Models don't work with situations that are utterly unique...as is this one. Fairly certain we don't have a past Presidential election event with a market crash caused by a Chinese virus...or any virus...leading into a presidential election. The Spanish flu was in an off year, for example...so that's out. Essentially, there is nothing to model this upon.
Actually, there is. Step back from the virus. It is a trigger, but not the real threat.
It's 2008 all over again. The market is crashing, housing sales and new starts to follow if this is sustained, and small businesses will crater taking a large chunk of the 49.2% of the private sector jobs with them. Only difference this time is that oil won't be going up, and the oil industry won't be pulling America's bacon out of the fire with a boom.
Which means a sustained "recession", and the Democrats are already shoving bailout bills across the Congress knowing that if POTUS doesn't sign they can use that against him, and if he does, the debt goes up, provided someone will even buy treasuries. Considering the Chinese have been big in buying that, don't expect it to keep up.
Which leaves reserve currency status teetering, and if we lose that, while 23.3 trillion dollars in debt, our money will rival Zimbabwe money, and someone else's money (China's?) will assume the status of reserve currency.
In this sense we're breaking new ground, with uncertainty the greatest it has been in ages, all over a disease that has yet to rival many more common causes of death in the US. America needs to get a handle on the panic, and not let the MSM and the bureaucrats feed it. This is the Deep State's
Hail Mary play. It's 4th and long and they're throwing the bomb.
The only way they will oust Trump is to make things so bad that being owned by the government seems like a good option. (Think store shelves are empty now, just wait until we're on the Soviet model.) But people don't think that far ahead, only to the next full belly, and if they're hungry, they will vote for whoever promises lunch.
That's how Obama got elected, with the media convincing everyone how bad they'd had it for the past 8 years, even though the panic in the markets in 2008 was launched by none other than Chuck Schumer, and that SOB smiled when he did it.
