Beto O’Rourke and the Democrats’ Turnout Dilemma
By Jonathan S. Tobin
September 1, 2018 5:30 AM
The Texas Senate candidate will have to prove he can mobilize minority voters before he is anointed as the new Obama.
As far as Texas Democrats are concerned, the future has arrived in the person of Representative Beto O’Rourke. Though Democrats have been predicting for years that Texas would eventually be transformed from red to blue through the magic of the Lone Star State’s changing ethnic demography, few even on the left had been willing to claim that this would happen as soon as 2018.
But with the latest polls showing O’Rourke in a virtual dead heat with Senator Ted Cruz in the latter’s attempt to be reelected, it’s hard to blame Democrats for being giddy about his prospects, as well as those of their party, in a state that is the GOP’s largest electoral stronghold. The Emerson poll that gave Cruz only a one percentage point lead over O’Rourke was a stunner but it is actually consistent with other surveys that have shown the race to be competitive with the RealClearPolitics average of polls giving the incumbent only a 5.5 percent advantage. But before Democrats start celebrating, there are two key questions that need to be answered about the Texas Senate race.
The first is whether this election is more of a referendum on O’Rourke’s popularity and Cruz’s unpopularity than a measure of the two parties’ respective strengths. The second is whether optimism about O’Rourke and the prospects of the Democrats in Texas can be backed up by the kind of minority voter turnout that could bring them victory. If the answer to the second question turns out to be negative, then despite the scare O’Rourke is giving Cruz in particular and Republicans in general, their enthusiasm will turn out to be political fool’s gold.
The stakes in the Texas Senate race shouldn’t be underestimated.
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https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/09/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-texas-senate-race/
