Independent voters will make Donald Trump a one-term president

[mystery-ak]

Independent voters will make Donald Trump a one-term president
By Kevin Walling, opinion contributor — 12/22/19 10:30 AM EST

Since the impeachment process began in earnest with Speaker Pelosi’s Sept. 24 inquiry announcement, polls have repeatedly shown that the American electorate is divided when it comes to removing the 45th President of the United States.

The latest Fox News Poll indicates that some 50 percent of respondents believe the president should be impeached and removed from office, while 41 percent believe he should remain in office. This poll, which was conducted between December 8 and 11 — before the two formal Articles of Impeachment were announced by House Democratic Leadership, registered nearly the same public sentiment as a month before.

The same Fox News poll indicates that registered independents are split evenly on the question of impeachment at 45 percent in favor and 45 percent opposed. The 45 percent of registered independents supporting impeachment is up 6 points since the same poll was conducted by Fox News in early October.

more
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/475607-independent-voters-will-make-donald-trump-a-one-term-president

[TomSea]

To me, in 2011, the polls made it seem like Obama would be a one term president but he won reelection fairly handily.

[EdinVA]

The poll..... 1000 folks out of 350 million.... yea, I am going to believe that..

Interviews were conducted December 8-11, 2019 among a random national sample of 1,000 registered voters (RV). Landline (221) and cellphone (779) telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.
https://www.scribd.com/document/440012308/Fox-December-8-11-2019-National-Topline-December-15-Release#from_embed

[Victoria33]

@mystery-ak
@TomSea

As you know, part of my work with the Texas Republican State Party was to examine voting practices which would help me determine how an election might turn out.

Historically, the country has been about 50% Democrat, and 50% Republican.
It is the Independent voters who have determined who is President.  It is hard to determine for whom Independents will vote as they vote by emotions at the time.  Checked now for whom they will vote, may change by the time of the actual election.  It is important to have polls closer to the election to determine the mind set of Independents at that time.

[libertybele]

@mystery-ak
@TomSea

As you know, part of my work with the Texas Republican State Party was to examine voting practices which would help me determine how an election might turn out.

Historically, the country has been about 50% Democrat, and 50% Republican.
It is the Independent voters who have determined who is President.  It is hard to determine for whom Independents will vote as they vote by emotions at the time.  Checked now for whom they will vote, may change by the time of the actual election.  It is important to have polls closer to the election to determine the mind set of Independents at that time.

Looking at polls this far out is futile.  A lot can happen almost a year from now. Polls have proven to be very inaccurate the past several election cycles.

[PeteS in CA]

Presidential election polls used to follow a predictable pattern: game the sample to make the R look like a sure loser in early polls; starting around September, increase the accuracy of the sample so the results are increasingly realistic (for CYA purposes). That pattern was shattered, intentionally because Orange Man Bad, in 2016. Consequently, polls should be taken with an adult-sized block of salt ... or simply ignored. I take the latter route, mostly, since MSM TDS has mushroomed.