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Online Right_in_Virginia

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Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« on: October 13, 2018, 01:22:36 pm »
Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
Washington Examiner, Oct 13, 2018, Paul Bedard

This week’s White House Report Card finds President Trump still riding high after the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and buoyed by reports that Democrats have not locked down control of the House.

Democratic pollster John Zogby, who gave the president a B+ in this week’s report card, said that it is “nearly impossible” for the Democrats to win the Senate. And worse, he said that winning the House remains “elusive” despite predictions that a “blue wave” will give the Democrats a nice majority cushion.

Conservative weekly report card grader Jed Babbin, who gave Trump an A for the week, added, “The president and his family are expected to be out on the campaign trail from now until Election Day. The best news for Republicans is that Bill and Hillary Clinton will be out there too.”


More:  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/pollster-zogby-dem-house-win-far-from-certain-elusive-senate-nearly-impossible
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Offline Suppressed

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2018, 01:31:44 pm »
Trump is finally realizing his mistake of coming out and throwing insults at Congress and pushing them away right out of the gate.  He now realizes the hell he'll face if the Dems win.
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Offline ConstitutionRose

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2018, 02:54:26 pm »
It would be a great thing if the R's have enough of a majority in the House and Senate to get something done.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2018, 03:16:19 pm »
Vote and bring a friend!
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Offline skeeter

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2018, 03:24:57 pm »
Quote from: ConstitutionRose on October 13, 2018, 02:54:26 pm
It would be a great thing if the R's have enough of a majority in the House and Senate to get something done.

It would be great if the rats lost bad enough to slap some sense into the party. Because if they keep going the way their headed we're all gonna pay through the nose.
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Offline Maj. Bill Martin

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2018, 03:56:19 pm »
Quote from: Suppressed on October 13, 2018, 01:31:44 pm
Trump is finally realizing his mistake of coming out and throwing insults at Congress and pushing them away right out of the gate.  He now realizes the hell he'll face if the Dems win.

That analysis goes both ways.

Trump obviously is a bit of a loose cannon, and that's not always good.  He pissed off some folks whose help he needed.

But some in Congress are starting to realize how badly they needed a kick in ass from someone willing to hit the beach hard and start trying to retake lost ground.

It was the passivity and lack of willingness to engage that cause the "Trump problem" for the GOP in the first place.  But many in Congress are now rallying around him because they realize how badly they needed someone willing to lead a real fight.  The GOP actually is more unified, and more in sync with it's grassroots, than it has been in a long time.
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2018, 04:06:10 pm »
Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on October 13, 2018, 03:56:19 pm
That analysis goes both ways.

Trump obviously is a bit of a loose cannon, and that's not always good.  He pissed off some folks whose help he needed.

But some in Congress are starting to realize how badly they needed a kick in ass from someone willing to hit the beach hard and start trying to retake lost ground.

It was the passivity and lack of willingness to engage that cause the "Trump problem" for the GOP in the first place.  But many in Congress are now rallying around him because they realize how badly they needed someone willing to lead a real fight.  The GOP actually is more unified, and more in sync with it's grassroots, than it has been in a long time.

I'm not a supporter of Trump the man, but I have to agree with @Maj. Bill Martin completely here.  Trump won the nomination because the Republican rank and file was fed up with ineffective elected leadership.  In recent days particularly, many of the GOP in congress seem to have received a spine implant, due in part to Trump's example, and that is a good thing.
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Offline edpc

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2018, 04:17:18 pm »
Losing the House is not a certainty, but it looks highly likely, by a small margin. This was probably something that had been anticipated for a while, otherwise, Ryan probably would not have announced his departure.
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Offline endicom

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2018, 04:25:13 pm »
Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on October 13, 2018, 03:56:19 pm
That analysis goes both ways.

Trump obviously is a bit of a loose cannon, and that's not always good.  He pissed off some folks whose help he needed.

But some in Congress are starting to realize how badly they needed a kick in ass from someone willing to hit the beach hard and start trying to retake lost ground.

It was the passivity and lack of willingness to engage that cause the "Trump problem" for the GOP in the first place.  But many in Congress are now rallying around him because they realize how badly they needed someone willing to lead a real fight.  The GOP actually is more unified, and more in sync with it's grassroots, than it has been in a long time.


Trump did indeed give a kickstart to a lackadaisical GOP. But I think much of the reason for the GOPers being supine was not being able to count on support from one another. There was no reason to take a stand when knowing you'd man that foxhole alone. Trump is at least game for the fight.

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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2018, 04:44:13 pm »
Geez. and this is Zogby of all places.
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Offline Emjay

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2018, 04:48:23 pm »
Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on October 13, 2018, 03:56:19 pm
That analysis goes both ways.

Trump obviously is a bit of a loose cannon, and that's not always good.  He pissed off some folks whose help he needed.

But some in Congress are starting to realize how badly they needed a kick in ass from someone willing to hit the beach hard and start trying to retake lost ground.

It was the passivity and lack of willingness to engage that cause the "Trump problem" for the GOP in the first place.  But many in Congress are now rallying around him because they realize how badly they needed someone willing to lead a real fight.  The GOP actually is more unified, and more in sync with it's grassroots, than it has been in a long time.

Very true @Maj. Bill Martin ... I think the antics the democrats have indulged in lately may have awakened some sleeping Congress critters.   
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Offline bilo

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2018, 05:02:14 pm »
Quote from: edpc on October 13, 2018, 04:17:18 pm
Losing the House is not a certainty, but it looks highly likely, by a small margin. This was probably something that had been anticipated for a while, otherwise, Ryan probably would not have announced his departure.

It seems that the Pubs in the House in the most trouble are the "moderate" Pubs. The Senate doesn't have a lot of those running. The "moderate" Pubs in the Senate that are up for re-election are retiring. IOW, the whole reason the Pubs are serious trouble is because of the "moderates". Other than judges what have they done? They failed to repeal obamacare. They didn't do anything about immigration.
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2018, 05:13:02 pm »
Trump is out almost every day doing rallies, for GOP candidates. Working very hard, for things and people that conservatives agree can make a difference.







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Offline Emjay

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2018, 05:31:53 pm »
Quote from: skeeter on October 13, 2018, 03:24:57 pm
It would be great if the rats lost bad enough to slap some sense into the party. Because if they keep going the way their headed we're all gonna pay through the nose.

Speaking of 'noses', it would be a perfect example of cutting off your nose to spite your face to advocate letting democrats win to 'slap some sense' into Republicans.

Our best hope is to get enough of a majority to give the slackers some motivation and courage.

BTW, have you observed any democrats lately.  I don't want them on the planet and certainly not in office.
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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2018, 07:33:03 pm »
Zogby knows. He's got the special sauce.

And we're not going to lose the House.
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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2018, 11:57:13 pm »
skeeter wrote:
"It would be great if the rats lost bad enough to slap some sense into the party"

Why in heck would we want that?

I want to see the democrat-communists get crazier and crazier, until they are so far removed from reality that they turn into some political black hole and consume themselves...
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2018, 01:53:24 am »
Quote from: edpc on October 13, 2018, 04:17:18 pm
Losing the House is not a certainty, but it looks highly likely, by a small margin. This was probably something that had been anticipated for a while, otherwise, Ryan probably would not have announced his departure.
haven't seen much to say 'highly likely'.

this is what i see instead.
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Offline Chosen Daughter

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2018, 02:38:12 am »
Quote from: austingirl on October 13, 2018, 03:16:19 pm
Vote and bring a friend!

Dems bring the dead.
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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2018, 10:19:22 am »
Didn't Zogby also predict John Kerry would win? Or do we like him now?
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Offline edpc

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2018, 10:49:32 am »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on October 14, 2018, 01:53:24 am
haven't seen much to say 'highly likely'.

this is what i see instead.



I think those are all members of the Senate.  In my state of KS, we’re going to lose at least one, possibility two House seats.  The potential loss of 1/2 of the House seats in a heartland state Trump won by 20 points two years ago isn’t a good sign for the midterms.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ks/kansas_3rd_district_yoder_vs_davids-6653.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ks/kansas_2nd_district_watkins_vs_davis-6496.html
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 11:11:10 am by edpc »
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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2018, 12:21:21 pm »
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Online libertybele

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2018, 01:07:33 pm »
Polls haven't been accurate for the past several election cycles.  I think that the GOP is in trouble. 

Hope we see record turn out.  Another Schumer Senate and Pelosi House would be a disaster for this country and they will try to impeach one of the best Presidents we've had in decades.
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Offline edpc

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2018, 02:14:22 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on October 14, 2018, 01:07:33 pm
Another Schumer Senate and Pelosi House would be a disaster for this country and they will try to impeach one of the best Presidents we've had in decades.


That’s a bullet they only get to fire once.  The most likely scenario is losing the House and picking up a couple Senate seats.  There will be endless investigations in the House, between the new session and 2020 election.  If they try to impeach, it’ll be in late summer or early fall of the presidential election year.  The border wall was difficult enough with congressional majority.  You can forget about it with a divided Congress.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2018, 02:43:05 pm »
Quote from: edpc on October 14, 2018, 10:49:32 am

I think those are all members of the Senate.  In my state of KS, we’re going to lose at least one, possibility two House seats.  The potential loss of 1/2 of the House seats in a heartland state Trump won by 20 points two years ago isn’t a good sign for the midterms.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ks/kansas_3rd_district_yoder_vs_davids-6653.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ks/kansas_2nd_district_watkins_vs_davis-6496.html
That seems bad.

However, this is ABC, which forecast on Oct 3 2016 that Hillary would get 68% of the electoral votes for President.
https://abcnews.go.com/fivethirtyeight/video/fivethirtyeight-election-forecast-update-oct-2016-55767774
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Offline edpc

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Re: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,' Senate 'nearly impossible'
« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2018, 03:27:07 pm »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on October 14, 2018, 02:43:05 pm
That seems bad.

However, this is ABC, which forecast on Oct 3 2016 that Hillary would get 68% of the electoral votes for President.
https://abcnews.go.com/fivethirtyeight/video/fivethirtyeight-election-forecast-update-oct-2016-55767774


You go with the information you have at the time.  We knew OH and PA were there for the taking in October 2018.  Everything pointed to a repeat of 2000, with FL being the clincher.  However, anyone who claimed at that time they knew Trump would take MI, WI, and come close to MN isn’t being honest.  I don’t see a wave either way, but it definitely looks like there will be some additions to the Senate majority and a narrow loss in the House.
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