It’s Time for Real Talk about North Korea

[EasyAce]

No, Kim Jong-un is not going to give up his nuclear weapons
By David French
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/its-time-for-real-talk-about-north-korea/

I must confess that I’m completely puzzled — even mystified — by the wild optimism surrounding the imminent summit meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump. There’s talk of a Nobel Peace Prize. The word “denuclearization” hangs in the air. It’s finally happening, some people seem to believe. The combination of Trump’s bad cop and South Korea’s good cop has brought the North to the table, for real this time.

No. Stop.

Pause for one second and look at the events of the last several months from the North Korean perspective — especially from the perspective of a people steeped in the belief of their own cultural and racial superiority. And when you do, you’ll understand that nuclear weapons aren’t just central to their nation’s military strategy, they’re a key part of the North Korean national identity . . .

. . . [N]ow those missiles have validated North Korean power. Now those missiles — married with nuclear warheads — have put it front and center on the world stage. So now it’s going to disarm?

What is North Korea without its missile program? It’s a ninth-rate nation with a decaying conventional arsenal and zero meaningful leverage over any nation besides South Korea. North Korea without its nuclear weapons is a mere blip on the American radar screen, a minor legacy irritant left over from a long-ended Cold War. Denuclearization? It’s not happening.

The North has long exploited partisan wishful thinking to engineer extraordinarily favorable “deals” from a series of American and South Korean presidents . . .

. . . It’s important to understand why Trump’s belligerent tweets haven’t fundamentally changed the dynamic. There is a profound difference between bluster and true saber-rattling. Bluster is words. Saber-rattling is deployments. Saber-rattling is a cocked pistol pointed at your enemy’s head. And the North knows full well that there hasn’t been a substantial change in the disposition of allied forces . . .