Ben Shapiro@benshapiro
In the seven special elections held in 2017, the average shift from 2016 results was D+16. Tonight, it's D+20. 2018 will be very, very ugly unless something cataclysmic happens for GOP.
Worth noting: all the normal factors should be cutting in GOP favor, outside of being the party in power. The economy is good, and we have no serious foreign crises. Which says that the popularity of the president is a serious factor in Democratic turnout.
All the talk about Lamb running as a Republican is beside the point. He's a Democrat tailored for the district. If Democrats are smart enough to run non-Pelosi types in red districts, that will exacerbate the GOP wipeout.
And as @ezraklein notes, there are 118 Republican-held seats that went for Trump by fewer points than PA-18. The vast majority will go Republican, of course. But Dems only need 24.