Poll: Republican barely leading in Pennsylvania special election

[mystery-ak]

Poll: Republican barely leading in Pennsylvania special election

The survey is the latest warning sign in a district that Donald Trump won by 20 points. The election is March 13.

By ELENA SCHNEIDER

02/15/2018 01:09 PM EST


Republican Rick Saccone holds a slim lead over Democrat Conor Lamb in the special election for a Western Pennsylvania congressional seat, according to a Monmouth University poll released Thursday.

Saccone leads Lamb, 49 percent to 46 percent, the poll shows — only a marginal edge for Republicans in a district that supported President Donald Trump by 20 points in 2016. Another 4 percent are undecided, and 1 percent support a third-party candidate.

The poll used a turnout model "similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year," according to a memo from Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. Democrats have fared well in those special elections, running close behind Republicans in a handful of House races contested in GOP-friendly territory, and capturing a Senate seat in Alabama last December.

More traditional turnout models give Saccone a slight boost. Using a model that forecasts lower turnout than the last midterm election, in 2014, Saccone leads by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. A turnout model that looks more like the 2016 presidential electorate shows Saccone up by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent.

"Saccone has a slight edge, but it's nowhere near the double-digit advantage Republicans typically enjoy in this district," Murray said. "The potential for a Democratic surge like we have seen in other special elections helps Lamb stay in the hunt, but it does not close the gap entirely."

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/15/poll-pennsylvania-rick-saccone-conor-lamb-348959?lo=ap_f1

[Frank Cannon]

This election isn't what Polutico makes you think it is. First off a part of this district is in Pitt. It's Commie central. Secondly the Rat running is bashing Pelosi and the Rats. Also the GOP is running some fat old man with a record.....again. Why can't they dig up some fresh blood?

My bet is that the GOP wins this because I think the Rat has hit his ceiling. These numbers are factoring in him getting 100% turnout in Pitt. I doubt that.

[Applewood]

This election isn't what Polutico makes you think it is. First off a part of this district is in Pitt. It's Commie central. Secondly the Rat running is bashing Pelosi and the Rats. Also the GOP is running some fat old man with a record.....again. Why can't they dig up some fresh blood?

My bet is that the GOP wins this because I think the Rat has hit his ceiling. These numbers are factoring in him getting 100% turnout in Pitt. I doubt that.

Well, Connor Lamb is now trotting out the old "Republicans are going to take away SS and Medicare" line again.  Sadly, in this part of the state at least, that line has been very successful. 

Republicans in this state, and particularly in this end of the state, get nowhere in politics unless they behave like the Democrats. 

Hey, at least in this race, the Republicans actually fielded a candidate.  Around here, in many elections, the Democrats run unopposed.

[Emjay]

This election isn't what Polutico makes you think it is. First off a part of this district is in Pitt. It's Commie central. Secondly the Rat running is bashing Pelosi and the Rats. Also the GOP is running some fat old man with a record.....again. Why can't they dig up some fresh blood?

My bet is that the GOP wins this because I think the Rat has hit his ceiling. These numbers are factoring in him getting 100% turnout in Pitt. I doubt that.

Thanks for explaining that.  I hope the fat old man with a record pulls it out.

[Emjay]

Well, Connor Lamb is now trotting out the old "Republicans are going to take away SS and Medicare" line again.  Sadly, in this part of the state at least, that line has been very successful. 

Republicans in this state, and particularly in this end of the state, get nowhere in politics unless they behave like the Democrats. 

Hey, at least in this race, the Republicans actually fielded a candidate.  Around here, in many elections, the Democrats run unopposed.

Well, I looked the dude up.  Yeah, he could stand to lose a few pounds but he is 59.  That is not old , congressionally speaking.  He is on the right side of many issues, including gun rights, abortion and a bunch of other things. 

[LauraTXNM]

This election isn't what Polutico makes you think it is. First off a part of this district is in Pitt. It's Commie central. Secondly the Rat running is bashing Pelosi and the Rats. Also the GOP is running some fat old man with a record.....again. Why can't they dig up some fresh blood?

My bet is that the GOP wins this because I think the Rat has hit his ceiling. These numbers are factoring in him getting 100% turnout in Pitt. I doubt that.

Wasn't this a pretty safe R seat?  How much damage did the Tim Murphy "scandal" cause?

[jmyrlefuller]

They're using an Alabama turnout model.

You know, the one where the Democrat was the golden boy and even the Republican Party claimed the Republican was a child molester.

Yeah. That's such a realistic expectation. /sarc

[Applewood]

Well, I looked the dude up.  Yeah, he could stand to lose a few pounds but he is 59.  That is not old , congressionally speaking.  He is on the right side of many issues, including gun rights, abortion and a bunch of other things.

Yes, but in his campaign ads he talks about working with the Democrats.  I've had enough of "bipartisanship" and "compromise."

But who cares what I think?  I can't vote in this election because I'm not in that district.  My rep is the idiot, Mike Doyle.