2018 General Election Live Thread

[catfish1957]

No, they're already talking about it. If you visit Reddit you'll see a bunch of top page threads talking about the house going after Trump etc. A lot of young people on the left truly, honestly believe that they're going to see Donald Trump put in handcuffs.

Let it be their agenda.  Until they figure out a way to (based on what will likely be a 55-45 GOP senate) get 22 GOP senators to convict after
a narrow impeachment......   it'll be sand pounding.

Clinton used his impeachment  for gain, Trump will capitalize even more in '20.

[Frank Cannon]

James Woods
‏Verified account @RealJamesWoods
40s40 seconds ago

I do think if Republicans had won it all yesterday, 2020 could have been catastrophic. Trump does well as a fighter. He will now be able to energize his base against Pelosi, Waters, Schiff, Nadler - all perfect liberal “villains” for Republicans to attack on the campaign trail.

I said it before and I'll say it again. If you were to set up the chess pieces for a successful reelection to President in 2020, this is how the board would look.

[txradioguy]

When we have deadlocked government.........    The taxpayers win.

I used to think that...then 2006 happened.  The Dems will claim the "will of the people" to go forward with their radical agenda.  And IMO they can pick off enough GOPe in the Senate to get some of it pushed through.

Glad I got most of the guns I wanted when I did...

[Night Hides Not]

I suppose it's too much to ask that the Democrats will be so all-consumed with impeaching everyone connected to the Trump administration, they'll forget about raising taxes, gun seizures and the like?
 

And those not consumed with impeachment will be running for the Democrat nomination for President.

[catfish1957]

I used to think that...then 2006 happened.  The Dems will claim the "will of the people" to go forward with their radical agenda.  And IMO they can pick off enough GOPe in the Senate to get some of it pushed through.

Glad I got most of the guns I wanted when I did...

I'm  a little more optimistic.  McCain is dead, Corker and Flake are gone,  and the overall GOP side of the senate is more conservative

[edpc]

Bullshit. Last week we had the Rats flipping 10 or 15 more seats in the House. That never got close.

They needed 23 and the headline on Drudge is predicting a gain of 34, so 10-15 sounds about right.  Just a couple days ago people here, yourself included, were scoffing at the Rove, Cook, and Silver predictions of a narrow blue House takeover.

[skeeter]

I used to think that...then 2006 happened.  The Dems will claim the "will of the people" to go forward with their radical agenda.  And IMO they can pick off enough GOPe in the Senate to get some of it pushed through.

Glad I got most of the guns I wanted when I did...

Yeah, the rats have policy carte blanc thanks to their cozy relationship with the media. They just plow straight ahead with their dangerous agenda while even the most mildly conservative proposal provokes howls from the newsreaders.

Thats an advantage thats hard to overcome.

[Frank Cannon]

I would like to thank President Obama for hitting the trail and keeping up his losing record.....

[edpc]

I used to think that...then 2006 happened.  The Dems will claim the "will of the people" to go forward with their radical agenda.  And IMO they can pick off enough GOPe in the Senate to get some of it pushed through.

On top of that, you’ve got a president that has already said he’d sign an immigration deal, even if it doesn’t have things he lived in it.  Plus, we have people here that will move the goalposts and hail it as some sort of great political move.  We saw that, after the omnibus signing.

[DCPatriot]

Am I the only one who remembers Obama's "I'm still relevant" at his "we took a shellacking" press conference after his first midterms?

E.V.E.R.Y.O.N.E. who Obama campaigned for...had their ass handed to them.

I'd love to hear from some Ted Cruz fans here tell us how President Trump wasn't responsible for pushing Ted over the finish line.

Not looking for any food fights....just honest acknowledgment of the POTUS' drawing power.

[Snarknado]

James Woods
‏Verified account @RealJamesWoods
40s40 seconds ago

I do think if Republicans had won it all yesterday, 2020 could have been catastrophic. Trump does well as a fighter. He will now be able to energize his base against Pelosi, Waters, Schiff, Nadler - all perfect liberal “villains” for Republicans to attack on the campaign trail.

I vote we give Woods a forum to run here - unleash his inner polysci major on TBR!

[DCPatriot]

I would like to thank President Obama for hitting the trail and keeping up his losing record.....

He's batting 1.000, Just unbelievable.    A twoofer there.

[240B]

[catfish1957]

Amazing...both Gillum and Nelson looked stunned already.

Nelson looks more like he belongs in a Ripley's Wax Museum.

[Sanguine]

E.V.E.R.Y.O.N.E. who Obama campaigned for...had their ass handed to them.

I'd love to hear from some Ted Cruz fans here tell us how President Trump wasn't responsible for pushing Ted over the finish line.

Not looking for any food fights....just honest acknowledgment of the POTUS' drawing power.

@DCPatriot, not looking for a food fight either, but we don't know whether Trump's visit helped or didn't.  For all we know, it caused some voters to show up to vote against Cruz.  I just don't know.   

[dfwgator]

I'm  a little more optimistic.  McCain is dead, Corker and Flake are gone,  and the overall GOP side of the senate is more conservative

More important, Paul Ryan is gone.

[Frank Cannon]

Nelson looks more like he belongs in a Ripley's Wax Museum.

Ya know Nelson is only 76 years old and he looks like a mummy. That Florida sun is a bitch.

[txradioguy]

On top of that, you’ve got a president that has already said he’d sign an immigration deal, even if it doesn’t have things he lived in it.  Plus, we have people here that will move the goalposts and hail it as some sort of great political move.  We saw that, after the omnibus signing.

@edpc @skeeter Agree completely with both of you.  They'll claim they have a mandate and the media will amplify that claim and we're off to the races.

I suppose it's too much to ask that the Democrats will be so all-consumed with impeaching everyone connected to the Trump administration, they'll forget about raising taxes, gun seizures and the like?

@mountaineer not likely they'll forget with Maxine Waters now set to chair the finance committee....Jerry Nadler heading the judiciary committee and Schiff running the  House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

[Frank Cannon]

@DCPatriot, not looking for a food fight either, but we don't know whether Trump's visit helped or didn't.  For all we know, it caused some voters to show up to vote against Cruz.  I just don't know.

Yeah. We do know. All 5 candidates Donny flew in and rallied for won. That's impressive in a first term Midterm where the GOP candidates were getting outspent by huge margins. Cruz was getting outspent around 5:1 and now we find out the Rats were getting Wetbacks to vote in TX. Donny pulled Teds ass out of the fire.

[Frank Cannon]

More important, Paul Ryan is gone.

Who?

[DCPatriot]

@DCPatriot, not looking for a food fight either, but we don't know whether Trump's visit helped or didn't.  For all we know, it caused some voters to show up to vote against Cruz.  I just don't know.

When you look at the places the POTUS visited/rallied?

Claire McCaskill "...missed it by this much".  The rally where Rush Limbaugh introduced him just the day before?

I don't believe Ted Cruz would have automatically won without the President help.   It's no slam on Ted.   

[DCPatriot]

Yeah. We do know. All 5 candidates Donny flew in and rallied for won. That's impressive in a first term Midterm where the GOP candidates were getting outspent by huge margins. Cruz was getting outspent around 5:1 and now we find out the Rats were getting Wetbacks to vote in TX. Donny pulled Teds ass out of the fire.

 

[Snarknado]

I used to think that...then 2006 happened.  The Dems will claim the "will of the people" to go forward with their radical agenda.  And IMO they can pick off enough GOPe in the Senate to get some of it pushed through.

Glad I got most of the guns I wanted when I did...

In theory maybe, but first they have to "pick off" the leadership to get anything to a vote. Although if you think about it, it might be a good move to hand Trump a few wacko bills to gleefully veto...

[Free Vulcan]

UpDATE:  Also found that she does't have to buck a full 2 1/2 point lead.  All she has to do is cheat and generate enough votes to force a runoff.

Looks like she'd have to flip about 5K votes to get it done, or disqualify 10K to him.

[mountaineer]

Ari Fleischer
‏Verified account @AriFleischer
23m23 minutes ago

My observations:

1) GOP losses in the House are in line w the historical average. R gains in the Senate were unusual.

2) If Rs had held the House, the margin would have been so small, nothing of substance would have passed anyway. Senate continues to give R judges.

3) D control of House presents peril and promise for Trump. The peril is subpoenas and investigations. The promise is Trump has a liberal foil to run against.

4) Turnout surged, but not to Presidential levels. In last 3 POTUS elections, roughly 130 million voted. In last 3 mid-terms, roughly 85 million voted. Looks like some 100 million voted yesterday.

5) The share of white voters is declining, but Ds are increasingly losing whites. White voters were 79% of all voters in 2006; 77% in 2010; 75% in 2014 and 72% yesterday. In ‘06, last time Ds took House, they lost white voters by 4 points. Ystrdy, Ds lost white voters by 10.

6) The GOP’s problem with women has grown. In ‘06, Rs lost women by 12. Ystrdy, GOP lost women by 19.

7) Turnout by voters 65+ surged yesterday, probably thanks to Trump nationalizing the election. Seniors yesterday were 26% of the electorate. In last 3 mid-terms, they were 19, 21, and 22%.

8) The youth vote was not up much. 18-29 yr. olds were 13% of the electorate yesterday. In last 3 mid-terms they were 12, 12, and 13%.

9)The education gap has grown wider.  In 2006 (last time Ds won the House) college grads were +7 for the Ds. Yesterday they were +30 for the Ds. In 2006, non-college grads were +8 for the Ds. Yesterday, they were evenly split.

Interesting observations and statistics.