I think it's a paranoid conspiracy theory propagated primarily by the most fanatical supporters of Donald Trump. I am not talking about all or most Trump supporters, of course.
I almost agree with you - Though I cannot vote the poll, because the correct answer would be 'both'.
There is an old adage that a church ceases to be a church the minute the pews are moved in... And I think that to be true - There is in any organization a distinct and inherent drive toward promotion and survival. The church would, in some sense, become more about its bricks and mortar than it is about its message.
That innate drive toward continuity is also present in government, with the unfortunate sum-total that, in the case of promotion and survival, government of its own weight, will try to get bigger, badder, faster, better; and that, in the perspective of an all powerful state, IS communism/socialism.
Thus the 'deep state' is to be found in the places of government that draw a pension. Those middle management departments that do not change with elections... That those tend toward authoritarianism, and are comfortable with an overweening state should be no surprise.