Your logic is impeccable. Problem is....
we no longer live in a "logical world".
He stands Diagnosed at a remove as a narcissist, by Quacks who list it as a Mental Disorder (except that narcissism happens to be a part of the human condition, not a mental disorder.) It refuses to let him be truly beaten by anyone.
Look at how he keeps doubling down on those thieving, spying, Orwellian ChiComs.
Their reaction, while at first glance it can be viewed as them counter punching: moving in on Botswana (worlds largest producer of diamonds) and now Venezuela (oil and infrastructure to produce it) are something they'd have done anyway. They just sped up the time line on their infamous 'belt and silk road' agenda.
While I don't know What he's gonna do to frustrate them there, I'm sure, will run true to his nature.
His Narcissist will continue to double down against them in ways designed to benefit America by screwing them.
I doubt very much he'll just sit there with egg on his face, or apologize and back off. It's not in him.
If I'm sure of anything about Trump, it's that he's a Street Fighter First and not just another disgusting, Sell Out Diplomat.