Pollster Gets Shock Trump Results, Immediately Disavows Own Poll

[rangerrebew]

Pollster Gets Shock Trump Results, Immediately Disavows Own Poll

By Ben Marquis
May 7, 2018 at 8:24am
 

Much has been said and written about the use of polls and polling data over the past few years, particularly as it related to candidate-turned-President Donald Trump and typically in regard to how poll samples are skewed to disfavor him and marginalize his support.

According to Breitbart, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Friday contained results that were so against the grain of that poll’s usual results that the pollsters actually added in a sort of disclaimer when the results were released, seemingly disavowing the results of their own poll.

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/pollster-shock-results-disavow/

[rangerrebew]

I would think this reflects the rise in black approval, another statistic I'm sure they deny.

[Frank Cannon]

LOL. Trust our polling......but our polling sucks. What a bunch of clowns.

[Victoria33]

Voters have so much information coming to them from the internet now, plus numerous news stations on all the time, every day, they can change their mind at any time.  Before information was so prevalent, they got news once a day in the evening from the major news agencies, ABC, CBS, NBC, and daily newspapers.  They didn't change their mind much then, but now do.  Cable news started the change, and the internet made the big difference, plus phones able to give them news minute by minute wherever they are.  This makes polls not as reliable as they were even a few years ago.  At this point, I don't believe any poll is reliable.

[Frank Cannon]

Voters have so much information coming to them from the internet now, plus numerous news stations on all the time, every day, they can change their mind at any time.  Before information was so prevalent, they got news once a day in the evening from the major news agencies, ABC, CBS, NBC, and daily newspapers.  They didn't change their mind much then, but now do.  Cable news started the change, and the internet made the big difference, plus phones able to give them news minute by minute wherever they are.  This makes polls not as reliable as they were even a few years ago.  At this point, I don't believe any poll is reliable.

Polls have always been garbage.

[Suppressed]

Well, there's a reason to be cautious with outliers.  False positives are a real thing. 




https://xkcd.com/882/

[Right_in_Virginia]

Spike in Support for Trump Causes Pollster to Reject Own Poll
Breitbart, May 7, 2018, Neil Munro

A poll shows that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has spiked since April 27 — prompting the Reuters/Ipsos polling team to quarantine their data.

“Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one,” the pollster announced. “So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.”

The spike shows Trump getting 50 percent support from swing-voting independents, 80 percent support from the GOP supporters and 20 percent support from Democrats, with very few people declaring themselves “not sure.”



***

The large percentage who report “lean towards disapprove”  on the issues is significant. It may be good for Trump because it shows that roughly one-in-five people in the Democratic coalition is not strongly opposed to Trump’s policies. Similarly, the “don’t know” average of roughly 7 percent in the second chart is much higher than the “not sure” numbers in the first chart, which may signal some hidden support for Trump.





More:  http://www.breitbart.com/2018-elections/2018/05/06/ipsos-poll-shows-spike-trump-support/

[truth_seeker]

The article headline,, don't match the body of the article, which states:

"A poll shows that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has spiked since April 27 — prompting the Reuters/Ipsos polling team to quarantine their data.
 
“Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one,” the pollster announced. “So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.”

The motive by Breitbart appears to be a headline that "riles up" Trump supporters.

[Emjay]

Voters have so much information coming to them from the internet now, plus numerous news stations on all the time, every day, they can change their mind at any time.  Before information was so prevalent, they got news once a day in the evening from the major news agencies, ABC, CBS, NBC, and daily newspapers.  They didn't change their mind much then, but now do.  Cable news started the change, and the internet made the big difference, plus phones able to give them news minute by minute wherever they are.  This makes polls not as reliable as they were even a few years ago.  At this point, I don't believe any poll is reliable.

Plus, I'm wondering about their polling techniques.  Back when everyone had landlines, they would poll by phone.  I got polled often and I usually responded.  On-line polls are notoriously unreliable.  How do they poll?  One way was to have a select group of a few people supposedly representing the country as a whole.  I read a sci fi story once about polling being done based on ONE person.

[Emjay]

The article headline,, don't match the body of the article, which states:

"A poll shows that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has spiked since April 27 — prompting the Reuters/Ipsos polling team to quarantine their data.
 
“Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one,” the pollster announced. “So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.”

The motive by Breitbart appears to be a headline that "riles up" Trump supporters.

We don't need riling up, we stay that way.  I thought the headline was pretty funny.

[truth_seeker]

I am receiving many calls, claiming to be polls, but really "push polls," to advance a particular candidate.

A prominent Republican is opposing Dana Rohrabacher. These two guys are really getting down and dirty.

Dana's opponent, longtime Chair of the OC GOP, is charging Dana with being in office 30 years, favoring Russia, etc.

Dana is calling him out for being supported by #nevertrumpers, lobbying for the despised sober-living industry, favoring amnesty etc. (moderate)

I am all in for my incumbent Dana. The other guy feel he has waited long enough, to take over the position. I think he is a sleazeball lobbyist.

[Concerned]

The article headline,, don't match the body of the article, which states:

"A poll shows that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has spiked since April 27 — prompting the Reuters/Ipsos polling team to quarantine their data.
 
“Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one,” the pollster announced. “So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.”

The motive by Breitbart appears to be a headline that "riles up" Trump supporters.

Exactly right.  One data point does not make a trend or a pattern.

[Suppressed]

I read a sci fi story once about polling being done based on ONE person.

"Franchise," by Isaac Asimov