Encouraging Disenchantment: Why is Blue Origin so Slow?
https://www.illdefined.space/encouraging-disenchantment-why-is-blue-origin-so-slow/Someone asked me last week why Blue Origin is moving so slowly in its development of New Glenn. My latest Astralytical article, “Blue Moon’s 2025 Moon Landing: Nope” had instigated the question. I noted in that article that a reason why Blue Origin won’t be able to land its lander on the moon in 2025 is because its motto, “Gradatim Ferociter,” or, step by step, ferociously, shapes its culture. That cultural element was part of my answer to the question.
I provided a few other reasons for Blue Origin’s plodding, such as Bob Smith, the person Jeff Bezos chose to run his company for a while, and the company’s challenges with the engine that will power New Glenn’s first stage, the BE-4. None of these are reasons to believe that the company can’t deliver on New Glenn's promise. It’s just that Blue Origin hasn’t delivered yet and probably won’t deliver as advertised.
The Hope for Something Better
It’s incredibly disappointing that Blue Origin has yet to launch New Glenn. The company has been working on the launch vehicle for about eight years, pushing its projected launch date back a few times. The most recent launch date Blue Origin has offered is sometime in 2024. Until its launch, New Glenn remains in the company of other ghost rockets, despite Blue Origin’s demonstration of its ability to roll out and prop up a painted tube (with no engines).
Still…the promotions highlighting New Glenn’s capabilities are compelling.
Blue Origin markets New Glenn as a capable rocket that can lift 45 metric tons to low Earth orbit (LEO) and 13 to geosynchronous transfer orbit. The rocket’s LEO upmass is almost double ULA’s Delta IV Heavy’s (28.4 metric tons) but less than the Falcon Heavy’s upmass of nearly 64. Still, New Glenn’s fairing can hold more unwieldy payloads than any current operational rockets. The company notes that New Glenn’s first stage will be reusable, making Blue Origin one of the few potential SpaceX competitors that will (eventually) field a reusable rocket.
This was the other exciting aspect of New Glenn–it should allow Blue Origin to compete against SpaceX and its Falcon 9. No other company–ULA, Arianespace, Samara, etc.- has been as focused on fielding a rocket that would give the Falcon 9 a run for its money. On the other hand, New Glenn might–if Blue Origin can successfully launch the thing. That brings us back to the question (and my guesses) as to why Blue Origin seems to be dithering with its New Glenn development efforts.
I mentioned culture as part of the answer previously; however, it’s not just that Blue Origin’s motto shapes its culture to be slow. It’s also an advertisement for government business.
Mistaking Slow For Meticulousness
Over four years ago, I wrote “Blue Origin: Old Space in New Space Clothing.” In it, I observed that Blue Origin’s business focus is defined by its motto:
…Blue Origin hews to a different ethos, captured in its motto “Gradatim Ferociter” (step by step ferociously). First, let’s just acknowledge that this is the type of mission statement risk-averse organizations and managers love. That motto is pure, sweet Kool-Aid designed for direct-injection into the U.S. government’s mission assurance jugular. It assures the risk-averse of something they are already used to--trading time for mission accomplishment (hoping that the time will be spent to increase the mission’s chances).
The company’s seeming deliberateness is also an advertisement that government customers, such as NASA and the Department of Defense, seek out. Most of the time, these customers aren’t looking for a fast way to launch their spacecraft, merely one that won’t blow up. They have expensive satellites that took years to build, so it’s a good look (and a posterior covering) for them to choose a company that appears to equal their pacing–even if it has never launched a rocket.
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