THE DISASTROUS ECONOMICS OF TRYING TO POWER AN ELECTRICAL GRID WITH 100% INTERMITTENT RENEWABLES

[Hoodat]

Mostly algea, plankton and the like buried away from oxygen in the sediment.  From the "dinosaur age", it was just an ad campaign.

Except that algae, plankton, etc. already contain oxygen.

[bigheadfred]

Most of those dams are on intermittent runoff creeks. not enough constant flow to justify a hydro unit.

I know that. And that info is probably buried in that pdf somewhere. My point is that there is a large amount of hydro that could be generated without going through a ten year permitting process.

[Free Vulcan]

Someone is building a huge data server farm near me.  It will be powered by a system of solar panels, the plan is to take no power from a grid.  This place has about 350 days of sunshine per year.

Out there is probably a good bet. Here in Iowa we get about 2/3 that.

[Hoodat]

Someone is building a huge data server farm near me.  It will be powered by a system of solar panels, the plan is to take no power from a grid.  This place has about 350 days of sunshine per year.

So how will it get power at night?

[bigheadfred]

So how will it get power at night?

Only the Shadow knows.

[Cyber Liberty]

So how will it get power at night?

I am assuming storage is a good chunk of the construction price.     The idea is to keep it off-grid.

[Cyber Liberty]

I know that. And that info is probably buried in that pdf somewhere. My point is that there is a large amount of hydro that could be generated without going through a ten year permitting process.

I'd hate to write the Environmental Impact Statement for a project that would wipe out thousands of acres by creating a lake.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

So how will it get power at night?

[bigheadfred]

I'd hate to write the Environmental Impact Statement for a project that would wipe out thousands of acres by creating a lake.

No doubt. It takes ten years and millions of dollars of your own money.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I get your point on hydrocarbons, but I don't buy in to the 'oil came from dinosaurs' mantra.

Your belief could be correct, but there are plenty that say otherwise.

I entered the petroleum industry 46 years ago as a petroleum engineer and was told by some why bother as we would run out of oil in 10 years.

Since that time, we have greatly increased both production and reserves worldwide.  A limit as yet has not been found, which has greatly frustrated the naysayers.

Like the sun to keep warm and grow things, God gave us a gift of oil, gas and coal to provide for our energy needs.  Packaged up in these resources we mine are dynamos of potential we can transport and using low footprints of extraction.   Like a seed that grows from the earth into a plant so we could eat, these dynamos are perfect for our energy uses.

And we have just taken on the conventional resources in just a few places on this earth.  Very little artic or the oceans.  And most unconventionals are waiting.  As are the ocean hydrates, even methane floating around the atmosphere we could extract like the windpower and solar guys are doing.

Just how we do we know there is a limit on the amount of hydrocarbons?  It may not be a dinosaur thing but a self-generating mechanism within the earth.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Where did I say that?

The refrain 'using economically' is normally synonymous with the best economic usage.  I agree that one could be economic without it being the best economics.

[thackney]

The refrain 'using economically' is normally synonymous with the best economic usage.  I agree that one could be economic without it being the best economics.

I would say we use multiple sources of energy for power generation without subsidies, coal, Nat Gas, Petroleum Coke, hydro.  They are all economic.  They cannot all be best. 

And in a few places, I've had solar and/or wind for power because that was the most economic in the remote location with small power needs.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I would say we use multiple sources of energy for power generation without subsidies, coal, Nat Gas, Petroleum Coke, hydro.  They are all economic.  They cannot all be best. 

And in a few places, I've had solar and/or wind for power because that was the most economic in the remote location with small power needs.

Being an Economist for quite some time in industry, I typically would say what is 'Economic' is what would have the BEST economic criteria, if that is the sole criteria for deciding the worth of a project one wishes to pursue.  Lots of things may be 'economic' from robust economics to marginal economics.

Sometimes other than the best economics is the deciding factor to pursue a project(eg - get it online quicker or in today's world to provide a more restrictive environmental footprint, etc.). 

Why perform economics at all if one is not striving to achieve the most optimum economics?  Only if something else needs to be considered.

The project you are describing for solar and/or wind for power for remote locations seems to be the BEST economics, not for other reasons, but this may not be wrong.

[thackney]

Why perform economics at all if one is not striving to achieve the most optimum economics?  Only if something else needs to be considered.

I guess my viewpoint is simpler.  I look at it to make money, not lose money.  What other people have managed to do is interesting, but not my primary concern.  It may be my goal, but I need to be positive, not negative in the cash flow, at least on average.

Cheers!

[Cyber Liberty]

I guess my viewpoint is simpler.  I look at it to make money, not lose money.  What other people have managed to do is interesting, but not my primary concern.  It may be my goal, but I need to be positive, not negative in the cash flow, at least on average.

Cheers!

You mean we can't make it up in volume?   

[thackney]

You mean we can't make it up in volume?   

Were you the salesman at an old engineering/construction company where I worked?  The one that went out of business?

[Cyber Liberty]

Were you the salesman at an old engineering/construction company where I worked?  The one that went out of business?

No, I worked for a good company that got sucked up by a Dutch company in the M&A craze a couple years ago in the semiconductor industry.  It's how I got retired.  They decided to ship all the R&D to labs in China, a stupid move I'm convinced will bite them badly in the coming years.

(I'm glad I retired, BTW.  The view from my new Castle is awesome, something I could never have when I was tethered to the big city.  I thank God every day for my beautiful wife, who made it happen.)

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I guess my viewpoint is simpler.  I look at it to make money, not lose money.  What other people have managed to do is interesting, but not my primary concern.  It may be my goal, but I need to be positive, not negative in the cash flow, at least on average.

Cheers!

Making money is important, but making more money is even more important.

Guess I think as an investor not an engineer.

[thackney]

Making money is important, but making more money is even more important.

Guess I think as an investor not an engineer.

In Midstream, we often have to be first, to secure the contract.  Getting there with good enough is far more important than perfect and too late.

[Smokin Joe]

More like:

It has been stated here many times before but without government interference ^serious infusions of our money^, those renewables would disappear very quickly.

[Smokin Joe]

Your belief could be correct, but there are plenty that say otherwise.

I entered the petroleum industry 46 years ago as a petroleum engineer and was told by some why bother as we would run out of oil in 10 years.

Since that time, we have greatly increased both production and reserves worldwide.  A limit as yet has not been found, which has greatly frustrated the naysayers.

Like the sun to keep warm and grow things, God gave us a gift of oil, gas and coal to provide for our energy needs.  Packaged up in these resources we mine are dynamos of potential we can transport and using low footprints of extraction.   Like a seed that grows from the earth into a plant so we could eat, these dynamos are perfect for our energy uses.

And we have just taken on the conventional resources in just a few places on this earth.  Very little artic or the oceans.  And most unconventionals are waiting.  As are the ocean hydrates, even methane floating around the atmosphere we could extract like the windpower and solar guys are doing.

Just how we do we know there is a limit on the amount of hydrocarbons?  It may not be a dinosaur thing but a self-generating mechanism within the earth.

I have a book in my office from 1947 about 'When the oil runs out". I keep it as a reminder that for geologists, the next big play is often outside the box. I worked my first horizontal well in 1990, and my first Bakken horizontal in 2000. Still looking for the 'next big thing'.

[Smokin Joe]

Mostly algea, plankton and the like buried away from oxygen in the sediment.  From the "dinosaur age", it was just an ad campaign.

It is more about depth of burial and thermal maturity of the organic rich sediments than age, and most come from marine environments. Between 8500 and 11000 ft., as a rule for oil on the continent is the real 'goldilocks window' for thermal maturity in a basin, although gas (and oil) can be found deeper or shallower, depending on the local geology. In some places, the rock was buried deeper than that, the trap efficient enough to retain the hydrocarbons, and erosion and uplift brought the resource closer to the surface. SOmetimes migration upward along fractures and faults can do the same thing.

[Bigun]

More like:

Exactly my meaning @Smokin Joe.

[ChemEngrMBA]

I get your point on hydrocarbons, but I don't buy in to the 'oil came from dinosaurs' mantra.

I spoke to a geologist from Canada a few years ago.  He works in the oil industry up there.  I said I didn't believe that a bunch of ferns and trees failed to decompose, and were smashed into oil, all around the world, and pushed under sea and under thousands of feet of rock formations.  Where is this happening today!!! 

He agreed with me completely.

Incidentally, oil companies have leaks in their steel tanks all the time.  How is it that fossil fuel is so perfectly preserved, even under pressure!  And it doesn't all leak out like our gas tanks have a tendency to do?

[thackney]

sigh...

USING MICROFOSSILS
IN PETROLEUM EXPLORATION
https://ucmp.berkeley.edu/fosrec/ONeill.html