It is very likely that McConnell knows much more than we do about how the vote looks. It is also very likely that some Senators who are uncommitted publicly at this point have made it clear in private that unless there is some earth-shattering revelation, they'll vote for Kavanaugh.
I don't think even some Democrats like the idea of kicking a guy to the curb based on uncorroborated, indeed largely contradicted, 35 year old allegations about behavior in high school. The precedent that would set has to be alarming for many of them. But they're willing to go that far because of pressure from their base, anger over Merrick Garland, and desire not to seat a conservative.
But I really have a hard time seeing why any of those Republicans would go along with setting such a dangerous precedent. Their base leans the opposite, they all supported not confirming Garland, and none of them appear opposed to Kavanaugh on philosophical grounds. Appeasing the military feminists who are not part of their base doesn't seem sufficient to overcome that.
