Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
By Brad Bannon, opinion contributor — 06/16/19 12:00 PM EDT
The advent of the first Democratic presidential debate in 10 days is a milestone in the race for the 2020 nomination and a good opportunity for a status update on the campaign.
Early in the nomination battle, there are only five candidates that have significant support in the national and state polls. They are former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
The other candidates are barely blips on the screen. But primary polls are reflections of name recognition and one or more of the other candidates may become more prominent if their visibility significantly increases.
Biden leads the national polls. The most recent national survey was conducted by the Economist and YouGov has him at 27 percent followed in double digits by Warren at 16 percent and Sanders at 12 percent. Next in line are Buttigieg at 8 percent and Harris at 7 percent. The other candidates don’t register significant support yet.
There have been significant changes in the national leader board in the last month.
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/448791-confused-by-polls-watch-early-primary-states-not-national-numbers