Trump can’t be both the president of growth and the president of debt
Daniel Horowitz · July 26, 2019
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With the unemployment rate below 4 percent for 16 consecutive months, one would expect economic growth to be soaring. Yet even as we experience the best job market since the late 1960s, this is the first time in modern history that we have not experienced a year of 3 percent GDP growth. What gives?
Earlier today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the economy had grown just 2.1 percent during the second quarter of this year (ending June 30). It also revised Q4 of 2018 down to just 1.1 percent, which now means that growth during the 12 months ending Q4 of 2018 was only 2.5 percent, not 3 percent as previously thought. This means that the U.S. economy has now gone 14 years without a year-over-year growth of 3 percent. It’s been 19 years since we’ve hit 4 percent, which was during 1997-2000...….
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Additional figures;
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-to-expect-in-fridays-gdp-report-222140281.htmlHere were the main numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s Friday report on gross domestic product, compared against Bloomberg-compiled consensus data. (Waiting to see what happens with the FEDS meeting next week)
Gross domestic product (GDP): 2.1% vs.1.8% expected and 3.1% in Q1
Personal consumption: 4.3% vs. 4.0% expected and 1.1% in Q1
Core PCE QoQ: 1.8% vs. 2.0% expected and 1.1% in Q1
First-quarter GPD was unrevised at 3.1%. First-quarter personal consumption was revised up to 1.1%, from 0.9% previously, and first-quarter core PCE was revised down to 1.1%, from 1.2% previously.
Personal consumption, which jumped by the most since 2017, was a leading contributor to economic expansion in the second quarter.
Ahead of Friday’s report, consensus economists had broadly anticipated a resurgence in consumption data to have supported growth in the second quarter, marking a rebound from a more anemic increase in personal consumption at the start of the year. Consumer spending comprises about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
In testimony to Congress earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called consumer spending one of the more “reliable drivers of growth in the economy,†adding that consumption activity was “now running at a solid pace†after a pullback in the first quarter. Headline retail sales, for instance, rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in each of April, May and June, after declining during a portion of the first quarter.
