Rush: Where We Stand One Week Out

[mystery-ak]

Where We Stand One Week Out

Oct 30, 2018




RUSH: We are one week away from the election, and what do you think is gonna happen? I went to an event out there last night. I’ve not been going to too many events, but I went to an event last night, and I can’t tell you the number of people I ran into… These are donors. I went to a donor event. A bunch of people said, “I think there’s gonna be a red wave like you can’t believe!” I tried a test on ’em.

Rather than join them in their enthusiasm, I tried to talk ’em down a little bit. I just wanted to test whether they were being emotional or whether they actually thought it out. So I ran into, “It’s gonna be a red wave. It’s gonna be big! It’s gonna shock everybody. People are gonna be stunned just like they were two years ago.” I said, “Okay. Well, I hope you’re right, but let me give you some facts on the ground.”

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: So I ran into these people at the event last night. “It’s gonna be a red wave, Rush! I listen to you every day, and I’m telling you, it’s gonna be a red wave.” I said, “I hope you’re right, but let me tell you what we’re up against. Forty-five Republicans have announced their resignations. Forty-five! I mean, that is a huge number. Many of them are committee chairmen. Not all, but many of them are committee chairmen and they are resigning or retiring because they don’t want to go back to being chumps — you know, just regular House members.

“It’s a big come-down; so they want to try to parlay their years in the House into private sector success.” I said, “Forty-five seats! Incumbency has incredible power, reelection power.” Snerdley will back me up on this. He’s a student. “The incumbent in House races wins 98% of the time. Well, we’ve got 45 Republicans who are not incumbents. We’ve got 45 Republicans who’ve never run before. Nobody knows them. I mean, in their districts they’re known, but they’re not as known as incumbents are known, not as well known.”

So that makes some of this somewhat iffy, and then there is the traditional statistical aspect which says that the party that holds the White House in the first midterms after a presidential election always loses seats. So 45 seats vacated, tough to defend. As opposed to if those 45 had not resigned and were still in the House, you could count a lot of those as reelects that you can’t count now as rereelects. This is what the left and the Drive-Bys are counting on, because many of those 45 will flip.

And then you’ve got contestable races in other parts. The Senate, of course, is another thing. Now, I mentioned this to all these people; they didn’t care. They said they are aware of this. They knew about the resigning members of Congress, retiring members. They didn’t know the number, not all of them did. But their attitude was that it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. The American people are fed up and they are sophisticated, and the people who elected Trump know exactly what’s at stake. They’re not gonna sit home.

They’re not gonna twiddle their thumbs. They’re not confident. They’re not sitting there thinking the job was done when they went and voted in 2016. It was kind of pleasant to hear. Although there was a lot of emotion in it; I can’t deny that. Now, interestingly, I ran across a piece today at a website called GreatNewsForAmerica.com, and it’s by Dr. Gerard Francis Lameiro, “expert on forecast models.” I’m not familiar with his work, but his headline is, “Red Wave Coming in the House and Senate — My forecast for the 2018 Congressional Elections.”

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