I was looking at the numbers of deaths in the IHME model for the US and Sweden yesterday. At that time, the last day of actual reported deaths was the 27th, with other dates past that as projected.
As of April 27, deaths per 100,000 population:
US: 0.17
Sweden: 0.23
The predicted total deaths per 100,000 population (if you believe the model, but what else have we got to go on?):
US: 0.22
Sweden: 1.69
It would be interesting to see how much lower the US numbers would be without the greater NYC numbers being factored in.