Russian jet crashes after Moscow take-off

[Oceander]

You may want to ask "Sully" Sullenberger about bird strikes. 

Why?  Like I said, there are about 10k reported bird strikes a year, so that was obviously an exception.

[TomSea]

Russian Plane Was 'Intact' When It Hit The Ground

A Russian passenger jet that crashed outside Moscow was intact when it hit the ground and exploded upon or after impact, the country's top investigative agency says.

In a statement on February 12, the Investigative Committee said there was no fire aboard the plane when it crashed shortly after takeoff from Domodedovo airport, killing all 71 passengers and crew.

"It has been determined that at the moment of the crash the aircraft was intact [and was] not on fire," it said. "An explosion occurred after the plane crashed."

More: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-plane-crash-tough-conditions-hampering-search-71-killed/29034800.html

They've found one of the black boxes.

[Suppressed]

"It has been determined that at the moment of the crash the aircraft was intact [and was] not on fire," it said. "An explosion occurred after the plane crashed."

...which contradicts the earlier witness report.

[edpc]

...which contradicts the earlier witness report.

One report I had read said an engine was on fire. There had to be some kind of problem with one, based on the graph posted by @txradioguy.

[TomSea]

Here's a good analysis:

For unknown reasons, Captain Valery Gubanov declined to have the plane de-iced. The An-148 has a special heating system for its hull, however, and pilots point out that the aircraft would not have been able to reach an altitude of two kilometers (6,500 feet), if icing had caused the crash. Nevertheless, Russia’s Investigative Committee says it’s treating bad weather conditions as one of the potential explanations for the incident.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2018/02/12/what-happened-to-the-russian-plane-that-crashed-outside-moscow-on-february-11-here-are-the-leading-theories

That's what I think about planes flying in cold weather, how they can be iced up though, it doesn't seem to pose a real problem (assuming de-icing is done).

Whatever happened, the plane fell so quickly that the pilots didn't have time to report it to air traffic control. The An-148 was only in the air for a few minutes: the crew received permission to climb to cruising altitude, and afterwards they simply stopped responding. Early reports that the pilots requested an emergency landing in Zhukovsky were unconfirmed. Flight tracking data shows that the plane's altitude (the blue curve in the image below) gradually increased, briefly dipped, and then leveled off, before suddenly plummeting.

[TomSea]

...which contradicts the earlier witness report.

There's also the rumor it collided with a helicopter. Somehow that idea got started as well.

[edpc]

Here's a good analysis:

That's what I think about planes flying in cold weather, how they can be iced up though, it doesn't seem to pose a real problem (assuming it is done).

Similar to Air Florida FL 90 back in 1982.  A pitot tube was obstructed and gave the pilots a false reading on their true take-off speed.  That, combined with the wing icing caused them to stall and drop into the frozen Potomac.

[sneakypete]

They've found one of the black boxes.

@TomSea

Should be interesting to see what they find out. A total flame out of all engines and electrics at the same time is most likely pretty damn rare. I wonder if somebody forgot to refuel it?

[sneakypete]

Here's a good analysis:

That's what I think about planes flying in cold weather, how they can be iced up though, it doesn't seem to pose a real problem (assuming de-icing is done).

@TomSea

Bad weather is nothing new to Russian pilots or ground crews.

[Neverdul]

Similar to Air Florida FL 90 back in 1982.  A pitot tube was obstructed and gave the pilots a false reading on their true take-off speed.  That, combined with the wing icing caused them to stall and drop into the frozen Potomac.

I remember that well. I was on a skiing vacation in Vermont with some friends and came back to the condo to see the news.  Something about it made me feel uneasy especially when I saw the several cars and trucks had been hit on the 14th Street Bridge, so I called my mother. My brother at the time was working as a courier for Purolator back when they were trying to compete with Fed Ex and UPS.  I knew my brother worked a route in DC and northern VA afternoon/evening shift.

It turns out that my brother barely missed being the bridge when the plane hit. He was running a bit ahead of schedule and stopped at a McDonald's drive through to get a cup of coffee.

[Sanguine]

Why are we looking for a "natural" cause?

Passengers Killed on Crashed Russian Plane Allegedly Include Rosatom/UraniumOne Executive and Russian Source for Christopher Steele's "Dossier" against Trump

As most the world knows by now, a plane crashed in Russia this morning a few minutes after takeoff, killing everyone aboard. 

As Russian authorities released passenger names on the official Death list, several of those now-deceased names raised immediate "red flags" because they appear to be directly connected to the Hillary Clinton / Barack Obama UraniumOne Conspiracy and to the (fake) "Russian Dossier" used to smear President Trump.
....

Sergei Millian, a Belarus-born businessman who briefly worked with the Trump Organization and was reportedly a key source in the explosive dossier alleging ties between President Donald Trump and Russia, was in the spotlight following release of testimony before the House Intelligence Committee...


http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/2053-passengers-killed-on-crashed-russian-plane-include-cfo-of-rosatom-uraniumone-and-russian-source-for-christopher-steele-s-dossier-against-trump

[mountaineer]

Why are we looking for a "natural" cause?

I referenced that on p. 1 of this thread.  Have seen a lot of chatter about this on Facebook and Twitter today.

[Neverdul]

Why are we looking for a "natural" cause?

@Sanguine

I would be more inclined to take that seriously if you have a better source for this than Hall Turner.

Nope. Not clicking that link.

 

[Sanguine]

@Sanguine

I would be more inclined to take that seriously if you have a better source for this than Hall Turner.

Nope. Not clicking that link.

 

There are others, this is just the first one I came across.

[Neverdul]

There are others, this is just the first one I came across.

Are any of them credible?

FWIW

Anti-Trump Harvard Professor Floats Fake Claim That Dossier Source Died In Russia Plane Crash

http://dailycaller.com/2018/02/12/harvard-professor-claims-source-died-plane-crash/

[edpc]

There are others, this is just the first one I came across.

Turner is a loon.  He went to jail for saying a group of federal judges deserved to be killed.  He tried to defend the comments with the 1st Amendment and also by saying he was trying to smoke out Neo-Nazis for the feds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hal-turner-right-wing-blogger-going-to-prison-for-threatening-federal-judges/

[sneakypete]

Why are we looking for a "natural" cause?

@Sanguine

Because "accident/parts failure" are usually what causes crashes.

No need to start at conspiracy theory until there are no other viable options.

[TomSea]

Russia plane crash raises new questions about safety of Antonov jet
By Associated Press
Feb 12, 2018 | 5:35 PM
| Moscow

Wading through knee-deep snow, hundreds of emergency workers searched a vast field near Moscow on Monday for remains of the 71 victims from the crash of a Russian airliner, and aviation experts began deciphering the jet's two flight recorders.

Investigators quickly ruled out a terrorist attack in Sunday's crash of the An-148 regional jet bound for Orsk in the southern Urals. The air disaster has reignited questions, however, about the twin-engine plane that was developed jointly by Russia and Ukraine but phased out of production amid the political crisis between the neighbors.

The model has a spotty safety record, with one previous crash and a string of major incidents in which pilots struggled to land safely. The carrier, Saratov Airlines, has grounded several other An-148s in its fleet pending the crash investigation.

Read more at: http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-russia-crash-investigation-20180212-story.html