Author Topic: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election  (Read 2159 times)

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Offline Elderberry

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Daily Beast by Jay Michaelson 04.22.19

It’s no exaggeration to say the census question could decide the 2024 election, and that’s what’s at stake as the Supreme Court takes up Department of Commerce v. New York.

If the Trump administration succeeds in adding the question “Are you a U.S. Citizen?” to the 2020 census, the Census Bureau estimates that 6.5 million people won’t respond to the census at all.

Most of those will be Hispanics or people with immigrants in their families who are fearful of exposing themselves or their family members to deportation, investigation, or worse. According to a Harvard University study, between 7.7 and 9.1 percent of Hispanics will skip the census entirely.

And that, in turn, will lead to fewer representatives in the House from states with large Hispanic populations—like California, New York, Illinois, Arizona, and Texas—and, accordingly, fewer electors in the electoral college to choose a president.

It’s no exaggeration to say that the 2024 election could be decided on the basis of this census question.

That’s what’s at stake this week as the Supreme Court takes up the case of Department of Commerce v. New York, representing four challenges to the citizenship question.

As we’ve learned over the course of those lawsuits, these anti-democratic effects of the question aren’t unintended consequences: they’re the whole reason it’s in there. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, whose department oversees the census, lied about the reasons for the change, failed to follow the law on making it, and illegally ignored the opinion of the Census Bureau itself, which urged him against it.

If true (as several lower courts have found), these are violations both of administrative law and of Article I, Sections 1 and 2 of the Constitution, which provides that for the purposes of determining congressional representation, “The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

The “Enumeration Clause,” as it is known, has been held to require the government to get the best count possible. Here, however, Ross and his minions went against the advice of their own department, their own experts, and five previous directors of the census bureau (Republicans and Democrats alike), who said that the citizenship question would lead to an inaccurate count of how many people reside in the United States.

More: https://www.thedailybeast.com/department-of-commerce-v-new-york-supreme-court-case-could-decide-2024-election-9

Offline Sanguine

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2019, 01:27:11 am »
No, it's probably not an exaggeration.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2019, 02:42:42 am »
No, it's probably not an exaggeration.
@Sanguine
@mystery-ak

The census has come up before and I said I worked in the census many years ago.  That was driving to my designated area, parking and walking house to house or driving to one house, then driving to another half a mile away, etc.  In those days, no one objected to answering the questions on the forms.  I don't know how it is done today, but no way would I go to a house where I didn't know the people.  Maybe it is all done on line?

If they put the question, "Are you a citizen of the United States?", on there and people have the physical form, the non-citizens will not return the form, will not fill out the form, will throw away the form, will burn the form, will turn it into mush with water in a blender, would use the form as the target for their darts, their BB guns, their Remington shot guns, their Semi-automatic Ruger handguns with extended magazines, their 9mm whatever brand with extended magazines.

Do not put the question there and get a count of people.
Put the question on there and not get a count of people.

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2019, 02:58:47 am »
@Sanguine
@mystery-ak

If they put the question, "Are you a citizen of the United States?", on there and people have the physical form, the non-citizens will not return the form, will not fill out the form, will throw away the form, will burn the form, will turn it into mush with water in a blender, would use the form as the target for their darts, their BB guns, their Remington shot guns, their Semi-automatic Ruger handguns with extended magazines, their 9mm whatever brand with extended magazines.

Do not put the question there and get a count of people.
Put the question on there and not get a count of people.

We're not looking for the number of people.  Based on how this census is used, we're looking for an accurate count of citizens.  Only citizens should determine the number of representatives---and the districts---within any given state.  Illegals shouldn't count toward subsidies, federal money and certainly not voting precincts.

BTW, both Clinton and Obama asked this question.
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2019, 03:12:55 am »
@Victoria33

It must of been for the 1980 Census. My household(just me) was selected for an employment survey. The census taker would come out once a week and ask me the same questions. I was salary so the answers were the same every time. It took over a month to complete.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2019, 04:13:21 am »
We're not looking for the number of people.  Based on how this census is used, we're looking for an accurate count of citizens.  Only citizens should determine the number of representatives---and the districts---within any given state.  Illegals shouldn't count toward subsidies, federal money and certainly not voting precincts.

The number of "people" in a voting precinct determines when a new voting precinct must be formed/adjusted due to the new census number if that number is above the set limit for that precinct.  In Texas, the Commissioner's Court in a county is the "drawer" of the new county precinct map.

Online sneakypete

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2019, 04:24:15 am »
Quote
Most of those will be Hispanics or people with immigrants in their families who are fearful of exposing themselves or their family members to deportation, investigation, or worse. According to a Harvard University study, between 7.7 and 9.1 percent of Hispanics will skip the census entirely.

So what? NONE of them can legally vote anyhow,and any who are caught should be sent to prison.

We either take voter fraud seriously and punish it seriously,or we no longer have any standards,never mind a nation.
Anyone who isn't paranoid in 2021 just isn't thinking clearly!

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2019, 11:28:38 am »
The number of "people" in a voting precinct determines when a new voting precinct must be formed/adjusted due to the new census number if that number is above the set limit for that precinct.  In Texas, the Commissioner's Court in a county is the "drawer" of the new county precinct map.

Exactly.  But why should representation in Congress be increased to accommodate people illegally in this country @Victoria33  ... Representation and voting are the privileges of citizenship.

This one change will help in capping voter fraud and federal spending for illegals.  We used to ask this question ..... let's do it again.
"Remember this day forever." -- President Donald J. Trump, January 6, 2021

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2019, 11:34:23 am »
Not including citizenship on the census is a Democratic-Socialist wet dream come true.  Think of the changes in Congress and the local and national voter fraud. 

Not including citizenship on the census renders it moot.
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Offline Victoria33

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2019, 01:17:00 pm »
Counties need to know the total number of people in their county and where they live in the county, no matter if they are citizens or not.

Offline Sanguine

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2019, 01:39:48 pm »
So what? NONE of them can legally vote anyhow,and any who are caught should be sent to prison.

We either take voter fraud seriously and punish it seriously,or we no longer have any standards,never mind a nation.

And, in fact, apportioning representatives according to how many people are in a district illegally seems to be a type of voter fraud, whether they vote or not.

Offline Sanguine

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2019, 01:41:45 pm »
Counties need to know the total number of people in their county and where they live in the county, no matter if they are citizens or not.

Then they need to take a survey for that purpose.  Again, apportioning elected representatives according to how many people are in the county are there illegally is just flat wrong.

Online sneakypete

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2019, 02:10:21 pm »
Not including citizenship on the census is a Democratic-Socialist wet dream come true.  Think of the changes in Congress and the local and national voter fraud. 

 

@Right_in_Virginia

Exactly,and it is a dream they have been having for decades.
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2019, 03:46:55 pm »
Counties need to know the total number of people in their county and where they live in the county, no matter if they are citizens or not.
That's true, but I'd also note that a count of how many citizens there are is an important distinction for several laws... and that being a resident noncitizen is not, in and of itself, a crime—so asking that alone should not strike fear of retribution.

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2019, 10:57:51 pm »
@Right_in_Virginia

Exactly,and it is a dream they have been having for decades.

Yup ..... and it's all finally coming true. 
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2019, 10:59:55 pm »
Counties need to know the total number of people in their county and where they live in the county, no matter if they are citizens or not.

Why @Victoria33   How would these statistics be used?
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2019, 11:18:22 pm »
Why @Victoria33   How would these statistics be used?

https://cis.org/Impact-NonCitizens-Congressional-Apportionment
Quote
seats are apportioned based on each state's total population relative to the rest of the country, including illegal aliens and other non-citizens.

Offline Jazzhead

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2019, 11:28:21 pm »
@Victoria33  is right - the Constitution requires the census to obtain an actual enumeration of persons within each state and district - citizens and non-citizens.   If you have a problem with that, your problem is with the Founders.

The census has traditionally asked other questions, including citizenship questions,  but these are peripheral to the Constitutional mandate to achieve an actual enumeration.    Since 1960,  I believe,  the census has consisted of a short form - sent to every household for the purposes of obtaining the actual enumeration - and a long form with a host of other questions, that is only sent to a subset of the population.  By use of statistical sampling,  the long form answers can be projected and used for other social and political purposes besides the actual enumeration.

What is unprecedented about the Administration's proposed change is to include the citizenship question on the short form, where it intends (according to its critics) to depress the number of persons who respond.  This is the crux of the Constitutional issue - whether including a citizenship question of all persons in a household will frustrate the Constitutional requirement of an actual enumeration.   There is substantial evidence, including from Census experts, that it will.

The citizenship question can and should be restored to the long form.   But it is likely Constitutionally defective as proposed for the short form.   
« Last Edit: April 23, 2019, 11:29:38 pm by Jazzhead »
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Offline Victoria33

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2019, 09:02:59 pm »
@Victoria33  is right - the Constitution requires the census to obtain an actual enumeration of persons within each state and district - citizens and non-citizens.   If you have a problem with that, your problem is with the Founders.

The census has traditionally asked other questions, including citizenship questions,  but these are peripheral to the Constitutional mandate to achieve an actual enumeration.    Since 1960,  I believe,  the census has consisted of a short form - sent to every household for the purposes of obtaining the actual enumeration - and a long form with a host of other questions, that is only sent to a subset of the population.  By use of statistical sampling,  the long form answers can be projected and used for other social and political purposes besides the actual enumeration.

What is unprecedented about the Administration's proposed change is to include the citizenship question on the short form, where it intends (according to its critics) to depress the number of persons who respond.  This is the crux of the Constitutional issue - whether including a citizenship question of all persons in a household will frustrate the Constitutional requirement of an actual enumeration.   There is substantial evidence, including from Census experts, that it will.

The citizenship question can and should be restored to the long form.   But it is likely Constitutionally defective as proposed for the short form.
@Jazzhead

Thanks, Jazz, for fleshing out the need for a census.  It is not just for politics.  Counties need to know where people are located to determine where roads go, the number of people on the roads, where new hospitals should be built to serve the number of people living there, companies want to know where to place their products based on population.  It is obvious counties, states, and the federal government need to know how many people live in these United States.  It shows a lack of intelligence for one here who can't figure out why we need to know how many people are in counties/states/country.
I end this with another, "Thanks Jazz".

Offline Elderberry

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Re: This Week’s Supreme Court Case Could Decide the 2024 Election
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2019, 05:42:45 pm »
In addition to questioning why we need a citizenship question,  I question why these questions were needed that were prior census questions:

2010

8. Is Person 1 of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin?
9. What is Person 1's race?