Does China Have a 650-Ship Navy?

[rangerrebew]

September 1, 2019

Does China Have a 650-Ship Navy?

Depends on how you do the math.
by David Axe


Math problems for the U.S. Navy?


The Chinese fleet is much bigger than most people think. And that should compel the United States to reconsider its Pacific maritime strategy, one expert argued.

The People's Liberation Army Navy by 2020 will possess between 313 and 342 warships, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimated.

By comparison, in mid-2018 the U.S. Navy possessed 285 warships.

But the PLAN accounts for only a fraction of China's maritime power, according to Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/does-china-have-650-ship-navy-77426

[Absalom]

It depends.
The answer is no, if you're counting Marble Warships!!!

[Elderberry]

USNI News  By: John Grady
May 15, 2019

https://news.usni.org/2019/05/15/former-navy-intel-officer-chinese-navy-very-competent-getting-better

Former Navy Intel Officer: Chinese Navy ‘Very Competent,’ Getting Better

Due to an editing error, a previous version of this post stated the incorrect size of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, according to James Fanell. The Chinese are on pace to reach 450 surface ships and 110 submarines by 2030, according to Fanell’s data. Those totals are not the current fleet size.

China’s rise as a naval power goes well beyond its growing number of ships and submarines but the People’s Liberation Army Navy growing capability to operate jointly with the Chinese air force and rocket corps, a maritime intelligence expert said Tuesday.

But when it comes down to numbers and tonnage, Fanell said China “is determined to be first” in naval power by 2049, the centennial of the Chinese Communist takeover of the mainland. Their goal is to achieve “sea dominance,” the ability to bully or intimidate any nation so that they can impose their will in a crisis, he said.

With its modern shipyards, skilled workers and low costs, China is capable of producing two nuclear attack submarines and one ballistic missile submarine annually. The yards producing surface combatants have the same production efficiency, Fanell said. Beijing’s naval building program for all combatants “may be greater than originally estimated.”

The People’s Liberation Army Navy is on pace to reach 450 surface ships and 110 submarines by 2030, Fanell said. The fleet is concentrated regionally to keep the United States and its allies at bay. As for the United States’ long-term fleet planning strategy, he doubts the Navy could reach its goal of having a 355-ship fleet, according to its latest 30-year shipbuilding plan. To meet current global naval commitments, Fanell said the U.S. would likely need an even larger fleet than what’s planned.

In conjunction with expedited shipbuilding, Beijing is investing in sophisticated weaponry to keep the U.S. Navy and its allies and partners at bay. Using anti-ship cruise missiles as an example, Fanell said, “they simply dominate in numbers, range [200 miles] and speed — all supersonic.”