Whoops! Nate Silver now HEDGING his ‘blue wave’ bet for Democrats

[Frank Cannon]

https://thenationalsentinel.com/2018/11/05/whoops-nate-silver-now-hedging-his-blue-wave-bet-for-democrats/

Red Wave: All last month political guru Nate Silver predicted that Democrats had an 80-85 percent chance of retaking the House at least, but now that the midterm elections are just a day away, he seems to be hedging his bet.

“This last set of Upshot/Siena polls has been pretty good for D’s. They’re polling in 11 districts now, and on average, the polls are coming in about 2-3 points better for Dems than the 538 Classic forecast from before the poll was entered,” the editor of FiveThirtyEight.com tweeted on Saturday.

However, he added: “I’m not at all convinced there’s movement nationally toward Democrats—the generic ballot has been very flat. But, they may be closing well in swing districts because of their big spending advantage, which ought to be a bit scary for R’s.”

[Frank Cannon]

the generic ballot has been very flat.

That's not true. It has steadily moved towards the GOP the last couple months. It is almost to even now. The GOP does very well when the Rat advantage is at +5% or less. It's at 6.