The Democrats’ Beto Problem

[Elderberry]

National Review By Kyle Smith November 7, 2018

Tuesday showed that the enduring deep-blue coalition of the future Democrats are always talking about still lies in the future.

The Democrats had a huge opportunity to unseat Ted Cruz last night. They blew it by thinking a gentry Hollywood-style liberal was the right candidate for Texas.

The not-overly-beloved Senator Cruz defeated Representative Beto O’Rourke by 2.6 percentage points in a race an incumbent Republican should have expected to win easily, on the same night Republican governor Greg Abbott won reelection by 13 points. Yet the Democratic reaction to O’Rourke’s loss is not, as far as I can tell, “Maybe we should have listened more closely to Texas” or even “I can’t believe we burned so much money on a longshot,” but “Losing narrowly is sort of a win.” As comedian-actor Ike Barinholtz put it on Twitter, “Ah sh*t Beto didn’t make it to the Senate. Oh well at least he’ll be president soon.” Only once has a sitting House member been elected president (James Garfield), but, hey, some Democrats point out, Abraham Lincoln was a congressman who lost a Senate race before being elected president. Yes, Democrats actually think comparing Beto to Lincoln is reasonable.

O’Rourke made no attempt to disguise his extremism during the campaign.

More: https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/the-democrats-beto-problem/

[txradioguy]

IMHO...this wasn't about trying to take Cruz out of his Senate seat...this was a push at the national level to try and kill any future plans for another Presidential run by Ted Cruz.  They tried a preemptive strike and whiffed.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Dems had same problem nominating a true socialist for Gov of Florida.

Would have been huge problem for Florida to go blue, almost as big as Texas going that way.

[libertybele]

The GOP has a problem and that was very evident last night in both TX and FL.  Cruz won by a narrow margin which should have been a very easy win form him as TX has always been a sure bet for the GOP and DeSantis won by an even narrower margin.  Yes, we have millenials who are voting that are receptive to socialism, but the demographics of both states have been changing dramatically over the past several election cycles. 

Take a look at the map of FL and you will see that it is predominately red v. a few patches of blue.  However, those blue patches represent a very very heavy population of Latino's, so much that it nearly cost the GOP the election in FL.

With the mobs of illegals coming to this country and being granted asylum it's just a matter of time before the states become blue.

For all those thinking that the DEMS are going to screw up so much in the House that the GOP will get the majority back to me is a pipedream.  If things continue to where the demographics continue to change, mathematically, it will be impossible for some GOP to hold their seats.

It is no longer a matter of amnesty.  It now is a matter of granting asylum to so many that it completely changes the demographics around the country.  For many all they have to do to register to vote is show residency.  I'm not even sure that after so long after they've been granted asylum that they may be eligible to vote anyways. 

No wall is going to solve that problem.  The only thing that is going to resolve the issue is to change laws surrounding asylum, illegal immigration and our voting laws.  IMHO if the GOP/RNC doesn't get a handle on this before 2020, expect the blue wave to be greater.

[txradioguy]

The GOP has a problem and that was very evident last night in both TX and FL.  Cruz won by a narrow margin which should have been a very easy win form him as TX has always been a sure bet for the GOP and DeSantis won by an even narrower margin.  Yes, we have millenials who are voting that are receptive to socialism, but the demographics of both states have been changing dramatically over the past several election cycles. 

Take a look at the map of FL and you will see that it is predominately red v. a few patches of blue.  However, those blue patches represent a very very heavy population of Latino's, so much that it nearly cost the GOP the election in FL.

With the mobs of illegals coming to this country and being granted asylum it's just a matter of time before the states become blue.

For all those thinking that the DEMS are going to screw up so much in the House that the GOP will get the majority back to me is a pipedream.  If things continue to where the demographics continue to change, mathematically, it will be impossible for some GOP to hold their seats.

It is no longer a matter of amnesty.  It now is a matter of granting asylum to so many that it completely changes the demographics around the country.  For many all they have to do to register to vote is show residency.  I'm not even sure that after so long after they've been granted asylum that they may be eligible to vote anyways. 

No wall is going to solve that problem.  The only thing that is going to resolve the issue is to change laws surrounding asylum, illegal immigration and our voting laws.  IMHO if the GOP/RNC doesn't get a handle on this before 2020, expect the blue wave to be greater.

@libertybele as someone pointed out this morning most of the Dem increases in voter turnout are credited to Obama and DACA.

So while people are hi giving themselves over the candidates he stumped for losing...what he did while he was in office laid the groundwork for what happened last night and unless DACA is repealed and those protected under it are sent back across the border...Obama will have proven far more successful in helping turn this country towards Socialism than a lot of people realize.

[HoustonSam]

The not-overly-beloved Senator Cruz .....

By whom?  Since when?

[libertybele]

Dems had same problem nominating a true socialist for Gov of Florida.

Would have been huge problem for Florida to go blue, almost as big as Texas going that way.

I disagree.  The DEMS didn't have any problem at all, it's a matter of sheer numbers.  The country is divided; voters certainly no longer vote for who is better for the country as many don't consider themselves Americans, but hyphenated-Americans. Keep in mind that the migrant, illegal population is very receptive to and know socialism - many have been given a free ride in the U.S. and want more of what they feel they are entitled to.  Millenials are the generation of 'entitlement' as well and are receptive to socialism.  The margin of victory for Cruz was narrow and for DeSantis even narrower.  Should the demographics of either state continue to change by another 1 or 2 percent that will change the outcome of the next election.

Also keep in mind that last night was an historic event for Muslim women....that is only the beginning.  Are they Americans first or are they Muslim-Americans who are set on changing America?  Whether they are radical progressives, liberals, or socialists, they are running under the DEM umbrella.

America is being transformed.  There's no other way to look at it.

Let's let another caravan of 14,0000 in, shall we?

[Texas Yellow Rose]

The GOP has a problem and that was very evident last night in both TX and FL.  Cruz won by a narrow margin which should have been a very easy win form him as TX has always been a sure bet for the GOP and DeSantis won by an even narrower margin.  Yes, we have millenials who are voting that are receptive to socialism, but the demographics of both states have been changing dramatically over the past several election cycles. 

Take a look at the map of FL and you will see that it is predominately red v. a few patches of blue.  However, those blue patches represent a very very heavy population of Latino's, so much that it nearly cost the GOP the election in FL.

With the mobs of illegals coming to this country and being granted asylum it's just a matter of time before the states become blue.

For all those thinking that the DEMS are going to screw up so much in the House that the GOP will get the majority back to me is a pipedream.  If things continue to where the demographics continue to change, mathematically, it will be impossible for some GOP to hold their seats.

It is no longer a matter of amnesty.  It now is a matter of granting asylum to so many that it completely changes the demographics around the country.  For many all they have to do to register to vote is show residency.  I'm not even sure that after so long after they've been granted asylum that they may be eligible to vote anyways. 

No wall is going to solve that problem.  The only thing that is going to resolve the issue is to change laws surrounding asylum, illegal immigration and our voting laws.  IMHO if the GOP/RNC doesn't get a handle on this before 2020, expect the blue wave to be greater.

 

[austingirl]

The GOP has a problem and that was very evident last night in both TX and FL.  Cruz won by a narrow margin which should have been a very easy win form him as TX has always been a sure bet for the GOP and DeSantis won by an even narrower margin.  Yes, we have millenials who are voting that are receptive to socialism, but the demographics of both states have been changing dramatically over the past several election cycles. 

Take a look at the map of FL and you will see that it is predominately red v. a few patches of blue.  However, those blue patches represent a very very heavy population of Latino's, so much that it nearly cost the GOP the election in FL.

With the mobs of illegals coming to this country and being granted asylum it's just a matter of time before the states become blue.

For all those thinking that the DEMS are going to screw up so much in the House that the GOP will get the majority back to me is a pipedream.  If things continue to where the demographics continue to change, mathematically, it will be impossible for some GOP to hold their seats.

It is no longer a matter of amnesty.  It now is a matter of granting asylum to so many that it completely changes the demographics around the country.  For many all they have to do to register to vote is show residency.  I'm not even sure that after so long after they've been granted asylum that they may be eligible to vote anyways. 

No wall is going to solve that problem.  The only thing that is going to resolve the issue is to change laws surrounding asylum, illegal immigration and our voting laws.  IMHO if the GOP/RNC doesn't get a handle on this before 2020, expect the blue wave to be greater.

The idea of a STATE electoral college has been floated by Andrew Wilkow. I'm all for it. It would stop the big blue cities from running the entire state.

[libertybele]

@libertybele as someone pointed out this morning most of the Dem increases in voter turnout are credited to Obama and DACA.

So while people are hi giving themselves over the candidates he stumped for losing...what he did while he was in office laid the groundwork for what happened last night and unless DACA is repealed and those protected under it are sent back across the border...Obama will have proven far more successful in helping turn this country towards Socialism than a lot of people realize.

Yes and this is the very issue that I have a problem with Trump; he publicly made an offer of amnesty to DACA recipients. That would be a death sentence to the GOP period. It doesn't matter what kind of deal he could make with the DEMS and what he would get in return.  Any amnesty and/or increased asylum WILL change the outcome of the next election, which in essence could easily change our Republic to a socialist entity.  Now that the DEMS control the House ... it's anyone's guess as to how he will react.  His supporters are assuming that he will still want his seat in 2020; it certainly may not be the case.  While I've given this president credit for the positive things that he has done, I still remain very skeptical in how he's going to handle asylum and illegal immigration from this point forward.  This is the issue that won him the oval office, but ironically this is the issue that he has been the weakest on.

[libertybele]

The idea of a STATE electoral college has been floated by Andrew Wilkow. I'm all for it. It would stop the big blue cities from running the entire state.

How would the state electoral college work?

[Elderberry]

How would the state electoral college work?

It doesn't look like a good idea to me.

What if We Used the Electoral College to Elect State Governors?

https://www.fairvote.org/what-if-we-used-the-electoral-college-to-elect-governors

To be sure, states aren’t composed of counties in the same way that the United States is composed of states, so there’s an asymmetry here: the U.S. Electoral College has a historical and philosophical grounding that a state electoral college would lack. But if the winner-take-all Electoral College is really a good way to elect a powerful chief executive from a big and diverse population, then there’s no reason why that effectiveness shouldn’t translate to the level of a statewide race. (It’s worth noting that at least 26 states currently have more people than the entire country did at the time of the first US Census in 1790.) Instead, its failures only become more apparent.

Under state-winner-take-all rules, the Electoral College is anything but a harmonious fulfillment of the Founders’ democratic ideals. It’s long since diverged from its original intent of making all states matter in selection of the president. There’s no reason to hold it up as an example of good democratic design: no rational framer would create a state-winner-take-all rule today, and attempting to extend its principles to other elections only goes to show how unwieldy and undemocratic it is. It’s time to shake ourselves awake from the lull of the status quo and reform the Electoral College.

More at link.

[berdie]

The idea of a STATE electoral college has been floated by Andrew Wilkow. I'm all for it. It would stop the big blue cities from running the entire state.

I like the idea a lot. We have metropolitan areas in the state trying to run things. We can't deport them I suppose...but they will bleed out to the rural areas.

[Fishrrman]

txradio wrote:
"IMHO...this wasn't about trying to take Cruz out of his Senate seat...this was a push at the national level to try and kill any future plans for another Presidential run by Ted Cruz.  They tried a preemptive strike and whiffed."

It may not have been a "strike", but it most certainly was "a spare".

This wounded Cruz, badly.
Winning by 2.6 percentage points?
In Texas?
C'mon....

[Fishrrman]

libertybele wrote:
"For all those thinking that the DEMS are going to screw up so much in the House that the GOP will get the majority back to me is a pipedream.  If things continue to where the demographics continue to change, mathematically, it will be impossible for some GOP to hold their seats."

Completely correct.

Here in Connecticut, it has become all-but-impossible for a Republican to win a major office (governor, senator, representative). I don't expect to see a Republican in those offices again in my lifetime (although I'd like to be proven wrong).

The "blue areas" -- concentrated in the cities and liberal suburbs -- overwhelm the smaller town folk.

Same in states like New York, Illinois, Virginia, perhaps soon-to-be Georgia as well (Atlanta metro).

Demography is destiny.
There is also a very hush-hush truth here, as well:
Change the complexion of the population, and you change its character, as well.
We can dream and fantasize otherwise, but those dreams and fantasies will in time come to naught.

[libertybele]

txradio wrote:
"IMHO...this wasn't about trying to take Cruz out of his Senate seat...this was a push at the national level to try and kill any future plans for another Presidential run by Ted Cruz.  They tried a preemptive strike and whiffed."

It may not have been a "strike", but it most certainly was "a spare".

This wounded Cruz, badly.
Winning by 2.6 percentage points?
In Texas?
C'mon....

Ok, I can see the point now.  This was a direct hit at Cruz as Abbot fared much better; same demographic voting.

This was the most expensive Senate race in history  with Cruz being well outspent, yet he still won, so I'm not so sure that the GOP/RNC wouldn't see him as a viable presidential candidate.  After Trump, or if Trump decides not to run, who does the GOP have other than Cruz?  After all, Cruz gave Trump a run for his money.

This may indeed have been Beto's trial run.  Will we see Ted and Beto fight for the presidency?

[jafo2010]

I think the GOP and Pres Trump are in strong positions, despite losing the House.  First, regarding Cruz, he WON.  That is all that counts in the end.  The margin is insignificant.  ANd remember, he did not support Trump through the convention, and I am sure there were a number of Republicans that held that against him.  Six more years and that will be forgotten.  Plus, the Dems spent a huge sum to unseat him.  And again, HE WON!

For Trump, he kept Republicans in the position of governor in all the states but Wisconsin which were wavering states.  Florida will be critical next election.  Republican governor.  Ohio, had the maniac Kasich who worked against Trump, and I presume Dewine will fully support Pres Trump.  North Carolina, Repubican.  Georgia, Republican.

Believe me, Trump is actually in a better position now than he was prior to the election in 2016.  He has 2 years and will have nearly 4 years of RESULTS come November, 2020.

It will be HR Clinton vs Trump in 2020, and Trump takes 40 Electoral College states.

[libertybele]

I think the GOP and Pres Trump are in strong positions, despite losing the House.  First, regarding Cruz, he WON.  That is all that counts in the end.  The margin is insignificant.  ANd remember, he did not support Trump through the convention, and I am sure there were a number of Republicans that held that against him.  Six more years and that will be forgotten.  Plus, the Dems spent a huge sum to unseat him.  And again, HE WON!

For Trump, he kept Republicans in the position of governor in all the states but Wisconsin which were wavering states.  Florida will be critical next election.  Republican governor.  Ohio, had the maniac Kasich who worked against Trump, and I presume Dewine will fully support Pres Trump.  North Carolina, Repubican.  Georgia, Republican.

Believe me, Trump is actually in a better position now than he was prior to the election in 2016.  He has 2 years and will have nearly 4 years of RESULTS come November, 2020.

It will be HR Clinton vs Trump in 2020, and Trump takes 40 Electoral College states.

Your'e thinking in terms of a peaceful, lawful and civil election.  By 2020 I don't see that happening based on what is going on around the country.  Antifa just broke Tucker Carlson's front door, protests are going on in many major cities in protest of Sessions being dismissed.  Down in FL the DEMS are still bringing in votes and counting them and are in the process of DEMANDING a recount. 

Clinton is done.  She's a has been.  Her age and health aren't going to allow her to run. Provided that this country maintains some civility, the DEMS will either run Beto or one of the Castro brothers.