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Calm Down, Breathe Through Your Nose - Covid19 NO BIG DEAL
ChemEngrMBA:
--- Quote from: jafo2010 on March 12, 2020, 06:30:34 pm ---This post has true information, but it is also misleading.
First off, it is reported that for those over 60 with a health condition, the mortality rate is 49%.
And most important, suppose the virus goes away with warm weather like the cold virus. I can assure you, it will be back in the fall.
--- End quote ---
We can trust your every word, Dr. Epidemiologist.
--- Quote ---When the population was around 3.75 billion, around 1972 or so, I had a bio professor tell me the planet is over populated, and that mother nature will unleash something to bring the population under control. When HIV/AIDS came along, I thought that was what would do it. It didn't.
--- End quote ---
Leftists always whine that there are "too many people". And exactly WHO is this "mother nature" that *she* unleashes diseases to *correct* the *overpopulation*? Pseudoscience prattled by someone who genuflects to Charles Darwin's hundred fifty year old tautology. "A>B>C>D" isn't science, it's nonsense. So is everything your "bio" professor told you.
Smokin Joe:
Some perspective:
More info at the links.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0309-covid-19-update.html
Transcript - CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19 Wednesday, March 10, 2020
--- Quote ---Reports out of China that looked at more than 70,000 COVID-19 patients found that about 80% of illness had — was mild and people recovered. 15 to 20% developed serious illness. Let’s talk about who those people are. So far it seems like it’s not children. Of the 70,000 cases, only about 2% were in people younger than 19. This seems to be a disease that affects adults. And most seriously older adults. Starting at age 60, there is an increasing risk of disease and the risk increases with age. The highest risk of serious illness and death is in people older than 80 years. People with serious underlying health conditions also are more likely to develop serious outcomes including death. The people who are at greatest risk are those older and who also have serious long-term health conditions like diabetes, heart disease, or lung disease.
--- End quote ---
Old age, sepsis tied to poor COVID-19 outcomes, death
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/old-age-sepsis-tied-poor-covid-19-outcomes-death
--- Quote ---This is the first and largest study of the risk factors linked to severe COVID-19 infection and death in hospitalized adults who either died or were released from the hospital, the authors said. Of 191 patients, 137 were released, and 54 (28%) died in the hospital.
Co-existing conditions portend poor prognosis
The researchers compared clinical records, treatment data, laboratory results, and demographic data of survivors versus nonsurvivors. They evaluated the clinical course of symptoms, viral shedding, and changes in laboratory findings and used mathematical models.
On average, patients were middle-aged (median, 56 years), and 62% were men. The median time from illness onset to hospital release was 22 days, and the average time from onset to death was 18.5 days. Patients who died were, on average, 69 years old, versus 52 years in survivors.
Ninety-one (48%) patients had a coexisting condition, including high blood pressure (58 [30%]), diabetes (36 [19%]), and coronary heart disease (15 [8%]). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death linked to advancing age (odds ratio, 1:10; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.17; per-year increase, P = 0.0043). Half of the patients developed sepsis.
Coronary heart disease has also been linked to cardiac events and poor outcomes in patients with flu and other respiratory viral infections. "In this study, increased high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I during hospitalisation [indicating heart damage] was found in more than half of those who died," the authors wrote.
Complications such as respiratory failure (98%, 53/54 nonsurvivors vs 36%, 50/137 survivors), sepsis (100%, 54/54 vs 42%, 58/137), and secondary infections (50%, 27/54 vs 1%, 1/137) were also higher in those who died than in survivors.
The median length of fever was about 12 days in survivors, similar to that of nonsurvivors, and 45% of survivors still had a cough at hospital release. In survivors, shortness of breath ended after about 13 days.
--- End quote ---
Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/
--- Quote ---Old and young
The vast majority of cases in China — 87% — were in people ages 30 to 79, the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb. 11. That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle, such as being in frequent contact with other people. Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others, at school and work and on public transit, yet they don’t seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates: Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger. The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78% of the cases reported as of Feb. 20 were in people ages 30 to 69.
The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.
--- End quote ---
That bar graph has been posted elsewhere, so I won't.
The bottom line is that Age alone is not the factor, nearly so much as the underlying and often pre existing conditions which make a person more susceptible to any disease. However, while those conditions May increase mortality in any given age group, No recorded age group is suffering a 49% mortality, even with those complications.
The_Reader_David:
I will repeat and expand on my comment from another thread:
Yes, Covid-19 is like the flu. The open question is which flu is it more like: 2009 or 1968 (the rosiest estimates from actual medical sources I have found suggest they are the appropriate analogies) or 1918? The 1918 flu killed an estimated 50 million out of a world population of 1.8 billion, that's 2.8%, not of those with identified cases, not of those infected, 2.8% of everyone alive at the time. Yes, modern ICUs could have saved many of the 1918 victims, but we don't have enough ICU beds to deal with this if the peak infection numbers are too concentrated. We have about 45,000 ICU beds. If even 1% of the population over 60 were to need them that would come to more than 700,000 people.
On the other hand, your "no big deal" view has some merit, if you happen to be under the age of 10 (no fatalities), or even under the age of 20 (0.2% mortality among those identified as infected for ages 10-19). Most of us on this board are not.
ChemEngrMBA:
--- Quote from: The_Reader_David on March 13, 2020, 01:26:45 am ---
On the other hand, your "no big deal" view has some merit, if you happen to be under the age of 10 (no fatalities), or even under the age of 20 (0.2% mortality among those identified as infected for ages 10-19). Most of us on this board are not.
--- End quote ---
Thirty-eight dead to date in America. Panic to your heart's content. Fake News is your pied piper.
The 1918 Flu Pandemic killed 550,000 Americans on a far smaller population base. The same proportion of fatalities today would result in almost 2,000,000 fatalities. So 38 is truly Fake News and its followers Grave Reason For Panic and Ongoing Insane Rage.
berdie:
--- Quote from: DeerSlayer on March 13, 2020, 01:38:34 am ---Thirty-eight dead to date in America. Panic to your heart's content. Fake News is your pied piper.
The 1918 Flu Pandemic killed 550,000 Americans on a far smaller population base. The same proportion of fatalities today would result in almost 2,000,000 fatalities. So 38 is truly Fake News and its followers Grave Reason For Panic and Ongoing Insane Rage.
--- End quote ---
Believe me...I'm not panicked. But it this can be contained it's not a bad thing. If people could have been contained in 1918 it might have helped? Do you have a better answer?
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