The Democratic Primary May As Well Only Have These Three Candidates
by David ThorntonWe are still six months away from the first primary elections and already the Democratic field has effectively winnowed itself down to only three likely candidates. Despite – or perhaps because of – a historically large field of more than 20 candidates, the majority have failed to gain traction and are unlikely to do so in the future. The odds are overwhelming at this point that the eventual Democratic nominee will be either Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows clearly that Biden is the frontrunner and is followed by Warren and Sanders whose support combined is approximately equal to Biden. No other candidate, including Kamala Harris, is polling above 10 percent.
In particular, Kamala Harris’ failure to launch is surprising to many observers on both sides. Harris seems to be 2020’s version of Jeb Bush in 2016: A candidate widely expected to receive a coronation by the party elites but who never caught on with voters.
Biden, on the other hand, has defied the pundit predictions that “his first day on the campaign trail will be his best.†Looking back six months ago on the RCP average, Biden was at 28.3 back in February. His position as I write this? 28.9 percent. There have been ups and downs over the spring and summer, including a surge after his campaign announcement in April and a decline after his lackluster performance in the first debate, but the former vice president’s support has proved remarkably resilient.
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https://theresurgent.com/2019/09/03/the-democratic-primary-may-as-well-only-have-these-three-candidates/