Trump exit from Iran nuclear deal enters uncharted territory

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump exit from Iran nuclear deal enters uncharted territory
Associated Press, May 5, 2018, JOSH LEDERMAN and MATTHEW LEE

If President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to pull the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal on May 12, the rest of the world will be thrust into uncharted territory, forced to navigate a complex web of U.S. sanctions that were lifted under the landmark accord but would ostensibly be put back in place.

Would Trump re-impose sanctions on those who do business with Iran? How quickly? And would Europe follow suit? How would Iran respond? And what happens to Iran’s pre-existing obligations to allow nuclear inspections?

“It’s going to be very complicated,” said Ama Adams, who advises clients on international sanctions compliance at the law firm Ropes & Gray. “There are lots of opportunities to trip up and make mistakes. It’s going to be a period of a lot of activity and flurry.”

A look at possible scenarios for what stays and goes if Trump exits the accord:


Read more:  https://apnews.com/f747a460cbcb4f729923274f909a9ae0

[edpc]

We know through the intelligence gathered by Israel that Iran has a nuclear weapons program ready to go.  They’ve also threatened to enrich uranium to 20% ‘within days’ if the deal is broken.  They’ll ramp up beyond that quickly.  It’s fairly obvious what their intentions are the moment the deal expires, even if they’re currently not cheating.  There’s no reason to kick this can down the road to another admin with unknown resolve and will to confront them.  Just be done with it now.

[Oceander]

We know through the intelligence gathered by Israel that Iran has a nuclear weapons program ready to go.  They’ve also threatened to enrich uranium to 20% ‘within days’ if the deal is broken.  They’ll ramp up beyond that quickly.  It’s fairly obvious what their intentions are the moment the deal expires, even if they’re currently not cheating.  There’s no reason to kick this can down the road to another admin with unknown resolve and will to confront them.  Just be done with it now.

In which case, perhaps the better question is:  will Israeli special forces be ready to go on May 12 (or whatever future day Trump chooses).

[edpc]

In which case, perhaps the better question is:  will Israeli special forces be ready to go on May 12 (or whatever future day Trump chooses).

I can't say.  I'm not a fan of Trump and I'm not particularly impressed with the choice of Bolton, especially when he refuses to acknowledge the disaster of Iraq.  Nevertheless, I'm more comfortable with people like Mattis and Pompeo to develop a good plan of action in conjunction with Netanyahu, if it ever goes hot.  I'd rather have people like that in the fray now than unknown elements in 2025.

[endicom]

If the sanctions are being reinstated then this is not uncharted territory.

[Right_in_Virginia]

 Nevertheless, I'm more comfortable with people like Mattis and Pompeo to develop a good plan of action in conjunction with Netanyahu, if it ever goes hot.  I'd rather have people like that in the fray now than unknown elements in 2025.

I'm really hoping that "good plan of action" does not include American blood.

Treasure, yes; blood, no.  We've left more than enough of it in Middle East sand.

[TomSea]

For starters, Iran got a big influx of cash from that deal, that allowed them to stir up things in their area of the world apparently. The first steps might appear impotent to us, but that might include sanctions and freezing assets.

[Right_in_Virginia]

If the sanctions are being reinstated then this is not uncharted territory.

From the article, here's why some think it could be @endicom ...  It's not a showstopper, IMO, but it will be interesting to watch unfold.

What would Europe do? Germany, France and the U.K. have suggested they have no intention of leaving the deal, even if the U.S. withdraws. But it might not matter much. The global financial system is so interconnected and so tied to New York that it would be almost impossible for anyone anywhere in the world to continue their business with Iran without risk of violating U.S. sanctions. For example, Europe businesses owned or controlled by American parent companies would breach the sanctions if they didn’t cut off Iran.

It’s a major dilemma for European businesses, made even more complicated if the European Union decides to invoke a measure put in place in the 1990s to counter the U.S. embargo on Cuba. The EU can use those regulations to prohibit European companies from complying with some U.S. sanctions. That puts businesses in the position of choosing whether to defy the United States or the EU.

https://apnews.com/f747a460cbcb4f729923274f909a9ae0

[edpc]

I'm really hoping that "good plan of action" does not include American blood.

Treasure, yes; blood, no.  We've left more than enough of it in Middle East sand.

That’s kind of my point where Bolton is concerned.  The possession of nuclear weapons by Iran is an existential threat to Israel.  The expansion of Iran into Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon makes it unnecessary for Iran to develop sophisticated, long range missiles.  According to Israel, the Iranian design is a 10kt warhead, which isn’t very large.  A good design can make a device of only 50kg delivery Hiroshima equivalent power.  They can mount that on a drone or smaller missiles like the Fateh and Zelzal.  We’d almost certainly get involved, with air strikes at a minimum.  Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.

[endicom]

From the article, here's why some think it could be @endicom ...  It's not a showstopper, IMO, but it will be interesting to watch unfold.

Interesting, yes. The Euros are much more susceptible to nuclear blackmail than we are so they will be making a big bet.

[edpc]

Rouhani Says Plans In Place For Any Trump Decision On Nuclear Deal: TV


Reuters May 6, 2018

DUBAI (Reuters) - President Hassan Rouhani said on Sunday Iran had plans to respond to any move by U.S. President Donald Trump on the 2015 nuclear agreement and the United States would regret a decision to exit the accord.

Trump says that unless European allies rectify "flaws" in Tehran's deal with world powers by May 12 he will refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief for Iran.

"We have plans to resist any decision by Trump on the nuclear accord," Rouhani said in a speech carried live by state television.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rouhani-says-plans-place-trump-decision-nuclear-deal-065011989.html

[edpc]

Netanyahu Says Better To Face Iran Sooner Rather Than Later

Israel will do what’s needed to block Iranian aggression, sooner rather than later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday.

“Nations that didn’t act in time against murderous aggression against them paid a much higher price later on,” said Netanyahu, who often invokes European powers’ 1938 agreement to let Nazi Germany annex portions of Czechoslovakia. “We don’t seek escalation, but are prepared for any scenario.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-06/israel-pm-better-to-confront-iran-sooner-rather-than-later?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=bd&utm_campaign=headline&cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Since Congress was not consulted in this treaty which is required per Constitution, this 'deal' or whatever it is, is not legitimate anyway. 

So there is no problem to start with in violating anything as the US is not bound to anything.

[Oceander]

Since Congress was not consulted in this treaty which is required per Constitution, this 'deal' or whatever it is, is not legitimate anyway. 

So there is no problem to start with in violating anything as the US is not bound to anything.

It’s valid as an executive agreement, but that still falls far short of being a treaty.

[XenaLee]

Netanyahu Says Better To Face Iran Sooner Rather Than Later

Israel will do what’s needed to block Iranian aggression, sooner rather than later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday.

“Nations that didn’t act in time against murderous aggression against them paid a much higher price later on,” said Netanyahu, who often invokes European powers’ 1938 agreement to let Nazi Germany annex portions of Czechoslovakia. “We don’t seek escalation, but are prepared for any scenario.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-06/israel-pm-better-to-confront-iran-sooner-rather-than-later?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=bd&utm_campaign=headline&cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo

Netty's right.  Why wait until Iran is 'fully nuked up'.   Putting it off will only make victory harder and more costly and painful for Americans.   Get it over with.

[TomSea]

President Trump to Announce Decision on Iranian Nuclear Deal at 2 PM on Tuesday

by TheTower.org Staff | 05.07.18 5:56 pm

President Donald Trump said that he will make his decision about whether or not the United States will stay in the nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday May 8 at 2 PM, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

http://www.thetower.org/6233-president-trump-to-announce-decision-on-iranian-nuclear-deal-at-2-pm-on-tuesday/

We should know within 24 hours, what we are going to do.

[TomSea]

Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt, at least those 4 countries are all pretty close together if radiation, the like were ever an issue. I'll bet most families in Israel have a working fallout shelter.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

It’s valid as an executive agreement, but that still falls far short of being a treaty.

An Executive Agreement?

When I read the difference between that and a treaty, the former is politically binding whereas the latter is legally binding.

A politically binding agreement does not seem to mean much compared to the legal agreement.

[TomSea]

Will the allies talk us out of withdrawing?

[TomSea]

Trump to unveil Iran decision Tuesday; Europeans move his way
Steve Holland, Parisa Hafezi

...

Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the deal, which eased economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran limiting its nuclear program, unless France, Germany and Britain - which also signed the agreement - fix what he has called its flaws.

The senior U.S. official said the European allies had moved significantly in Trump’s direction on what he sees as the defects - the failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, the terms under which international inspectors visit suspected Iranian sites, and “sunset” clauses under which some terms expire.

The official did not know, however, if the Europeans had done enough to convince Trump to remain in the deal.

Read more at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear/trump-to-unveil-iran-decision-tuesday-europeans-move-his-way-idUSKBN1I8284

A lot more to the article, they expect us to withdraw, so we would sanction Iran, etc. but those five other countries, Russia, UK, France, Germany and China. would still be signatories to it.

[TomSea]

Trump poised to ignore warnings and scrap Iran nuclear deal

President Trump is expected to scrap the nuclear deal with Iran today despite last-ditch attempts by Boris Johnson to persuade him of its merits.

The foreign secretary warned that the West could be forced to take military action against Tehran if Mr Trump tore up the deal. Mr Johnson used an appearance on Fox and Friends, the president’s favourite television show, to urge him not to “throw the baby out with the bathwater”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/trump-poised-to-ignore-warnings-and-scrap-iran-nuclear-deal-dnm0mb5j9

So, this was a campaign issue for Trump, it would look like going back on what he said, we already delayed it one time. I certainly wouldn't want to see us compelled to take military action but maybe that is what it will take. One for the Neo-Cons.