We Will Keep Congress. Here's Why.
Arthur Schaper
Posted: Nov 05, 2018 12:18 AM
The Congressional election polls are all over the map, and we have two days to go before Election Day. Real Clear Politics, the Cook Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have outlined anywhere from 40 to 60 Republican-held House Seats in their crosshairs. As expected, they are underreporting GOP opportunities for the US Senate. Republicans have nothing to lose and so much to gain in the upper chamber. How accurate are the polls? How much faith should we place in the website metrics offered by these establishment-leaning pollsters and aggregators? Not much, in my opinion.
Granted, that’s an easy argument to make right now, since most center-right pundits have argued that the pollsters were so wrong in 2016, that they will likely be wrong again. But why were they wrong? I submit that many Trump-supporting or at least Trump-leaning voters were reticent to acknowledge their support for the New York Real Estate Tycoon turned Real TV star turned Presidential candidate. But they voted for him, and he won.
In addition, the core group that showed up for Trump in 2016, working class voters, particularly white voters in the Rust Belt, don’t use the more Millennial-oriented kind of hyper-modern, blitzy technology. Most working voters are too busy … working. In fact, because of Trump’s policies, they are working much more than during the Obama Administration. Manufacturing and resource jobs are up—way up. Add to that household incomes are rising along with consumer confidence and general economic outlook. The Trump-voting Democrats, working-class Republicans, and more confident Independents don’t bother redefining their lives on social media, nor do they descant on their political views every hour on the hour. With this in mind, we can rest assured that crucial voter demographics are not paying attention to non-stop, left-wing propaganda of the mainstream Fake News media and the never-ending onslaught of campaign media.
What is going on with the House races, though? For better information, I have been paying attention Arizona native, writer, political data analyzer and prognosticator Larry Schweikart. He accurately predicted Trump’s victory, and he has mined the numbers—actually figures, as opposed to touch-feely polling—which maintains that Republican voter registrations have risen in key states. Early voting metrics confirm that GOP turnout is exceeding previous models. One could argue that those GOP voters are now siding with Democratic candidates. That argument doesn’t make sense, since Trump’s rallies in these states have surpassed turnout during his 2016 Presidential campaign.
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https://townhall.com/columnists/arthurschaper/2018/11/05/we-will-keep-congress-heres-why-n2534918
