In Historic Reversal, Republicans Are Likely To Retain Control Of Congress

[240B]

The Daily Caller
STEWART LAWRENCE
3:24 PM 04/05/2018

It’s called the “mid-term curse”: first-term presidents suffer a loss of appeal and voters decide to punish them at the polls. It happened to President Obama in 2010. Republicans rode a Tea Party wave to regain control of the House of Representatives in one of the most momentous election turnarounds in US history.

Will Democrats follow suit and recapture the House from Republicans this fall? 

Predictions of a “Blue Wave” inundating the GOP in the November mid-terms abound. Everyone from polling expert Nate Silver to never-Trumper Ed Gilgore say one is coming.  It will stoke the Democrats’ ambition to impeach Trump and completely stall the GOP agenda, they say.

(more)
http://dailycaller.com/2018/04/05/in-historic-reversal-republicans-are-likely-to-retain-control-of-congress/

[libertybele]

The Daily Caller
STEWART LAWRENCE
3:24 PM 04/05/2018

It’s called the “mid-term curse”: first-term presidents suffer a loss of appeal and voters decide to punish them at the polls. It happened to President Obama in 2010. Republicans rode a Tea Party wave to regain control of the House of Representatives in one of the most momentous election turnarounds in US history.

Will Democrats follow suit and recapture the House from Republicans this fall? 

Predictions of a “Blue Wave” inundating the GOP in the November mid-terms abound. Everyone from polling expert Nate Silver to never-Trumper Ed Gilgore say one is coming.  It will stoke the Democrats’ ambition to impeach Trump and completely stall the GOP agenda, they say.

(more)
http://dailycaller.com/2018/04/05/in-historic-reversal-republicans-are-likely-to-retain-control-of-congress/

This op-ed piece is very optimistic considering that the DEMS have been winning the special elections. Has the GOP done anything to ensure that they retain their majority?  No repeal.  Certainly no accommodating Trump's wall. No moving conservatism forward. What promises have they fulfilled that they campaigned on?  I think it is perhaps foolish to think that they will retain their majority, especially when leadership never changed and therefore, neither did the results. 

The article brings up gerrymandering by the GOP, which may have given them an advantage, but didn't the courts rule in favor of the DEMS?

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

I can't view articles from dailycaller.  This one, for example, wants to run 81 different scripts from 12 different sites on my computer.  Yeah, um, not gonna happen.

That said, I do wonder if the article matches the headline.  My understanding is that the POTUS party usually loses seats in the midterms, which is quite different from losing control.

[INVAR]

Well, the guy running for the GOP State Rep in my district who knocked on the door this afternoon to chat indicates that most of the voters he has talked to on his 'list' (apparently I am still listed as a registered Republican), are disgusted to the point he said he might actually lose to the Democrat in November if he wins the nomination (which he should because his opponent in the primary is also running for a judgeship and doesn't want to be a state rep anymore).  After my quip about being done with his party - he hung his head and said that is a common thread running though most of the conversations he is having while pressing the flesh in the county.  Based on his own experiences locally - he does not think the Republicans are going to retain the House at all.

[Free Vulcan]

What a bunch of bs. There is no pattern of losing Congress in the first mid-term. It's only happened to Obama, Clinton, Eisenhower, and Truman in the last 100 years, and Eisenhower had a razor thin margin coming into office to begin with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

[Chosen Daughter]

Well, the guy running for the GOP State Rep in my district who knocked on the door this afternoon to chat indicates that most of the voters he has talked to on his 'list' (apparently I am still listed as a registered Republican), are disgusted to the point he said he might actually lose to the Democrat in November if he wins the nomination (which he should because his opponent in the primary is also running for a judgeship and doesn't want to be a state rep anymore).  After my quip about being done with his party - he hung his head and said that is a common thread running though most of the conversations he is having while pressing the flesh in the county.  Based on his own experiences locally - he does not think the Republicans are going to retain the House at all.

Certainly is true with me.  I am hoping for Conservative Party to come through as the party to replace the failed GOP who have lost their way.

[To-Whose-Benefit?]

Certainly is true with me.  I am hoping for Conservative Party to come through as the party to replace the failed GOP who have lost their way.

After 8 years of Hope?

If wishes were horses, . . . .

We don't have any option in the real world but to destroy the Democrats as a precondition to cleaning up/reforming/Conservatizing the GOP.

The DNC is $16 Million in the red. They can put money into special elections now but when the general election comes how are they gonna treat Every seat as a Special Election they can afford to buy?

Splitting the ticket with an honest, upright, 'Just We Wanted' 3rd Party/Movement will kill us.

Finish off the hard left before you go chasing the perfect.

[edpc]

What a bunch of bs. There is no pattern of losing Congress in the first mid-term. It's only happened to Obama, Clinton, Eisenhower, and Truman in the last 100 years, and Eisenhower had a razor thin margin coming into office to begin with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

It's not necessarily the loss of the House or Senate that's historic, but the loss of seats, in general.

[Concerned]

This op-ed piece is very optimistic considering that the DEMS have been winning the special elections. Has the GOP done anything to ensure that they retain their majority?  No repeal.  Certainly no accommodating Trump's wall. No moving conservatism forward. What promises have they fulfilled that they campaigned on?  I think it is perhaps foolish to think that they will retain their majority, especially when leadership never changed and therefore, neither did the results. 

The article brings up gerrymandering by the GOP, which may have given them an advantage, but didn't the courts rule in favor of the DEMS?

Exactly right IMO.  The key to mid-term elections is often voter turnout.  Which party is more energized to get out the vote?  Looking at elections since the inauguration from the AL Senate race to the PA 18th to the VA Governor race, Democratic turnout has been relatively high.  "The Resistance" is clearly motivated much like Republicans were in 2010 against Obama when the GOP picked up 6 seats in the Senate and 63 in the House.  The Republicans have a distinct advantage this year in the Senate since the Dems are defending so many more seats, but I can't see the GOP retaining the House.  Since the end of World War II, the party in control of the White House has, on average, lost 26 House seats in midterm elections.  Just that average would be enough to flip the House. 

[Mesaclone]

Certainly is true with me.  I am hoping for Conservative Party to come through as the party to replace the failed GOP who have lost their way.

And how will having a Conservative Party snatching 10-15 percent of the Republican vote help move the country away from the radical Leftism of the Schumer/Pelosi/Hillary axis?

How will ensuring far more democrats get elected to both Houses of Congress AND eventually the White House make this a more conservative nation?

The GOP May be perpetually disappointing...as it is limited by narrow majorities and the need to keep a broad Right-of-Center coalition together...but what the Dems will bring you is a ton more Left wing judges, more weaponization of our Fed law enforcement against their enemies(conservatives), a weak military...AND...legalization of 20 million illegals as opposed to 1.8 (With a true wall, everify, better border enforcement), and the loss entirely of your 2nd amendment rights.

So instead of a GOP that can only get a partial bit of the conservative agenda moved forward, you will get the active and perhaps irreversible horror of a Socialist agenda shoved down your throat.

Smart.

[aligncare]

This op-ed piece is very optimistic considering that the DEMS have been winning the special elections. Has the GOP done anything to ensure that they retain their majority?  No repeal.  Certainly no accommodating Trump's wall. No moving conservatism forward. What promises have they fulfilled that they campaigned on?  I think it is perhaps foolish to think that they will retain their majority, especially when leadership never changed and therefore, neither did the results. 

The article brings up gerrymandering by the GOP, which may have given them an advantage, but didn't the courts rule in favor of the DEMS?

Special elections are generally about local candidates and local issues. Mid-terms however reflect national mood and tend to be a referendum on the president and his party.

[aligncare]

And how will having a Conservative Party snatching 10-15 percent of the Republican vote help move the country away from the radical Leftism of the Schumer/Pelosi/Hillary axis?

How will ensuring far more democrats get elected to both Houses of Congress AND eventually the White House make this a more conservative nation?

The GOP May be perpetually disappointing...as it is limited by narrow majorities and the need to keep a broad Right-of-Center coalition together...but what the Dems will bring you is a ton more Left wing judges, more weaponization of our Fed law enforcement against their enemies(conservatives), a weak military...AND...legalization of 20 million illegals as opposed to 1.8 (With a true wall, everify, better border enforcement), and the loss entirely of your 2nd amendment rights.

So instead of a GOP that can only get a partial bit of the conservative agenda moved forward, you will get the active and perhaps irreversible horror of a Socialist agenda shoved down your throat.

Smart.

Agree. Now is not the time to bail on the GOP as we are a nation that is culturally divided, with ownership of the culture firmly in the hands of Hollywood and the opinion makers in the elite media centers of New York and LA. Until we can wrest control of the culture from their hands, it would be unwise to dilute the GOP’s political power with third party votes or worse, votes for democrats.

Work to change the GOP into a more Conservative party. That’s the answer.

[Axeslinger]

And how will having a Conservative Party snatching 10-15 percent of the Republican vote help move the country away from the radical Leftism of the Schumer/Pelosi/Hillary axis?

How will ensuring far more democrats get elected to both Houses of Congress AND eventually the White House make this a more conservative nation?

The GOP May be perpetually disappointing...as it is limited by narrow majorities and the need to keep a broad Right-of-Center coalition together...but what the Dems will bring you is a ton more Left wing judges, more weaponization of our Fed law enforcement against their enemies(conservatives), a weak military...AND...legalization of 20 million illegals as opposed to 1.8 (With a true wall, everify, better border enforcement), and the loss entirely of your 2nd amendment rights.

So instead of a GOP that can only get a partial bit of the conservative agenda moved forward, you will get the active and perhaps irreversible horror of a Socialist agenda shoved down your throat.

Smart.

@Mesaclone

Doing the same thing over and over and over again, expecting different results.

Insane

[Right_in_Virginia]

And how will having a Conservative Party snatching 10-15 percent of the Republican vote help move the country away from the radical Leftism of the Schumer/Pelosi/Hillary axis?

How will ensuring far more democrats get elected to both Houses of Congress AND eventually the White House make this a more conservative nation?  .... 

Two essential questions @Mesaclone  ... I'm looking forward to reading the answers. 

[Concerned]

Agree. Now is not the time to bail on the GOP as we are a nation that is culturally divided with ownership of the culture firmly in the hands of Hollywood and the opinion makers in the elite media centers of New York and LA. Until we can wrest control of the culture from their hands, it would be unwise to dilute the GOP’s political power with third party votes or worse, votes for democrats.

Work to change the GOP into a more Conservative party. That’s the answer.

I feel as though the GOP have bailed on me.  When they hold the House, the Senate, and the Presidency and all three are perfectly satisfied to add trillions to the debt even though they hypocritically went after Obama for the doing much the same, I’m done with them.  I don't think they want to be a more Conservative Party.  The leader of the party wants to spend money like a drunken Obama, and the GOP leadership is just fine rubber-stamping it's approval to more and more deficit spending.  And don't get me started on the Omnibus Spending Bill.

[musiclady]

After 8 years of Hope?

If wishes were horses, . . . .

We don't have any option in the real world but to destroy the Democrats as a precondition to cleaning up/reforming/Conservatizing the GOP.

The DNC is $16 Million in the red. They can put money into special elections now but when the general election comes how are they gonna treat Every seat as a Special Election they can afford to buy?

Splitting the ticket with an honest, upright, 'Just We Wanted' 3rd Party/Movement will kill us.

Finish off the hard left before you go chasing the perfect.

Perfect??

I don't know about anyone else, but my standards do not require anything close to "perfect" (which is why I remained a Republican until 2016).

All I want is reasonable movement towards conservative standards, and a return to the acceptance of conservative moral values, which were tossed down the sewer with Trump.

There is no place in the current Republican party for Christian Conservatives.  The Party has rejected everything we stand for.

As for some midterm miracle..... the author should probably study his history a bit more before making predictions about historic reversals.

[aligncare]

I feel as though the GOP have bailed on me.  When they hold the House, the Senate, and the Presidency and all three are perfectly satisfied to add trillions to the debt even though they hypocritically went after Obama for the doing much the same, I’m done with them.  I don't think they want to be a more Conservative Party.  The leader of the party wants to spend money like a drunken Obama, and the GOP leadership is just fine rubber-stamping it's approval to more and more deficit spending.  And don't get me started on the Omnibus Spending Bill.

Yes, I agree. The GOP constantly disappoints. But, political change is glacially slow and politics reflects culture, so change must begin with culture. And in the age of Internet, we’ve at least got a shot at speeding things up. Remember, it’s been only a handful of years that our generation has stood at the threshold of this evolutionary technological change. It remains to be seen how it could all impact the human species, society and our politics.

I love the constitution as written. But, let’s be honest. The authors could never has anticipated the rapid speed of information, transportation, medical science, weaponry in our age. When facts change, we must change.

Edited to add, But, of course those changes must be inline with our underlying principles as spelled out in the constitution.

[Right_in_Virginia]

There is no place in the current Republican party for Christian Conservatives.  The Party has rejected everything we stand for. ...

This is absurd.  Christian conservative support the President to the tune of 80%.  They have more of home under President Trump than they had under President Bush ... either one of them.

[Night Hides Not]

@Mesaclone

Doing the same thing over and over and over again, expecting different results.

Insane

Yup, that's why I've gone Galt.

Lost in the rosy forecast for the GOP, and the relatively high approval numbers of Trump, is the specter of Democrats who will crawl over broken glass in November, just to vote against Trump. I suspect the turnout will be greater than what the TEA Party engineered in 2010, on the heels of the passage of Obamacare.

You don't need any money/fuel to feed that fire.

[Night Hides Not]

Perfect??

I don't know about anyone else, but my standards do not require anything close to "perfect" (which is why I remained a Republican until 2016).

All I want is reasonable movement towards conservative standards, and a return to the acceptance of conservative moral values, which were tossed down the sewer with Trump.

There is no place in the current Republican party for Christian Conservatives.  The Party has rejected everything we stand for.

As for some midterm miracle..... the author should probably study his history a bit more before making predictions about historic reversals.

Trump hammered the last nail in the coffin when he signed the bill that funded Planned Parenthood.

The caps are off on spending, and the debt limit has been "suspended" for over a year. I can only imagine what Republicans would have said had the democrats under Obama done the same thing.

[musiclady]

Trump hammered the last nail in the coffin when he signed the bill that funded Planned Parenthood.

The caps are off on spending, and the debt limit has been "suspended" for over a year. I can only imagine what Republicans would have said had the democrats under Obama done the same thing.

Agree.

When he doubled the funding for PP in that hideous spending bill, he revealed who he truly is, and what he truly believes in. (Which, of course, we knew before in spite of his campaign rhetoric).

The sheer hypocrisy among Republicans in their approval of what they claimed not to approve under Obama, is breath taking.

[Concerned]

The sheer hypocrisy among Republicans in their approval of what they claimed not to approve under Obama, is breath taking.

   @musiclady

[The_Reader_David]

What a bunch of bs. There is no pattern of losing Congress in the first mid-term. It's only happened to Obama, Clinton, Eisenhower, and Truman in the last 100 years, and Eisenhower had a razor thin margin coming into office to begin with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

The pattern is loss of seats by the party in power during the mid-term elections of a first Presidential term.  And that pattern is fairly robust, if I recall in recent times only Bush II bucked the trend, due to post-9/11 support, and that pattern goes back a long way.

[INVAR]

Splitting the ticket with an honest, upright, 'Just We Wanted' 3rd Party/Movement will kill us.

Too late.  Your party and it's leadership already killed us.  They've told us and shown us that they hold us in abject contempt and they want us and our principles GONE from their party. 

So we obliged and we're working to rescue more from the plantation. 

Finish off the hard left before you go chasing the perfect.

The Republican party is funding and pushing the Leftist agenda itself and spending us into oblivion with deficit spending faster than Pelosi and the Democrats did under Obama.  When you get rid of the Oligarchy running your party and kill all the rules it passed to keep grassroots conservatives from being nominees in national elections - then we can talk about 'finishing off the Left'.  Because it seems to me your party is being run by moderate Leftists that toss a piece of red meat to Conservatives now and then to try and keep them in the fold for their vote, but want them to shut up and swallow their own version of better managed Socialism that they feed them.

We're out.  Your party was taken over by Democrat Statists, and the head of your party is a lifelong NYC liberal Democrat.   

Your party left us in total.  We're no longer going to support it.   As I told the state rep candidate that came by my place yesterday - if they want my vote - they are going to need to get out of the GOP.

[txradioguy]

Historic since when?  The Mid-terms during W's first term when Republicans gained seats?