Donald Trump’s Diminishing ReturnsThe president missed his best chance to effect change. Now, a stalemate looks likely no matter who wins.
by David Thornton
January 2nd, 2020As the new year cranks up, bringing with it the election season, like many others I’ve been pondering the upcoming campaign and the next four years. At this point, it is impossible to predict how the election will go. Polling is very close and it is very possible that either side could win. However, if Donald Trump manages to eke out another victory, it seems likely that he will fall victim to the law of diminishing returns, a maxim which holds that, at some point, that the amount of benefit received will become less than the energy or effort invested.
This law seems likely to apply to Mr. Trump because no one is seriously predicting an electoral landslide for the incumbent. In fact, the focus seems to be on determining how much the president can lose the popular vote by and still manage an Electoral College squeaker. An analysis by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report last year found that Trump could increase his popular vote loss margin to 5 million votes (compared with 2.9 million in 2016) and still win the White House IF he wins votes in the right places.
Imagine, however, what such a win might look like. Even though Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, his coattails were nonexistent as Republicans lost two seats in the Senate and six in the House. It is very possible that another popular vote loss/Electoral College victory could further erode the Republican position in Congress, even as the GOP maintains control of the White House.
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https://theresurgent.com/2020/01/02/donald-trumps-diminishing-returns/
