]

I think that's the only semi accurate approach. It would still take some data adjustments to make it valid. For example murder and accidents should be subtracted from all the data sets before making the comparison. Far fewer people are driving currently so the car accident death rate is likely far below normal for this period. Who knows what the murder rate is going to do with people stuck in their homes.

OK, let's take out traffic deaths and murders.  I'll buy that.

[jmyrlefuller]

[Cyber Liberty]

How about we look at the average number of deaths over the same time period (let's say December thru May) month by month for the previous five years and compare that to this year's numbers and see where we really are?

Hospitals are already embarrassed by the overall lowering of the mortality rate of patients because elective surgeries are on hold.  Happens in Europe every time ther's a Doctors' strike.

[txradioguy]

Levin summed it up perfectly last night. It’s time to put the Technocrats (Fauci and Birx) back into their advisory roles and stop letting them make decisions that have an adverse effect and impact on the country.

[Smokin Joe]

Well, these guys ( IHME ) finally corrected the dead total for ND, Instead of being over 7X actual, it is in line with the ND State Dept of Health numbers.

[libertybele]

How about we look at the average number of deaths over the same time period (let's say December thru May) month by month for the previous five years and compare that to this year's numbers and see where we really are?

Well @Bigun there's a lot of logic to that, but we didn't social distance for the past 5 years.

[musiclady]

Well @Bigun there's a lot of logic to that, but we didn't social distance for the past 5 years.

The social distancing is keeping the numbers way down.

It's basic logic.  If the virus is transmitted from human to human, lessening the contact will slow the spread.

(I'm not sure why it's so important for some to say this isn't anything out of the ordinary.  It's a bit weird to work so hard at it, IMO).

[skeeter]

How about we look at the average number of deaths over the same time period (let's say December thru May) month by month for the previous five years and compare that to this year's numbers and see where we really are?

Apparently US pneumonia deaths normally experienced by this time of year have basically dropped off the statistical scale during this pandemic. It seems they're now all being lumped in with the Covid 19 statistics.

[Polly Ticks]

Apparently US pneumonia deaths normally experienced by this time of year have basically dropped off the statistical scale during this pandemic. It seems they're now all being lumped in with the Covid 19 statistics.

@txradioguy posted a thread about that yesterday:

CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just Assuming or It Only Contributed

[skeeter]

@txradioguy posted a thread about that yesterday:

CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just Assuming or It Only Contributed

Missed this thread, thanks. Three full months in and I still don't know what to make of this whole thing.

[Bigun]

Apparently US pneumonia deaths normally experienced by this time of year have basically dropped off the statistical scale during this pandemic. It seems they're now all being lumped in with the Covid 19 statistics.

Yeah!  Strange isn't it!

[Hoodat]

The social distancing is keeping the numbers way down.

It's basic logic.  If the virus is transmitted from human to human, lessening the contact will slow the spread.

(I'm not sure why it's so important for some to say this isn't anything out of the ordinary.  It's a bit weird to work so hard at it, IMO).

At some point, social distancing will be discarded and we return to normal, at which point the virus will be able to run its natural course of action.  So the only question that remains is how long are we willing to destroy our economy and wreak financial hardship upon the citizens of this nation for the sole purpose of postponing the inevitable?  The trade-off here is not worth it.  Not even close.

[Hoodat]

@txradioguy posted a thread about that yesterday:

CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just Assuming or It Only Contributed

The CDC must also be telling hospitals that if people recover, keep it a secret.

[Bigun]

The CDC must also be telling hospitals that if people recover, keep it a secret.

Nah!  It's just that the requirements for being called "recovered" are so stringent!  Think an 80-year-old man must be able to run the 440-yard dash in under 2 minutes and then drop and do 25 full push-ups. /s

[DB]

At some point, social distancing will be discarded and we return to normal, at which point the virus will be able to run its natural course of action.  So the only question that remains is how long are we willing to destroy our economy and wreak financial hardship upon the citizens of this nation for the sole purpose of postponing the inevitable?  The trade-off here is not worth it.  Not even close.

The "social distancing" rules should be regulated based on the local hospital utilization. If the local hospital has spare capacity the local social distancing rules should be relaxed. If the local hospital is nearing or at triage levels then local social distancing needs to be increased. The whole point of this exercise is/should be to keep hospitals from having to go into triage mode. It is a given that most of the population will get this over time short of a vaccine coming online. Once a hospital goes into triage mode the death rate for that hospital for all causes goes up rapidly because those who need care can't all get it. It is also no small thing to put people into a triage situation of having to decide who gets care and who doesn't. They have to live with that the rest of their lives.

That is the point and why how rapidly people get this virus matters.

If hospitals are far below capacity I'll agree that heavy lock down rules are incredibly stupid only causing unnecessary harm.

[mountaineer]

Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID–19)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

" ... When a death is due to COVID–19, it is likely the UCOD and thus,  it  should  be  reported  on  the  lowest  line  used  in  Part  I  of  the  death  certificate.  Ideally,  testing  for  COVID–19  should  be conducted, but it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate  without  this  confirmation  if  the  circumstances  are  compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.  ...[/quote]

[TomSea]

Say they died of other ailments but we are still seeing a rise in the death rate at least, per this article in NYC.

On a normal day, 145 people die in New York City. Last week, coronavirus alone killed over 200 per day
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/in-a-normal-day-145-people-die-in-new-york-city-last-week-coronavirus-alone-killed-217-in-nyc-a-day

[TomSea]

Coronavirus patients are being flipped onto their stomachs in the ICU — here’s why
By Emerald Bensadoun Global News
Posted April 7, 2020 6:02 pm   Updated April 8, 2020 11:07 am

Some intensive care unit doctors are championing a breathing technique to help increase oxygen flow for those infected with the new coronavirus that involves putting the patient on their belly.

The new coronavirus causes a respiratory infection that can make it difficult for people who have COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, to breathe. This technique, which is a form of prone positioning, is aimed at helping people with symptoms increase the airflow to their lungs.

It was made popular by Dr. Sarfaraz Munshi at Queen’s Hospital in England, who posted a video of the technique on YouTube.

...


Read more at: https://globalnews.ca/news/6788251/breathing-technique-coronavirus/

 

[Cyber Liberty]

Reminds me of an old Steven Wright bit:  My Uncle is taking Lamaze classes.  He's not having a baby or anything, he just forgot how to breathe.

[Smokin Joe]

Maybe the concept of "postural drainage" will make a comeback--using gravity to help clear the lungs.
The idea being to get the phlegm out. (Hoodathunkit?)
I saw it reading medical books from before antibiotics.

[Hoodat]

04-08-2020 | 20:54 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	3.139 ↑	4.535 ↓
United States	1.529 ↓	20.110 ↑
China	23.186 ↑	1.059 -

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 18,434
US Recovery Rate after 14 days - 40.2 %  ↓

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Recovery rate = Total recoveries today / Total cases 14 days ago.  Reported 14-day recovery rate for the rest of the world (excluding US and China) is 72%.

[Gefn]

Stealing this. Thank you!

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Stealing this. Thank you!

You're not the first.  In fact you can still see the out line of President Trump's picture where the WHO logo was slapped over.