Why We Shouldn’t Believe Polling About Trump

[mystery-ak]

Why We Shouldn’t Believe Polling About Trump
Loyd Pettegrew

Posted: Jan 24, 2020 12:01 AM

Many conservatives are concerned about polling results regarding conservative issues, especially about President Trump. For example, the latest CNN poll found that 51% of voters believe the president should be impeached. How much credence should conservatives give these polls?

Mark Twain is credited with introducing into the American vernacular the phrase, “Lies, damned lies and statistics.” One of the pervasive damned lies people take for granted is the results of political polls, especially in the Trump era. Most polls show him behind several of the myriad candidates vying to represent Democrats in the 2020 election. But the American Association for Public Opinion Research confirms that “national polls in 2016 tended to under-estimate Trump’s support significantly more than Clinton’s.”

We are inundated with the latest polling on President Trump’s approval rating and how people are likely to vote in the 2020 election. Both bode poorly for the president, but he doesn’t believe them and neither should we. As an academic, I ran a research center that conducted local, state-wide and national public opinion polls and took a year’s leave of absence from my university to work for Lou Harris, founder of the Harris Poll.

more
https://townhall.com/columnists/loydpettegrew/2020/01/24/why-we-shouldnt-believe-polling-about-trump-n2559990

[PeteS in CA]

Simple answer: 2016 polling.

Until 2016, the MSM could be relied on to over-sample Ds in their polling, with predictable results (and intent), and then get more realistic along about September or October. That ended in 2016, and it's Trump's fault.  

[EdinVA]

I am more inclined to suggest that polls never really worked, they just got lucky.
How can you predict the actions of 300 million people by asking 100 or even 1000.'
There are 300 million different lifestyles, needs, wants, dreams and beliefs.
When we are talking about races like Reagan vs Carter the the polls showed Reagan trailing by 12 points but went on to win 489 electoral votes.
For over a year, the prediction was Trump would lose BIGLY..... right... never listen to polls..

[Absalom]

A note of reality.
In 2016 Hilarity, arguably one of the most inept candidates since Millard Fillmore,
received 65.8 million (48.2%) while Trumpet received 62.8 million (46.1%)!
Anyone believing Trump is a slam dunk in 2020 needs serious medical attention.

[libertybele]

A note of reality.
In 2016 Hilarity, arguably one of the most inept candidates since Millard Fillmore,
received 65.8 million (48.2%) while Trumpet received 62.8 million (46.1%)!
Anyone believing Trump is a slam dunk in 2020 needs serious medical attention.

Another note of reality .... the DEMS have absolutely no one who is running on anything of substance.

As for polls, they have proven to be absolutely worthless the past several election cycles.

[Absalom]

Another note of reality .... the DEMS have absolutely no one who is running on anything of substance.
As for polls, they have proven to be absolutely worthless the past several election cycles.

---------------------------------
Anyone, regardless of party, who spends their life immersed in politics, per se lacks substance;
politics being the obsession of frauds, hustlers and other lowlifes, as history affirms loud and clear.
Sure, polls are little more than a vehicle for propaganda, so Trump might win.
Then again Occasional Cortez might run and win. Who knows???
What should be obvious to anyone w/even a solitary brain cell is that the likes of
Jefferson, Madison and Monroe no longer exist in our nation.

[truth_seeker]

A note of reality.
In 2016 Hilarity, arguably one of the most inept candidates since Millard Fillmore,
received 65.8 million (48.2%) while Trumpet received 62.8 million (46.1%)!
Anyone believing Trump is a slam dunk in 2020 needs serious medical attention.

Aristotle once remarked: 'The Presidential election in the USA is still determined by the Electoral College tally.'

(The article did NOT say slam dunk.)

@Absalom once again I ask, who did you support in 2016, and the same question for 2020?

[Absalom]

Aristotle once remarked: 'The Presidential election in the USA is still determined by the Electoral College tally.'
(The article did NOT say slam dunk.)
@Absalom once again I ask, who did you support in 2016, and the same question for 2020?

-----------------------------
Slam Dunk was in a headline.
In 2016, I voted for Trump.
In 2020, I may well not vote.
So we'll see.

[Cyber Liberty]

-----------------------------
Slam Dunk was in a headline.
In 2016, I voted for Trump.
In 2020, I may well not vote.
So we'll see.

Wanna know what we call people who use the words "Slam dunk?"    "Former Candidates."  "Losers."

[EdinVA]

-----------------------------
Slam Dunk was in a headline.
In 2016, I voted for Trump.
In 2020, I may well not vote.
So we'll see.

Trump most likely will win depending on how many folks go vote, otherwise we will be socialists in 4 years and it will no longer matter.

[roamer_1]

Trump most likely will win depending on how many folks go vote, otherwise we will be socialists in 4 years and it will no longer matter.

I used to listen to that line of crap 15 years ago...

[Absalom]

My, my some are truly exercised over this!
I lifted the expression from the headline of the article
"Trump's re-election looks more like a long shot than a
slam dunk." by Lara Brown which was posted by the
site moderator and owner.
Hope everyone feels better now!!!

[EdinVA]

I used to listen to that line of crap 15 years ago...

Well the folks in Virginia thought it was a line of crap last November and now they are having to fight to get their constitutional rights back.... so keep on, keeping on...

[roamer_1]

Well the folks in Virginia thought it was a line of crap last November and now they are having to fight to get their constitutional rights back.... so keep on, keeping on...

Yeah. I am curious as to what will happen next - If Virginians are worth their salt or not...

Still the same, pointing and screaming 'eeeeevil democrats' as a campaign leaves Republican voters relieved at the win, but leaves Republican lawmakers a free pass - As has been exhibited my whole life long. The great teacher is pain, and Republican politicians have been pain free so long that they don't even consider it to be any more than a myth.

[Cyber Liberty]

So, let's review:

Before the demonstration, the press was full of reports about the violence that's coming.  During the demonstration we had "Stay tuned!  There's going to be violence any second!"  In the aftermath, the press is telling us because there was no violence, the demonstrators weren't serious about their displeasure.

And who says violence isn't the only thing they will listen to?  Sounds to me like it literally is.

[Sighlass]

So, let's review:

Before the demonstration, the press was full of reports about the violence that's coming.  During the demonstration we had "Stay tuned!  There's going to be violence any second!"  In the aftermath, the press is telling us because there was no violence, the demonstrators weren't serious about their displeasure.

And who says violence isn't the only thing they will listen to?  Sounds to me like it literally is.

What I said a few days ago.... The last time the left listened to protests was the Florida elections (Sore Loserman).... when it surprised them conservatives actually got off their kiefers to voice their displeasure. Even then, the managed to recount the votes how many times (4-5X) with closer tallies each time.

[Jazzhead]

Conservatives are socially ostracized in many parts of the country,  and in the workplace must be very careful about expressing political views.   In that regard, the liberal kulturekampf has been very successful.

But, thank the stars, we still have a secret ballot,  and lying to a pollster just seems to me to comprise a patriotic act.