Iran seizes two British tankers and makes a huge mistake

[Right_in_Virginia]

Iran seizes two British tankers and makes a huge mistake
Washington Examiner, Jul 19, 2019, Tom Rogan

There will be furious embarrassment in the British government this evening over Iran's seizure of two British oil tankers today. One of those tankers is British-flagged, and the other is British-owned.

Still, Iran has made a strategic miscalculation here.

Acting against the British while the U.K. and Iranian foreign ministers were seeking compromise over Britain's recent seizure of an Iranian tanker, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have further isolated Iran on the international stage. With a multinational naval task force for tanker escorts likely to be announced next week, the Iranians are increasingly outgunned and diplomatically isolated. Losing a drone to a U.S. warship on Thursday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is also now aware of American red lines against threats to U.S. life.

But none of that will distract from London's embarrassment.

Britain was well aware that this kind of Iranian aggression was likely. Deploying an advanced warship to the Persian Gulf, the U.K. expected to deter Iran. That calculation has clearly failed in quite spectacular fashion. The military options to retake these tankers are also weak. While Britain's Special Boat Service special forces unit has an advanced maritime counter-terrorism capability, recovering tankers now in Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps port would be an extraordinary challenge.


More:  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iran-seizes-two-british-tankers-and-makes-a-huge-mistake

[PeteS in CA]

I'm not sure, though, whether the UK has the military means to visit consequences on Iran. I'm sure they have the trained people, but I'm not sure they have the hardware to get the trained people in and out that far from the island of Britain.

[Fishrrman]

Correct, PeteS.

In Margaret Thatcher's day, the Brits had the capability AND the will to wage war -- in that time, against Argentina in the Falklands.

But Theresa May ain't no Thatcher. The only thing the two have in common is their gender.

Nor does Britain have the wherewithal any longer to wage war against the Iranians. They have a few warships, yes. But could they risk losing one or more of them?

But beyond that, "the will" is no longer there.
London's mayor is a muslim.
And isn't one of the higher officeholders in their military establishment muslim, as well?

Nope.
I really don't expect Britain to do much of anything (militarily) to resolve this.

I could be wrong, of course.
In fact, I HOPE to be proven completely wrong.

But that's the way I see it, and that's how I'm callin' it.

[jafo2010]

The Brits are reduced to a tiny navy with about 20 seagoing surface ships of consequence, and 10 subs.  In essence, they have little to go against a country like Iran that has all their land based aircraft that can fly over the Brits ships.

If they do anything, it will be token, and largely dependent on the USA to lead the way. 

[Smokin Joe]

Well, if they simply sank every Iranian naval vessel, and shoot the bejeebers of any skiff or fishing boat that came 'too' close, that might put an end to some of this. But that would likely escalate into taking out their missile launch sites, their air power, manned and drone, and generally cutting the nuts off of any but their land forces.

Or this crap will continue...

[Absalom]

Correct, PeteS.
In Margaret Thatcher's day, the Brits had the capability AND the will to wage war -- in that time, against Argentina in the Falklands.
But Theresa May ain't no Thatcher. The only thing the two have in common is their gender.
Nor does Britain have the wherewithal any longer to wage war against the Iranians. They have a few warships, yes. But could they risk losing one or more of them?
But beyond that, "the will" is no longer there.
London's mayor is a muslim.
And isn't one of the higher officeholders in their military establishment muslim, as well?
Nope.
I really don't expect Britain to do much of anything (militarily) to resolve this.
I could be wrong, of course.
In fact, I HOPE to be proven completely wrong.
But that's the way I see it, and that's how I'm callin' it.

------------------------------------
Call is on the mark!!!
The British Empire expired in the mud of Flanders in 1916.
The Royal Navy is long gone.
Missy May has resigned and did absolutely nothing during her tenure.

[PeteS in CA]

The RN was quite substantial and fought well during WW2. But ships age, and as ships were retired and made into razor blades, modern replacements were much fewer and often delayed. The Brit fleet carrier at the Falklands was decommissioned in 2014 (and the light carrier in 1984), and while 2 Queen Elizabeth Class carriers are in work-up, the first won't be operational until next year. Much as I'd love to be wrong, I do not think the Brits have the sea-going capacity to get people and hardware where they are needed to protect UK shipping or respond appropriately to Iran. It is entirely possible that Iran is playing to that weakness.