Author Topic: Ukraine 4 (Read 224573 times)

Well its been quite a week. It has seen some of the most doom-laden reporting of the entire war since February 2022 (particularly in the New York Times) with prognostications that Russia is on the verge of a great success. However on the battlefield things are, as usual, hardly moving in the key front of the Donbas. Moreover, in the strategic air campaign, Ukraine seems actually to be showing great initiative and having success—with another large attack last night. This might be the week when there was the largest disconnect between what I see happening and how its being reported. This is not to say that Ukraine is succeeding and Russia failing—its just that the narrative of Russian success remains based on what they might accomplish, not what we have seen to this time.
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Its best to start with the Russian offensive at Kharkiv, which has been described in the area of greatest Russian success and Ukrainian failure. The New York Times described it in a feature story as a “stunning” invasion which punched threw Ukrainian lines overrunning large areas.

That campaign is now almost 10 days old and is entering a familiar pattern. After a modest amount of forward movement at start—advances have slowed significantly and losses are mounting up. ...
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Russian advances in the past week have been 2-3 kilometres in places—but once again are on a decreasing trend (they seized 80-90% of the land that they occupy in Kharkiv in the first three days of the attack).
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On Friday I sent out a post to subscribers on what were three nights of well-coordinated Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and Russia itself. They hit Russian airfields, naval bases and oil refineries—and seemed to befuddle Russian anti-air and sea defenses.

2-3 Km (1.24-1.86 miles) advance and then stopped. It's an advance, obviously, but it's tiny and will probably cost Russia thousands of men and scores or hundreds of vehicles.

Over time - a year and more - Ukraine has sunk enough ships near and in Sevastopol that the Black Sea has reduced its presence there to a bare minimum, and the Russian base at Novorossiysk is under frequent attack. Air defenses and air bases in Crimea are frequently and destructively attacked. The Krasnodar Krai (which includes Novorossiysk) is under frequent attack. Attacks on oil refineries and storage facilities have impacted Russia's oil industry - fuel for civilians and invaders of Ukraine, and for export.

Timber Rattler · « **Reply #2848 on:** **Today** at 02:02:24 pm »

Basically, Putin threw this year's crop of conscripts into a mass attack on the Kharkiv axis...they overrun the Ukrainian lines for a mile or two and then bogged down again after they started getting slaughtered by drones and arty. Same old pattern from the Bakhmut warfighting model.