If Schultz runs as a 3rd party candidate, he splits mostly the Dem vote and Trump wins easily. Now if a conservative runs as a 3rd party candidate, or we have four people running as what happened when Lincoln ran, it is possible any one of the four could win. Lincoln won ONLY because the Democrats were split and two people ran that were Democrats. All four men that ran in Lincoln's election received Electoral College votes, but Lincoln squeaked by narrowly with I believe a whopping 34% of the Electoral College vote(if memory serves).
I predict a huge victory for Trump and the Republicans. America will be so sick of the fruitloops running around saying crazy things that they overwhelmingly vote Republican, with many Dems staying at home out of disgust.