Red wave? Not so fast, Republicans
By Douglas Schoen, opinion contributor — 10/07/18 10:00 AM EDT
Many Republicans believe that the Senate vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court will shift the tide of a blue wave and increase Republican enthusiasm as we approach the November midterm elections. There is, however, a stronger chance that Democrats will benefit the most, politically, from the confirmation of a new justice.
Indeed, Democrats will make significant gains among female voters who are deeply troubled with the way that Senate Republicans handled the very serious and very credible allegation of sexual assault made against Justice Kavanaugh by Christine Blasey Ford in her testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Given this momentum, Democrats not only will consolidate their lead on winning back the House, but the gravity of this confirmation will narrow multiple Senate races as well.
To be sure, it has become almost an article of political faith on the right for the last two weeks that the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh would lead to an increase in enthusiasm among Republicans. Indeed, based on idiosyncratic evidence, it would appear that that has happened. However, the Republican momentum we see today is unlikely to be sustained for the entirety of the next month. In fact, it would directly conflict with the more favorable turnout projections we have observed for Democrats for the better part of the past two years.
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/410270-red-wave-not-so-fast-republicans
