The robots are killing Tesla

[WingNot]

As with everything Saint Elon does, it is ass backwards.

Bernstein adds that the world's best carmakers, the Japanese, try to limit automation because it "is expensive and is statistically inversely correlated to quality." Their approach is to get the process right first, then bring in the robots — the opposite of Musk's.

Analysts at Bernstein argue that Elon Musk has over-automated Tesla.
The very robots that Musk says will revolutionize the car industry are baking in Tesla's mistakes and costing far more money than they're worth, they say.
The robots are killing Tesla.

In a rare win for humans over robots in the battle for labor efficiency, Wall Street analysts have laid down a compelling argument that over-automation is to blame for problems at the billionaire Elon Musk's electric-car company.

That is to say, the very innovation and competitive advantage that Musk says he's bringing to the car industry — his nearly fully automated plant in Fremont, California — is the reason Tesla is unable to scale quickly.

According to the Bernstein analysts Max Warburton and Toni Sacconaghi, it's the robots that can't pump out Tesla's highly anticipated Model 3s fast enough. The whole process is too ambitious, risky, and complicated.

From Bernstein (emphasis ours):

"Tesla has tried to hyper-automate final assembly. We believe Tesla has been too ambitious with automation on the Model 3 line. Few have seen it (the plant is off-limits at present), but we know this: Tesla has spent c.2x what a traditional OEM spends per unit on capacity.

"It has ordered huge numbers of Kuka robots. It has not only automated stamping, paint and welding (as most other OEMs do) — it has also tried to automate final assembly (putting parts into the car). It talks of two-level final lines with robots automating parts sequencing. This is where Tesla seems to be facing problems (as well as in welding & battery pack assembly)."

Warburton, who spent his career before Wall Street at the International Motor Vehicle Program — a partly academic, partly commercial organization based at MIT — wrote that "automation in final assembly doesn't work."

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robots-are-killing-it-2018-3

[Frank Cannon]

2018 will be the final model year for Tesla. Bank on it.

BTW all the Tesla freaks touting how revolutionary these cars are seem to forget a while back there was another car that was touted to move the auto industry decades ahead in design and function. Modular parts would make servicing a snap and it's efficiency and design was revolutionary..........the Chevrolet Citation. Anyone remember how that turned out?

[Joe Wooten]

2018 will be the final model year for Tesla. Bank on it.

BTW all the Tesla freaks touting how revolutionary these cars are seem to forget a while back there was another car that was touted to move the auto industry decades ahead in design and function. Modular parts would make servicing a snap and it's efficiency and design was revolutionary..........the Chevrolet Citation. Anyone remember how that turned out?

The wife had that piece of $hit car when we got married. I got rid of it inside 6 months.

[Frank Cannon]

The wife had that piece of $hit car when we got married. I got rid of it inside 6 months.

They were a real turd, but in the late 70's GM was touting it as a design marvel because you would take the car in for service and they would just plug in another whole engine in an hour from the rack of engines in the parts dept. Then the old engine that needed a new spark plug would be sent to a central plant for reconditioning and sent back to the dealer to stick in poor handling sedan.

It was such a disaster that it was supposed to replace the Nova during the big downsize of 77 and 78 but they couldn't figure out how the hell to build a small front drive car and had parts problems. Hell, even the radio was so stupid that you were forced to buy a Delco one to upgrade because no other stereo makers were doing vertical radios.

[WingNot]

I hope someone got fired over that idea.

[Joe Wooten]

They were a real turd, but in the late 70's GM was touting it as a design marvel because you would take the car in for service and they would just plug in another whole engine in an hour from the rack of engines in the parts dept. Then the old engine that needed a new spark plug would be sent to a central plant for reconditioning and sent back to the dealer to stick in poor handling sedan.

It was such a disaster that it was supposed to replace the Nova during the big downsize of 77 and 78 but they couldn't figure out how the hell to build a small front drive car and had parts problems. Hell, even the radio was so stupid that you were forced to buy a Delco one to upgrade because no other stereo makers were doing vertical radios.

Back in those days I did most of my regular maintenance work on vehicles. I went to go change the oil in that POS car and found that to get to the oil filter, I had to take off the right front wheel. A job that took 15-20 minutes on my Ranger and Sirocco took almost an hour. I was cursing that car mightily by the time I was done. Tune-ups were impossible, and you had to go buy a special wrench from the dealer to change the fuel filter. A crescent wrench would not fit in the tight space and it was a completely non-standard size.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

IMO Silly valley has too much faith in technology and automation. As a System Administrator, I know how buggy all of these systems are, and I fear robots taking everyone's job way less than people not in technology. I have seen the future and humans are going no where.

[Joe Wooten]

IMO Silly valley has too much faith in technology and automation. As a System Administrator, I know how buggy all of these systems are, and I fear robots taking everyone's job way less than people not in technology. I have seen the future and humans are going no where.

Agreed!!!

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Back in those days I did most of my regular maintenance work on vehicles. I went to go change the oil in that POS car and found that to get to the oil filter, I had to take off the right front wheel. A job that took 15-20 minutes on my Ranger and Sirocco took almost an hour. I was cursing that car mightily by the time I was done. Tune-ups were impossible, and you had to go buy a special wrench from the dealer to change the fuel filter. A crescent wrench would not fit in the tight space and it was a completely non-standard size.

Technological advances and reduced manufacturing quality by American automakers like that caused me to spend the next two decades buying exclusively Japanese cars.  They were all well built and lasted long enough, except one.

Only time I had a problem is when I bought a 94 2 door Camry for my daughter, similar to the 4 door Camry my wife drove.  The 2 door had an engine overheat at only about 75k miles and I had to get rid of it.   Never had any issue with the 4 door and drove it 180k. 

The problem I am convinced was the 4 door was assembled in Japan but the 2 door was assembled in the US.

I could not even escape the low US quality back then even buying a foreign car.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Technological advances and reduced manufacturing quality by American automakers like that caused me to spend the next two decades buying exclusively Japanese cars.  They were all well built and lasted long enough, except one.

Only time I had a problem is when I bought a 94 2 door Camry for my daughter, similar to the 4 door Camry my wife drove.  The 2 door had an engine overheat at only about 75k miles and I had to get rid of it.   Never had any issue with the 4 door and drove it 180k. 

The problem I am convinced was the 4 door was assembled in Japan but the 2 door was assembled in the US.

I could not even escape the low US quality back then even buying a foreign car.

In the early 90's, a popular Toyota (I THINK it was the Camry) was part-for-part, the same as a Chevy (don't remember the model, but by definition it was a POS).  And a Mazda 626 was a Ford something-or-other (Fiestiva, Focus, Failure?).

I don't remember the details, just that the Toyota dealership was open on the weekends and I sometimes ordered "Chevy" parts from them.

@Frank Cannon  ?

[DB]

Technological advances and reduced manufacturing quality by American automakers like that caused me to spend the next two decades buying exclusively Japanese cars.  They were all well built and lasted long enough, except one.

Only time I had a problem is when I bought a 94 2 door Camry for my daughter, similar to the 4 door Camry my wife drove.  The 2 door had an engine overheat at only about 75k miles and I had to get rid of it.   Never had any issue with the 4 door and drove it 180k. 

The problem I am convinced was the 4 door was assembled in Japan but the 2 door was assembled in the US.

I could not even escape the low US quality back then even buying a foreign car.

If it was the V6 version, the head gasket blew pretty reliably at around 75k miles. They quickly lost water and over heated...

[DB]

The "robot" autopilots are also killing their owners.

[Frank Cannon]

If it was the V6 version, the head gasket blew pretty reliably at around 75k miles. They quickly lost water and over heated...

Yup. The other problem with those Jap engines was the rubber they used. It got hard and turned into a plastic type brittle and caused all sorts of leaks and headaches.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

If it was the V6 version, the head gasket blew pretty reliably at around 75k miles. They quickly lost water and over heated...

No, both Camrys were 4 cylinders, exactly the same down to the paint job except the # of doors and assembly point.