New forecast predicts fewer storms for 2018 hurricane season

[thackney]

New forecast predicts fewer storms for 2018 hurricane season
http://www.fox35orlando.com/weather/new-forecast-predicts-fewer-storms-for-2018-hurricane-season
JUL 05 2018

...The Colorado State University released its seasonal forecast, saying that the east coast and Gulf of Mexico will experience a "below average hurricane season."

Experts behind the prediction are now lowering the number of major hurricanes this season from seven down to four. The change in forecast is due to the water temperature in the Atlantic being cooler than average and because of the developing El Niño, which suppresses the Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters previously predicted this season would near-normal or above-normal, with 10 to 16 named storms. Five to nine of those would become hurricanes, while only one to four could be major storms with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. ...

[thackney]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-02-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-csu-twc-july

...There are several reasons these outlooks are calling for lower numbers in 2018:

1. Atlantic Ocean Temperature Patterns

A pattern of cooler-than-average water temperatures has persisted and expanded in the eastern Atlantic and in the central northern Atlantic....

2. Transition Toward El Niño Becoming More Possible
Waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have warmed above average but are still short of El Niño conditions as of early July....

3. Increasing North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), defined as a pattern of pressure gradients over the northern Atlantic Ocean, is expected to remain positive through the next few months....