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Author Topic: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'  (Read 700 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« on: November 04, 2018, 03:47:47 pm »
Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
By Megan Keller - 11/04/18 10:31 AM EST

FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democrat or Republican hands in Tuesday's election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.

"So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week."

However, he noted that "polls aren't always right."

"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."

"Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."

"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats," Silver added. "Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."

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https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/414759-nate-silver-says-dems-could-retake-house-or-not-both-extremely
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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2018, 06:45:18 pm »
It's nice to see Nate Silver admit his profession is on the same level as reading tea leaves and throwing Chi-Chi sticks.
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Offline XenaLee

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2018, 06:48:42 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on November 04, 2018, 03:47:47 pm
Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
By Megan Keller - 11/04/18 10:31 AM EST

FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democrat or Republican hands in Tuesday's election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.

"So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week."

However, he noted that "polls aren't always right."

"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."

"Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."

"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats," Silver added. "Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/414759-nate-silver-says-dems-could-retake-house-or-not-both-extremely

He would have come off looking a little less stupid if he had just flipped a coin.  Or used a dart board. 
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Offline Night Hides Not

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2018, 07:11:50 pm »
Quote from: XenaLee on November 04, 2018, 06:48:42 pm
He would have come off looking a little less stupid if he had just flipped a coin.  Or used a dart board.

Well, PETA would give him hell for disemboweling a goat, for the purpose of analyzing its entrails.
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Offline XenaLee

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2018, 07:15:08 pm »
Quote from: Night Hides Not on November 04, 2018, 07:11:50 pm
Well, PETA would give him hell for disemboweling a goat, for the purpose of analyzing its entrails.

Yeah, but inhumane and heartless stupid is still better than SOS dumb azz stupid.  JS....

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2018, 07:44:13 pm »
Quote from: XenaLee on November 04, 2018, 07:15:08 pm
Yeah, but inhumane and heartless stupid is still better than SOS dumb azz stupid.  JS....

 :pondering: Hmmmm.

I don't think I can completely agree with that.  Timothy McVeigh and other psychopaths took inhumane and heartless to a whole new level that I don't want to see as better than SOS dumbass stupid.  :shrug.
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Offline XenaLee

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2018, 08:26:26 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 04, 2018, 07:44:13 pm
:pondering: Hmmmm.

I don't think I can completely agree with that.  Timothy McVeigh and other psychopaths took inhumane and heartless to a whole new level that I don't want to see as better than SOS dumbass stupid.  :shrug.

Hmmm, indeed.  How did you manage to flip this discussion from some dumb azz leftie pundit to a mass murderer comparison?   :shrug:
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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2018, 08:29:05 pm »
Quote from: XenaLee on November 04, 2018, 08:26:26 pm
Hmmm, indeed.  How did you manage to flip this discussion from some dumb azz leftie pundit to a mass murderer comparison?   :shrug:

I strayed when I contemplated the inhumane psychopaths vs ordinary stupids, sorry. **nononono*
« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 08:30:29 pm by Cyber Liberty »
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Offline XenaLee

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2018, 08:33:14 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 04, 2018, 08:29:05 pm
I strayed when I contemplated the inhumane psychopaths vs ordinary stupids, sorry. **nononono*

Lol.... no problem.  We all stray from time to time.  Especially on Margarita Sundays!   888mouth
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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2018, 08:36:15 pm »
Quote from: XenaLee on November 04, 2018, 08:33:14 pm
Lol.... no problem.  We all stray from time to time.  Especially on Margarita Sundays!   888mouth

I forgot it's Sunday!  I need to get my Margarita's going!   22222frying pan
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Offline XenaLee

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2018, 08:39:36 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 04, 2018, 08:36:15 pm
I forgot it's Sunday!  I need to get my Margarita's going!   22222frying pan

Better hurry.  It's already after 3 by Aggie time!!!   :beer:
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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2018, 08:47:55 pm »
Quote from: XenaLee on November 04, 2018, 08:39:36 pm
Better hurry.  It's already after 3 by Aggie time!!!   :beer:

While the rest of the country was setting their clocks back an hour last night, AZ was standing it's ground.  As a result, all my news shows are an hour later...throws my whole day off, and there's not much holding my day together anymore since I retired last month.  I bought a wall clock to tell me what day it is, but it's up at the Castle.
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Offline XenaLee

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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2018, 08:56:35 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 04, 2018, 08:47:55 pm
While the rest of the country was setting their clocks back an hour last night, AZ was standing it's ground.  As a result, all my news shows are an hour later...throws my whole day off, and there's not much holding my day together anymore since I retired last month.  I bought a wall clock to tell me what day it is, but it's up at the Castle.

Lol.... I go by my pc, which automatically syncs with the fake time.  My bedside alarm clock still has the 'real' time.  Or.... is the other way around.    :whistle:
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Re: Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2018, 09:05:54 pm »
Quote from: XenaLee on November 04, 2018, 08:56:35 pm
Lol.... I go by my pc, which automatically syncs with the fake time.  My bedside alarm clock still has the 'real' time.  Or.... is the other way around.    :whistle:

We don't have that problem.  But then, I get new problems.  My time-stamp on TBR has to be set twice a year...lol
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