Electric Vehicles Begin To Bite Into Oil Demand

[thackney]

I put up the article for discussion, but I have a lot of doubt the title claim is true.

Electric Vehicles Begin To Bite Into Oil Demand
https://www.forbes.com/sites/feliciajackson/2018/04/25/electric-vehicles-begin-to-bite-into-oil-demand/#77eea80a5393
APR 25, 2018

Projections have suggested that the advent of electric vehicles will have a dramatic impact on oil demand and now its starting to show. With China adding the equivalent of London’s bus fleet every 5 weeks, that’s 279,000 barrels of oil a day removed from demand.

The latest report from Bloomberg New Energy shows that economics are driving the change, with the total cost of ownership of electric buses far outperforming the alternatives. The report says a 110kWh battery e-bus coupled with the most expensive wireless charging reaches parity with a diesel bus on total cost of ownership at around 60,000 km traveled per year (37,000 miles). This means that a bus with the smallest battery, even when coupled with the most expensive charging option, would be cheaper to run in a medium-sized city, where buses travel on average 170km/day (106 miles).

Today large cities with high annual bus mileages therefore choose from a number of electric options, all cheaper than diesel and CNG buses. The BNEF report says, ‘Even the most expensive electric bus at 80,000km per year has a TCO of $0.92/km, just at par with diesel buses. Compared to a CNG bus, it is around $0.11/km cheaper in terms of the TCO. This indicates that in a megacity, where buses travel at least 220km/day, using even the most expensive 350kWh e-bus instead of a CNG bus could bring around $130,000 in operational cost savings over the 15-year lifetime of a bus.


For every 1,000 battery-powered buses on the road, about 500 barrels a day of diesel fuel will be displaced from the market, according to BNEF calculations. In 2018, the volume of oil-based fuel demand that buses remove from the market may rise 37 % to 279,000 barrels a day, or approximately the equivalent of the oil consumption of Greece. By 2040, this number could rise as high as 8 million barrels per day (bpd).

This will make a significant dent in oil demand but overall the market appears confident that petrochemicals will make up the difference in demand. That question remains open however, as the plastics market particularly continues to evolve....

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Note the title sounds as if it has happened, but the article talks about projected future cuts in demand.

[thackney]

We had some dips in demand with the big price spikes several years ago.  But demand has picked back up not showing cuts as this article implies.



4-Week Avg U.S. Refiner Net Input of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRRIUS2&f=4



4-Week Avg U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=4



4-Week Avg U.S. Product Supplied of Distillate Fuel Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDIUPUS2&f=4

[IsailedawayfromFR]

The article seems to undercut the title as it says plainly that increased plastics production will make up for any lessened transportation demands of crude. 

A couple of other things come to mind:

1. lessened demand of 8 mmbopd due to running electric buses?  Seems absurb.

2. Writer fails to comprehend where the electricity will come from that supplies electricity for all those buses.  Since a lot will come from coal or gas-fired power plants, there will simply a shift from gasoline to those fuels.

In all, this appears to be more of a hopeful expectation rather than a real study.

[MajorClay]

I doubt its validity too.

[Smokin Joe]

Smells like BS to me. Limited range, poor cold climate utility, limited market=wishful thinking, imho.

[240B]

Electricity is oil. Liberal Greens think electricity is made from rainbows and unicorn poop. The fact is that the majority of electric plants on Earth convert oil into electricity. That has been the argument from the beginning. What difference does it make if you are burning oil in the electric plant or in a car?

[thackney]

Electricity is oil. Liberal Greens think electricity is made from rainbows and unicorn poop. The fact is that the majority of electric plants on Earth convert oil into electricity. That has been the argument from the beginning. What difference does it make if you are burning oil in the electric plant or in a car?

@240B

Nope.

Outside the Middleeast, you don't see that as a majority electrical power source and even there it is changing.  Too expensive to burn that way with better choices.  In the following chart, oil is included in the tiny fraction that uses liquid fuel to make power.  The reason renewables is so large is primarily hydropower using dams.



International Energy Outlook 2017
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2017).pdf
Slide 79

[IsailedawayfromFR]

@240B

Nope.

Outside the Middleeast, you don't see that as a majority electrical power source and even there it is changing.  Too expensive to burn that way with better choices.  In the following chart, oil is included in the tiny fraction that uses liquid fuel to make power.  The reason renewables is so large is primarily hydropower using dams.



International Energy Outlook 2017
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2017).pdf
Slide 79

I recall in the 80s Japan used to buy Indonesian Duri crude and burned it directly at the boiler tip to generate electricity. No more.

[thackney]

I recall in the 80s Japan used to buy Indonesian Duri crude and burned it directly at the boiler tip to generate electricity. No more.

They still burn a little, or maybe diesel for peaking.

Japan Electrical Power Generation
Coal  34%
Oil 7%
Gas 41%
Hydro 8%
Nuclear 2%
Biofuels 4%
Wind 1%
Geothermal 0%
Solar 4%

https://www.iea.org/media/countries/Japan.pdf

[Smokin Joe]

They still burn a little, or maybe diesel for peaking.

Japan Electrical Power Generation
Coal  34%
Oil 7%
Gas 41%
Hydro 8%
Nuclear 2%
Biofuels 4%
Wind 1%
Geothermal 0%
Solar 4%

https://www.iea.org/media/countries/Japan.pdf

Actually, I wonder why they don't use geothermal. There must be some hotspots over there.

[thackney]

Actually, I wonder why they don't use geothermal. There must be some hotspots over there.

The have some, but was less than 0.5% of total power generation at 2016.  It is growing now.

Approximately 80% of energy potential of {Japan's} geothermal is located within the areas of Natural Parks stipulated by Natural Parks Act.

Consequently, Geothermal Power Plants have been developed mainly outside of these natural parks.

However, after the accident at nuclear power plants in Fukushima, Ministry of Environment issued the guideline which lifted restrictions on drilling at national parks.

http://geothermal.jogmec.go.jp/report/file/session_160602_01.pdf

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Actually, I wonder why they don't use geothermal. There must be some hotspots over there.

maybe that geothermal power plant on Hawaii that has been engulfed by lava flows is the reason.

[Joe Wooten]

maybe that geothermal power plant on Hawaii that has been engulfed by lava flows is the reason.

In Japan, the geothermal plants would be buried in ashfalls...... No shield volcanoes there, all stratovolcanoes.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Actually, I wonder why they don't use geothermal. There must be some hotspots over there.

Quakes?

That's a total guess, BTW.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

In Japan, the geothermal plants would be buried in ashfalls...... No shield volcanoes there, all stratovolcanoes.

I recall my visit to a geothermal plant site in the 80's on the Indonesian island of Java.  There were wells drilled there, capable of emitting quite impressive volumes of steam.

As I scanned the site, I noticed several small mountains in the vicinity and asked the manager whether there were any volcanoes in the area.  He pointed out one of the nearby mountains and said it erupted a couple of years ago and spread two inches of ash onto the site we were standing on.

I must have been pretty naive back then not to realize the reason the geothermal was there was the magma was close to the surface, and yes, volcanoes are the result.