Presence Is Not Deterrence
By Lieutenant Joseph Hanacek, U.S.
Forward-deployed Navy submarines, ships, and aircraft can bring military force to bear on any potential enemy within a day’s time. But power projection alone is insufficient to prevent conflict.
In pursuit of its sailing direction to “operate forward,†the U.S. Navy seems to have confused presence with deterrence and, in so doing, hampered its ability to maintain, train, and equip its forces effectively and sustainably.
Deterrence is hard to quantify. There are too many variables, too many unknown factors, to say with certainty that one event did not occur because another event did. Even so, deterring future conflict is a fundamental and worthwhile national objective, and it remains critical that the armed forces play their part in achieving it.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2018-04/presence-not-deterrence-0
