If we can't defeat lesser nations in Afghanistan in 17 years, why would be able to defeat Iran? Yes, we might if we made the real commitment, I don't see that happening.
While Trump might not be knowledgeable about the day to day understanding of international relations, he is still broadly instinctively non-interventionist.
Trump might not be Lord Palmerston or John Quincy Adams, but he understands that never-ending wars in the Middle East are stupid—especially when there’s a gigantic threat in the eastern horizon, a former Cold War rival returning to Cold War form after 20 years of liberal optimism and utopia.
And in a way, I think a lot of us know this now from experience. I don't see this article as being "anti-Trump" and I don't think the Federalist is generally speaking, ever anti-Trump.
The analysis seems okay to me.