Michael Barone: Voters head to the polls to relitigate 2016
by Michael Barone
| October 31, 2018 05:23 PM
Next Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans will compete for the 42nd time in a nonpresidential-year contest — a rivalry that goes back to 1854. That’s the oldest such partisan competition in the world.
And despite the complaints of today’s Democrats that the Constitution is biased against them, Democrats have won Senate majorities 16 times versus 10 times for Republicans since senators started being elected by popular vote in 1914.
Similarly, in the 164 years of midterm Republican-Democratic House contests, Democrats have won control of the House 24 times to 17 for Republicans. In other words, over the long run of history, both parties have adapted to changes in opinion and issue focus in multiple realignments.
But over that time, each has retained its basic character. The Republican Party has been centered around a core of people thought to be typical Americans, but who are never a majority: Northern Protestants in the 19th century, married white Christians today.
The Democratic party has been a coalition of disparate groups not thought to be typically American but who together have often formed an American majority: white Southerners and Irish immigrants in the 19th century, blacks, Hispanics, and gentry liberals today.
President Trump’s candidacy in 2016 jumbled the partisan lies a bit. His stands on immigration and trade differed from both parties’ nominees over the last 60 years. His brash demeanor and disdain of polite norms cost him the support of some upscale Republican voters and won over similar numbers of downscale Democrats. But the absolute number of switchers was not large by historical standards.
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