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The GOP’s October Comeback
Karl Rove October 17, 2018
Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings jolted Republican enthusiasm. The July 22 NPR/PBS News House/Marist poll, for example, found that 78% of Democrats and only 68% of Republicans considered this midterm “very important.†By October, the same poll showed the Democrats’ edge had mostly evaporated: 82% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans called the elections “very important.â€
There was a similar change in the generic ballot. In the Sept. 12 Quinnipiac poll, voters preferred Democrats to Republicans for the House by 52% to 38%. Jump to Oct. 2 and the same survey finds 49% support for the Democratic candidate and 42% for the Republican, cutting the gap in half.
But it isn’t just about Justice Kavanaugh. The GOP position has improved as Republican voters are naturally rallying to their party. Democratic voters committed to their candidates earlier than Republicans did, but starting in September—even before Democrats made the Kavanaugh confirmation a circus—Republican enthusiasm was growing. The confirmation battle was an accelerant for a trend already under way.
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