Tehran knows that it cannot afford to appear weak. Given the crippling impact of US sanctions on Iran’s economy, Tehran’s principle strategy in recent months — masterminded by Soleimani himself — has been to use attacks against regional targets to compel Trump to retreat from his maximum pressure strategy; knowing the president’s desire to avoid overseas military commitments. Iran’s failure to respond to this devastating assassination in a manner that is comparably deleterious to US regional interests will be tantamount to acknowledging that it is a paper tiger.
The Tehran regime is like a bag of angry cats. They are capable of lashing out painfully, yet this operation could goad them into a succession of rash, foolish and self-defeating actions that will fundamentally undermine the regime itself. Soleimani was widely despised by Iranians for squandering the nation’s wealth on overseas terrorism. There will be little sympathy among citizens if the regime plunges the region into a futile and costly war over his death.
By killing Soleimani, the US has decapitated the principal agent of Tehran’s strategy for regional hegemony, bringing an end to a long phase of Tehran-branded militancy dominated by the Quds Force commander personally. No other global terrorist boasts Soleimani’s longevity in overseeing thousands of paramilitary and terrorist attacks over at least four decades. He lived by the sword and died a fitting death. His passing should not be mourned.
We are in uncharted territory. How Tehran’s regime chooses to respond in the coming days — either lashing out or withdrawing to lick its wounds — will have reverberations in the region for years to come.
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