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Online mystery-ak

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Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« on: March 05, 2020, 10:52:43 pm »
Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
By Petr Svab
March 5, 2020 Updated: March 5, 2020


Republicans are on a path to flip six congressional seats in California in November based on the primary results. Four additional seats are enough to make GOP candidates competitive. Democrats, on the other hand, don’t seem to have an easy path open to even one seat currently held by a Republican.

California as a whole leans left, with Democrats holding 45 of the 53 congressional districts (two are vacant). The March 3 primary results, however, suggest the GOP may heal its losses from the 2018 midterms, where Democrats flipped seven seats.

The state holds “jungle primaries,” which means both Democrats and Republicans show up on the same ballot, and the two candidates with the most votes face each other in the general election.

Voters who didn’t get their primary pick could still be generally expected to go for the winning candidate of their party. Thus, by adding up the votes for all Democrats and all Republicans on the ballot, one can get a rough idea how many voters may show up for the candidate of each party in the general election.

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https://www.theepochtimes.com/republicans-poised-to-flip-6-california-districts-primary-results-indicate_3261593.html
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2020, 10:53:43 pm »
California GOP candidates ahead in six of seven districts lost to Democrats in 2018
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/california-gop-candidates-ahead-in-six-of-seven-districts-lost-to-democrats-in-2018
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2020, 11:02:43 pm »
That would be great, for my district was GOP for many years. Sadly incombent Dana Rohrabacher ran a stupid campaign in 2018 and lost.

This time the GOP vote in the jungle primary was split. Hopefully we can support the leading vote getter, an established county supervisor, with party support.

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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2020, 11:06:37 pm »
A 6 seat flip means a 12 seat loss in their majority.
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Offline skeeter

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2020, 11:16:00 pm »
Quote from: Free Vulcan on March 05, 2020, 11:06:37 pm
A 6 seat flip means a 12 seat loss in their majority.

Will that be enough to eliminate their current supermajority?
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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2020, 11:22:18 pm »
Quote from: skeeter on March 05, 2020, 11:16:00 pm
Will that be enough to eliminate their current supermajority?

No but its a good start.
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2020, 12:04:48 am »
That's assuming the Dems don't pull the ballot harvesting stunt again.
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2020, 12:11:31 am »
Quote from: jmyrlefuller on March 06, 2020, 12:04:48 am
That's assuming the Dems don't pull the ballot harvesting stunt again.

You know they will...that's the only way they can win those seats
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Offline PeteS in CA

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2020, 12:49:44 am »
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The 10th district, spanning northern San Joaquin Valley east of San Jose, flipped blue in 2018, but seems ready to swing back. ...

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The 21st district, just south of the 10th, is a similar story. Democrat T.J. Cox unseated incumbent Republican David Valadao in 2018.

Central Valley, farming area, probably hit hard by the court-ordered "drought" that Trump is working to alleviate.


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A bit further south lies the 25th district, offering a crowded primary of six Democrats, six Republicans, and one independent competing for the seat emptied by Katie Hill ...

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The 39th district covers about a dozen neighborhoods east of Los Angeles. After the 2018 retirement of Republican Rep. Ed Royce, Democrat Gil Cisneros narrowly won it in the midterm race against Republican Young Kim.


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The 45th district in Orange County is also among those flipped blue in 2018. ...

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The 48th district, also in Orange County, stretches along the coast south of Los Angeles. Democrat Harley Rouda won it in 2018, unseating veteran GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher.

Orange County traditionally is not as loony-lib as Mad Maxine's or Schifftyroo's  or Ted Lieu's districts.


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In the 7th, 9th, 24th, and 49th districts, Democrats received majorities, but narrow ones, spanning from 53.5 percent in the 9th to 52.1 in the 7th.

The 7th is southern Sacramento County, more rural than Sacto. The 9th is a bit south, lots of rural area and possibly impacted by the court-ordered "drought". The 24th is Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, on the coast and north of the Land of LA. The 49th is southern Orange and northern San Diego Counties.

FWIW, Devin Nunes received ~59% of all primary votes in his district, https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_22nd_Congressional_District_election,_2020_(March_3_top-two_primary) .
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2020, 01:58:53 am »
Quote from: PeteS in CA on March 06, 2020, 12:49:44 am

snip

Orange County traditionally is not as loony-lib as Mad Maxine's or Schifftyroo's  or Ted Lieu's districts.

snip

Historically the OC is known as one of the most conservative counties, in this faire lande.

Admittedly as CA  has moved leftward, so has OC.

I feel many are confidant of winning back some of the lost seats.
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Republicans Poised to Flip 6 California Districts, Primary Results Indicate
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2020, 05:55:46 am »
Stopped into a church
I passed along the way
Well, I got down on my knees (got down on my knees)
And I pretend to pray (I pretend to pray)
You know the preacher like the cold (preacher like the cold)
He knows I'm gonna stay (knows I'm gonna stay)
California dreamin' (California dreamin')
On such a winter's day

The GOP controls only 6 out of 53 CA congressional seats.  When you're at rock bottom there is but one direction to go. 
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